North Carolina’s Battle for Healthcare Value
North Carolina is close to adopting a "reference-based pricing" plan for state employees that could change healthcare nationally.
North Carolina is close to adopting a "reference-based pricing" plan for state employees that could change healthcare nationally.
Get Involved
Our authors are what set Insurance Thought Leadership apart.
|
Partner with us
We’d love to talk to you about how we can improve your marketing ROI.
|
Brian Klepper is principal of Healthcare Performance, principal of Worksite Health Advisors and a nationally prominent healthcare analyst and commentator. He is a former CEO of the National Business Coalition on Health (NBCH), an association representing about 5,000 employers and unions and some 35 million people.
The diabetes prevention industry presents five ways to “show savings” to employers without actually achieving them.
Looking harder at the language, note that the phrase is “recoup their investment,” not “were validated by the Validation Institute as having recouped their investment.” Yet the verb “saved” is in the past tense.
And the heading says: “How quickly employers recoup,” whereas the only article cited in the footnote analyzed Medicare patients, whose chronic disease are far more advanced.
Further, digging into the actual article (financed by the vendor) yields the following sentence [emphasis mine]:
We used a Markov-based microsimulation model in which a person’s characteristics are used to predict health outcomes in the upcoming year.
Elsewhere the article says:
We applied 26-week weight loss results to simulate potential health and economic outcomes
Therefore, this entire claim is based on a predictive simulation model that somehow morphs into a clear statement showing precisely $1,338 “saved."
Speeding up time
As can be seen from that graphic, this particular vendor is claiming a huge ROI in two years for employees with pre-diabetes. However, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says:
One in 3 adults in the United States has pre-diabetes (fasting blood glucose, 100–125 mg/dL); 15% to 30% of those adults will develop type 2 diabetes mellitus within 5 years.
See also: Diabetes: Defining Moment of a Crisis
So only a small minority of pre-diabetics will develop diabetes in five years. And then, of course, it would take years for avoidable complications to develop even if no one “manages” the newly diabetic employees to avoid them.
How, then can $1,338 of expenses per participant be claimed to be avoided by keeping these employees from getting sick in a measly two years when most of these employees aren’t going to be sick five years from now even without an intervention?
Comparing participants to non-participants
Speaking of “participants”…
Let’s be very clear: Whenever you see the word “participants” in a study report, the claimed outcome is vastly overstated. Participants will always outperform non-participants, regardless of the intervention. The National Bureau of Economic Research proved this using a randomized control trial. Further, on three other occasions, biased researchers trying hard to prove the opposite accidentally showed that 100% of their apparent “savings” were attributable to participation bias, meaning 0% to the program. (The bias won’t always account for 100% of the claimed savings, of course.)
The best example of this bias? A Koop Award-winning wellness program accidentally revealed that participants hugely outperformed non-participants even when there was not a program to participate in. In this slide, note the X-axis. The groups were separated in 2004. The program was implemented in 2006. During the two years between separation and implementation, the participants “saved” almost 20% vs. the non-participants by doing nothing.
This isn’t a secret. Participation bias is well-known to insiders in the diabetes industry. Yet every single diabetes vendor ignores this bias (or “matches” participants to some medical charts), while most also fail to disclose the dropout rate – and the fact that most employees who drop out of programs do so because they aren’t getting results.
Projecting participants’(!) short-term weight loss into the future
Essentially all of them do this, too. Very large-scale studies have shown that only the smallest percentage of people who lose weight keep it off. There is no reason to think that somehow a few diabetes vendors have unlocked the key to long-term weight loss that has eluded the rest of the world and all academic researchers, especially when the vendors don’t follow employees for the long term or count dropouts.
Rhetorical and arithmetical sleight-of-hand
This single set of claims from a diabetes vendor looks quite impressive at first glance:
Now look at it again, paying special attention to the underlined words:
Once again, there is that word “participants.” That is just the tip of the invalidity iceberg. Six variables were tracked…and yet 27% of active, motivated participants weren’t able to reduce any. Randomly, three should decline. And many of the other 73% of participants could reduce only one…and this is considered successful?
Further, these statistics look like averages on first glance –but they are not. They are examples (“improvements such as”) of reductions that maybe a few participants achieved. I can guarantee that, absent statins, virtually nobody reduces triglycerides by 29%.
Regression to the mean
Diabetes vendors often split the population into high and low utilizers and claim credit for reductions in high utilizers (whom they manage) while counting the utilization increase in low utilizers toward their “savings” — as though last year’s high utilizers also would have increased had it not been for the program.
In this case, there are two giveaways that the 59% decrease in admissions is totally or mostly regression to the mean. The first giveaway is observing which diagnostic categories account for the bulk of an employer’s admissions. This is the top 10 list, in descending order. (“Del” means “delivery.”)
To begin with, the majority of admissions on this Top Ten list – and about a third of all employer-paid admissions — are birth events, not affected by a diabetes program.
You don’t see diabetes on this Top Ten list. That’s because diabetes itself in the last year for which complete data is available accounted for less than 1 admission per 1,000 commercially insured people (126,710 admissions in about 150 million privately insured people). Diabetes admissions don’t even crack the top 25. Because total employer-paid admission rates are about 50-60 per 1,000, eliminating every single diabetes event would decrease admissions by – get ready — about 2%.
