5 Ways Data Allows for Value-Based Care
Advanced analytics can help healthcare organizations understand what might happen in the future and what actions they should consider.
Advanced analytics can help healthcare organizations understand what might happen in the future and what actions they should consider.
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Eileen Cianciolo is chief product officer at SCIO Health Analytics. She has 25 years of experience in the healthcare industry, including leadership roles in product management, product development and operations.
Digital playbooks are already in use. Does your company have a strategy to embrace the digital age and shift to Digital Insurance 2.0 to drive growth?
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Denise Garth is senior vice president, strategic marketing, responsible for leading marketing, industry relations and innovation in support of Majesco's client-centric strategy.
Once newspapers lost classified ads, their business model fell apart. Amazon-Berkshire-JPMorgan could do the same to healthcare.
The benefits from tackling the extraordinary fraud, waste and abuse in our healthcare system is why employers can and are doing it. More importantly, the collective successes have already created a guiding framework for all healthcare purchasers—private or public. We call this framework the Health Rosetta, but we’re just aggregating these successes. Baked into virtually every U.S. healthcare industry business model is that employers are what healthcare pundit and author Matthew Holt calls “dumb price takers.” Most readily pay 2X-10x more than market-clearing prices. Chapter 6, PPO Networks Deliver Value—and Other Flawed Assumptions Crushing Your Bottom Line, spells out how this happens. I will spell out below how ABC could tackle the healthcare tapeworm (Warren Buffett’s term for the negative impact of healthcare on the U.S. economy).
See also: Whiff of Market-Based Healthcare Change?
Three key facts potentially differentiate the ABC health initiative from past employer-led efforts:
David Goldhill’s outstanding Catastrophic Care book gave an “optimistic” view of how healthcare is on track to consume half of a typical millennial’s lifetime earnings. He assumed that healthcare costs grew at half the rate of regular inflation (extremely rare—more typically, it’s 5% to 10%). As the largest generation in history, millennials are the most important generation for all of the ABC organizations. Smart employers find they are natural early adopters of Health Rosetta-type benefits programs. [See Chapter 4, Millennials Will Revolutionize Health Benefits]
6. Market clarity will show that employers are the real “insurance” companies
This is the health plan industry’s worst nightmare. There is a growing realization that because less than a third of the claims that insurance companies process actually put the insurance companies’ money at risk, “insurance” companies are more appropriately described as commoditize-able claims processors. It is self-evident that paying a third party to manage risk when they benefit from rising costs hasn’t worked out well. The smart BUCAs already understand this, which is why you see some aggressively diversifying out of the insurance business. They are happy to milk the insurance business until it goes away, but their corporate development actions clearly signal the future. For example, I heard Aetna CEO Mark Bertolini say at a Health 2.0 conference that they increasingly see themselves as a technology company with insurance on the side. [See Chapter 3, What You Don't Know About the Pressures and Constraints Facing Insurance Executives Costs You Dearly]
7. A spotlight will fall on high rates of overtreatment and misdiagnosis
ABC’s leadership will see past studies such as the Starbucks/Virginia Mason study that found that 90% of spinal procedures did not help at all. They will also be shocked to find extraordinary rates of misdiagnosis across healthcare, like what I outline in Chapter 12, Centers of Excellence: a Golden Opportunity. They will want to ensure their employees get the best possible care, which also saves tremendous money. It’s commonly known that ~50% of what we do to people in healthcare does not make them better and could make them worse. One of the foremost experts in employer benefits, Brian Klepper, estimates that 2% of the entire U.S. economy is tied up in non-evidence-based, non-value-added musculoskeletal procedures.
8. Open source will come to healthcare
As much as companies such as Amazon keep some information and code proprietary, they also actively benefit from open source. Open source software underpins major parts of Amazon’s business. Some problems are too big to tackle on your own. As big as ABC are, they aren’t big enough to tackle all of healthcare, and they don’t have dominant market share in any single geography.
Because adoption happens so slowly in healthcare, Health Rosetta is catalyzing the creation of a Wikipedia-like resource for the next 100 years of health (a group of visionary doctors call their vision Health 3.0) to dramatically accelerate the rate of adoption for successful approaches. Those insights will benefit ABC.
