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February 5, 2020

The True Rate of Healthcare Inflation

Summary:

While insurance premiums soared 288% over 20 years, even as deductibles soared, the official rate of healthcare inflation was 107%. Hmm.

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The chart below compares the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics’ inflation calculations for Medical Care versus the Kaiser Family Foundation’s research into how much insurance premiums have been increasing. The differences between the two calculations are huge. From 1998 – 2018, the government estimates that health costs have increased by only 107%, but for some reason insurance premiums have increased 288%. In fact, 288% is a material understatement, because that figure does not include the huge increases in deductibles.

One might say, “Well, this means the insurance companies are overcharging!” That is a possibility, but if the insurance commissioners of America are that bad at reviewing rate filings, which I doubt, then all the insurance commissioners and their staffs should be replaced ASAP. Another reason I don’t think the difference can be accounted for by declaring insurance companies are grossly overcharging is that the ACA to some degree limits their profit margin, and a review of their financials finds profit margins that do not suggest massive overcharging.

Another perspective is that government-sponsored healthcare expenses do not increase nearly as much as the costs covered by insurance companies. Medical care is medical care, unless if under government programs patients get materially less care or the insurance companies subsidize government programs by overcharging everyone that buys their own insurance.

A third alternative is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ numbers are just plain wrong. I trust the Kaiser numbers because they are associated with Kaiser Permanente Insurance, so they know what premiums are being charged. Premiums are easier to verify, too.

See also: The Science That Is Reinventing Healthcare  

In your day-to-day world, what difference does all this make? Maybe none except by adding to your humor or frustrations. Or, perhaps the difference adds to your conspiracy theories. In selling benefits, though, I think seeing the discrepancy helps the intelligent and educated producer sell and advise the educated and intelligent buyer. Understanding the true inflation of medical care will help people make better decisions.

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About the Author

Chris Burand is president and owner of Burand & Associates, a management consulting firm specializing in the property-casualty insurance industry. Chris is recognized as a leading consultant for agency valuations and is one of very few consultants with a certification in business appraisal.

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