In the other direction, ABC should be motivated to share what they are doing with other local employers to more rapidly change norms in a given healthcare market. While the Fair Trade-like model for healthcare transactions we’re working on is non-controversial outside of healthcare, ABC can add heft and use their bully pulpit to normalize more appropriate behavior in this area. For example, legitimate, known pricing (link to a petition by a former hospital CEO) versus the arguably predatory and arbitrary pricing today would still let healthcare providers set their prices (i.e., not government-set), but pricing would be consistent and known across all payers.
One Health Rosetta component—Transparent Open Networks—already enables this. In other words, healthcare transactions could operate like every other part of the economy. Single pricing is a subtle, but critical, part of making healthcare functional. Not tackling this would be one of the biggest mistakes ABC could make.
9. Massive new capital restructuring opportunities will appear
This item could be an entire white paper, but I’ll touch on just two opportunities stemming from the above items. Hundreds of billions of dollars (if not more) have been and are being tied up in fraud, waste and abuse. As large purchasers and others begin to account for this, a subset of it can be treated as bad debt and turned into instruments that are sold to opportunistic, sophisticated investors. The subsequent collection efforts by these purchasers would be dramatic to any person or organization enabling the fraud. Second, it is well known that we have at least 40% overcapacity of hospital beds, fueled by a massive revenue bond bubble. The orderly disposition and restructuring of these assets is another massive opportunity that can be accelerated by the work of ABC and others. Outside of rural settings that have few overcapacity issues, evidence shows that hospital closings have no impact on outcomes. Freakonomics did a segment on how health outcomes actually improved when hospital cardiologists were away at a conference. This horrific story about a typical overtreatment scenario leading to bad outcomes is another example of why this would be the case.
10. Primary care will experience a rebirth
I detailed the critical reasons why ABC must have a strong primary care foundation in my open letter to Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett and Jamie Dimon. Just based on the number of employees ABC has, it makes economic sense to fund ~1,500 value-based primary care clinics. They can derisk this investment by making the clinics available to ABC partners and customers. I wasn’t surprised that ABC recently hired my parents' primary care physician, who has deep experience in a vanguard value-based primary care organization. [See Chapter 14 for more on value-based primary care]
11. There will be a focus on going local to go national
From Facebook to Uber and Lyft, the best way to go national with something game-changing is to start with a hyperlocal focus. This lets you prove unit economics in a controllable environment. Despite conventional wisdom, the future health ecosystem will be local, open and independent, which provides anti-fragility versus easy-to-destroy monoliths. I often draw an analogy between the Health Rosetta and LEED for many reasons. One is that certain locales were early adopters of LEED. Likewise, certain geographies will abandon the current, silly medical facility arms race.
For example, Portland, OR, is an early adopter of LEED, and it has grown a cluster of sustainable industries by attracting talent and businesses to the area. Over the last year, I have been gathering feedback on creating a competition like Google Fiber or Amazon HQ2 competitions to identify communities where the new health ecosystem forms.
See also: Media Coverage on Amazon Misses Point
Beyond the obvious benefits of defining and pioneering the next century of health, solving the opioid crisis is a profound imperative. As I pointed out in Chapter 20: The Opioid Crisis: Employers Have the Antidote, the largest public health crisis in 100 years has major employer/economic implications and is simply impossible to solve without active employer involvement. The sad fact is that every addict needs an enabler, and employers have been the biggest (unwitting) enabler in 11 of the 12 major drivers of the crisis. The silver lining is that solving the opioid crisis takes you a long way toward solving broader healthcare dysfunction. Employers implementing Health Rosetta-type benefits have much lower rates of opioid overuse disorders due to the upstream “antidotes” to the crisis.
In short, ABC has the power to demonstrate that employer health benefits are the newspaper classifieds of transforming the healthcare business
Healthcare has many analogies with another industry that has been dominated by regional monopolies/oligopolies—newspapers. Like employer health benefits, the classifieds business was very easy to overlook. However, in both cases, they drove a significant majority of profits for newspapers. Once the classifieds business was undermined, the newspaper industry was never the same. If the ABC initiative plays its cards right, they can catalyze restoring the American Dream for millions of Americans by fixing healthcare. The great news is that there are many microcosms in America where the best healthcare system in the world exists — far more affordable and effective than we’re used to. ABC has the opportunity to help America leapfrog the rest of the world and finally have a truly superior and efficient healthcare system.
“You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.” - Winston Churchill
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Dave has a unique blend of HealthIT and consumer Internet leadership experience that is well suited to the bridging the gap between Health IT systems and individuals receiving care. Besides his role as CEO of Avado, he is a regular contributor to Reuters, TechCrunch, Forbes, Huffington Post, Washington Post, KevinMD and others.
The priorities of regulation seem to have strayed from their original purpose, letting drugs reach market without being fully vetted.
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Nick Johns is a writer from New York who combines an easily piqued sense of curiosity with a passion for research. Johns has covered a number of topics, with a focus on healthcare and consumer security.
Privacy is a key issue for claims of sexual aggression, and mediation is the most private way to resolve them.
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Teddy Snyder mediates workers' compensation cases throughout California through WCMediator.com. An attorney since 1977, she has concentrated on claim settlement for more than 19 years. Her motto is, "Stop fooling around and just settle the case."
Compounding of global risk and policy shifts are two of the areas to watch in risk management and employee benefits this year.
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Kathryn Tazic is a managing director of client services for Sedgwick. In her current role, Tazic is resonsible for program results and service execution across the customer base. This includes both technical execution as well as ensuring that results are always improving.
The bankruptcy filing of an insurtech startup has drawn some recent attention, so here is our two cents:
In the world of startups, the fact that Human Condition Safety filed for bankruptcy in March 2017 would generate a headline something like: "Venture-backed startup filed the first bankruptcy of the day," or perhaps "the first bankruptcy of the week." Ho hum.
In an era of accelerated development times, rapid testing and iteration of products, thousands of very smart people launch with solid practices, just as Human Condition Safety did in 2014, when its founders thought they could use artificial intelligence and wearables to simulate work environments and help employees learn to be safer. These startups often find a name client, as the company did with Bechtel, and attract real money, as Human Condition Safety did when it raised $18 million at a valuation as high as $90 million. Then the founders discover that reality is much different from theory.
This isn't a negative. All sorts of studies have found that more than 90% of startups fail. The failures are a feature, not a bug, for the innovation ecosystem. The failures don't show that the founders are stupid, bad people, etc. They just show that people are being appropriately ambitious about important problems with potentially huge payoffs.
The failure rate for startups does raise a question that is worth some attention: What do best practices tell us about picking viable early-stage companies? In other words, can we do better than the standard failure rate?
Stats and research completed through our Innovator’s Edge platform strongly suggest the answer is yes.
Innovator's Edge is populated by more than 40,000 early-stage firms in 175 countries, with 7% of the firms qualifying as insurtech. (The remaining 93% are entrepreneurs with the potential to redefine risks we take as a given today.) Among all startups in the platform, 2017 funding transactions totaled nearly $345 billion. Research on the platform shows that insurers don’t limit involvement to investing. Participation includes mentoring, adopting, promoting and buying, as has happened with WeGoLook, Snapsheet, AppBus, Pypestream, RiskBlock, RiskGenius, Jamii, etc. Any additional involvement by insurers improves success rates.
The platform also shows that insurance-based venture investors appear to place more faith in the founding teams longer, and therefore tend to avoid replacing founders. Nor are they investing in teams that are looking for a quick exit. Changing out founding teams with executives selected by investors is a tactic of last resort, which fits with research we’ve done that found that 70% to 90% of a decision to support an early-stage company should be based on the team. Early-stage firms tend to lack experience at scale, but that’s what insurance companies do well–allowing for the sort of partnership that can produce great success.
Let this story of a bankruptcy that took place nearly a year ago serve as a reminder on the risk/reward equation at work with insurtechs. The risks are high, so firms will fail. Get comfortable with that reality. However, when a startup with a solid team and a decent idea finds a good fit with an insurance investor that has clarity about the job to be done, the rewards are spectacular.
Have a great week.
Paul Carroll
Editor-in-Chief
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Paul Carroll is the editor-in-chief of Insurance Thought Leadership.
He is also co-author of A Brief History of a Perfect Future: Inventing the Future We Can Proudly Leave Our Kids by 2050 and Billion Dollar Lessons: What You Can Learn From the Most Inexcusable Business Failures of the Last 25 Years and the author of a best-seller on IBM, published in 1993.
Carroll spent 17 years at the Wall Street Journal as an editor and reporter; he was nominated twice for the Pulitzer Prize. He later was a finalist for a National Magazine Award.
Although Berkshire and JPMorgan also bring lots of employees to the alliance, Amazon is key to thinking big, starting small and learning fast.
“The ballooning cost of healthcare acts as a hungry tapeworm on the American economy.” That’s how Warren Buffett framed the context as he, Jeff Bezos and Jamie Dimon announced the alliance of their firms, Berkshire Hathaway, Amazon and JPMorgan Chase, to address healthcare.
The problem is serious. Healthcare costs in the U.S. have been growing faster than inflation for more than three decades. There is little relief in sight. A Willis Towers Watson study found that U.S. employers expect their healthcare costs to increase by 5.5% in 2018, up from a 4.6% increase in 2017. The study projects an average national cost per employee of $12,850.
The three companies have a combined workforce of 1.2 million. Based on the Willis Towers Watson estimate, they could spend more than $15 billion on employee healthcare this year. But, what can the alliance do about it?
On that, Buffett was less clear: “Our group does not come to this problem with answers. But, we also do not accept it is inevitable."
The challenge is formidable. As the New York Times noted, employers have banded together before to address healthcare costs and failed to make much of a dent in spending. How will this effort be different?
See also: 10 Mistakes Amazon Must Avoid in Health
If this alliance as simply another employer purchasing cooperative, it will probably have little effect. Neither 1.2 million employees nor $15 billion in spending is all that significant in a 300 million-person, $3.2 trillion U.S. healthcare market. The alliance might nudge the healthcare industry toward incrementally faster, better and cheaper innovations—but not much more.
If, however, the alliance thinks big and structures itself as a test bed for potentially transformative ideas, innovations and businesses, it could have a disruptive effect.
Amazon is the critical ingredient in this latter approach. Although all three companies bring employees and resources (both critical), only Amazon brings particularly relevant technological prowess and disruptive innovation experience. Amazon could think big by simply applying the standard operating principles and capabilities that it has perfected for retail—comprehensive data, personalization, price and quality transparency, operational excellence, consumer focus and high satisfaction—to healthcare.
It also has differentiated technologies like Alexa, mobile devices, cloud (AWS) and AI expertise. It could leverage its recent years of healthcare-specific exploration, such as those in cardiovascular health, diabetes management, pharmacies, pharmacy benefit management, digital health and other healthcare research. It could use Whole Foods as a physical point of presence.
Amazon could then start small and learn fast. It could crunch the numbers and come up with large enough interesting employee segments for experimentation. For example, it might focus on improving quality and satisfaction for the sickest 1% to 2% of employees. It might focus on those with hypertension or diabetes. It might focus on helping those undergoing specific treatments, such as orthopedics or cancer. It might focus on preventing the rise of chronic diseases in those at most risk, such as those with prediabetes or uncontrolled hypertension. It might focus on narrow but high-impact issues, like price transparency or prescription adherence. Issues in privacy would have be addressed, but there are many opportunities to address well-known but as-yet-unsolved problems in healthcare.
By first focusing on the quality, satisfaction and cost for the alliance’s employees, Amazon could justify its efforts through increased employee productivity and satisfaction and reduced cost. Indeed, the alliance emphasized that it its effort was “free from profit-making incentives and constraints.”
See also: Whiff of Market-Based Healthcare Change?
That doesn’t mean, however, that profits are not possible in the future. Amazon built its AWS cloud computing business by first solving an internal problem in a plug-compatible, low-cost and scalable manner, and then bringing it to the market.
That business-building approach would provide an additional incentive that goes beyond cost-cutting: a new business platform for Amazon, an enormous investment opportunity for Berkshire and (despite short-term consternation to existing clients) investment banking opportunities for JPMorgan.
In Parts 2 and 3 of this series, I will explore what an Amazon inspired transformation in health care might look like and how Amazon is well-positioned to make it happen.
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Chunka Mui is the co-author of the best-selling Unleashing the Killer App: Digital Strategies for Market Dominance, which in 2005 the Wall Street Journal named one of the five best books on business and the Internet. He also cowrote Billion Dollar Lessons: What You Can Learn from the Most Inexcusable Business Failures of the Last 25 Years and A Brief History of a Perfect Future: Inventing the World We Can Proudly Leave Our Kids by 2050.
Some predictive models are “Rube Goldberg” constructs; the worst resemble “a bunch of monkeys heading up the Manhattan Project.”
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William C. Wilson, Jr., CPCU, ARM, AIM, AAM is the founder of Insurance Commentary.com. He retired in December 2016 from the Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America, where he served as associate vice president of education and research.
Here are the top 10 reasons why 2017 should be considered the kickoff year for digital transformation in insurance claims.
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Bill Brower is senior vice president, industry relations and North America claims sales, at Solera.