See also: Putting Digital Health to Work
Reducing admissions by 59% would require wiping out not just every diabetes admission but also almost every admission not related to childbirth. The vendors might argue that temporary weight loss and eating better reduce other admissions, too. However, the only non-childbirth events in the top 10 are septicemia, joint replacements and pneumonia. Good luck crash-dieting your way out of those.
The other giveaway that this seemingly impressive “decrease” is regression to the mean is that the non-program-members (the vast majority of the population here) regressed upward to the mean. There is no reason to think that admissions in the average employee population are going to increase 4%. Over time, inpatient admissions in the commercially insured population are falling.
Using a selection methodology that is partly dependent on having high claims in the baseline assures both this apocryphal 55% “decrease”– and the equally apocryphal 4% increase in non-member admissions.
For instance, about a third of all heart attacks occur in people who did not have a pre-existing CAD diagnosis. Therefore, if you “manage” patients with diagnosed CAD, you will show a one-third reduction in heart attacks in that population, simply because you didn’t tally the heart attacks in the cohort you didn’t manage.
Then you’ll separately tally the employees without a pre-existing document CAD diagnosis, note the increase and say: “See how fast heart attacks increased in the population we didn’t manage.”
The right answer, of course, is to add the heart attacks in both cohorts back together. Naturally, you’ll find no reduction at all.
Coming soon: What is the Solution?
The next installment will cover how you should measure outcomes to avoid being taken advantage of and to see what really does happen in your population when you implement a diabetes prevention program.
Get Involved
Our authors are what set Insurance Thought Leadership apart.
|
Partner with us
We’d love to talk to you about how we can improve your marketing ROI.
|
Al Lewis, widely credited with having invented disease management, is co-founder and CEO of Quizzify, the leading employee health literacy vendor. He was founding president of the Care Continuum Alliance and is president of the Disease Management Purchasing Consortium.
A network partnership of complementary services will begin to deliver customer experience excellence approaching Amazon's.
In a more virtual world, socially efficient ecosystems will generate more customer loyalty than do bricks and mortar, big advertising budgets or legacy insurance brands.
The relentless conversion of analog to digital communications and information over the past 15 years, bolstered by the voracious appetites of consumers and an impressive array of AI technologies, has already fueled real industry transformation, spawning the connected insurance ecosystem. This connected network partnership of complementary services will begin to deliver levels of insurance customer experience excellence approaching those provided by established ecosystems such as Amazon's.
McKinsey predicts 12 distinctive and massive ecosystems will emerge around fundamental human and organizational needs, which will account for $60 trillion in revenues by 2025, or roughly a stunning 30% of all global revenues. These insurance ecosystems, powered by AI technologies across the entire enterprise, are quickly transforming the industry across the value chain.
Chatbots are taking policy servicing inquiries and triaging them expertly. First notices of loss are being self-reported by policyholders using smartphone cameras and in real time from connected vehicles, homes and businesses, investigated and documented by drones, evaluated and settled in days instead of weeks and subrogated electronically in a frictionless process.
Almost every one of these functions is supported by seamlessly connected third-party technology, software and databases. Insurance applications are automatically pre-filled after requiring little more than a few items of personal information. Life insurance policies are being bound simply and digitally and without the need for a medical exam. New hyper-personalized insurance products are being developed and brought to market with lightning speed.
Next Inflection Point: Real Loss Prevention
But the next major insurance industry inflection point will be its most impressive and game-changing. The power of networks has already become apparent, but in 2019 it will come of age in insurance. Driven by the torrents of information that will be transmitted by billons of connected things and turned into actionable insights and decisions through the application of artificial intelligence, claims will actually be prevented, turning carriers into risk managers in the truest sense.
See also: It’s Time to Act on Connected Insurance
Extending this trend, advanced driver assistance systems and autonomous and connected vehicle safety programs will continue to reduce accident and claims frequency and transform personal auto insurance into manufacturer and software liability insurance.
Wearables will monitor the health and wellness of life and health insurance policyholders, broadcastings warnings of diabetes, high blood pressure and other conditions, likely avoiding medical claims and even more serious risks.
Connected home sensors will notify home owners and first responders of potential risks such as fires, water or gas leaks, thereby minimizing and even completely avoiding costly claims.
Consequences of Connected Insurance Ecosystems
However, the impressive benefits emanating from this new connected insurance ecosystem will come at a price – namely the erosion of personal privacy, the growing threat of cyber theft and the need for ethical oversight of the uses and applications of artificial intelligence. Related consumer protection regulations and standards will emerge and impose new requirements and limitations on the various custodians of this personal information.
Another consequence of the adoption of AI technology will be its impact on the nature of work. Automation will free knowledge workers from repetitive tasks, enabling them to focus on higher-value functions and augment human intelligence, enabling faster and better-informed decision making.
Significant change management, re-training and continuing education of workers will be critical for workers to operate and thrive in the new world of human/machine partnerships.
Strategic Partnerships Become Mandatory
The insurance ecosystem and the relevant data being generated is rapidly expanding and becoming connected. No single company, regardless of its size, has all the expertise, resources, relationships and necessary understandings of every co-dependent industry. Cross-industry partnerships and alliances will speed time-to-market, expand market reach for each participant and add more value to the products and solutions consumed by their common customers.
Insurance Evolves from Product to Services
As a result of these changes, the insurance business model will also change to reflect this new and different role of insurers as service providers whose “products,” delivered through ecosystem partners, will be priced on the basis of the economic value of their risk-avoidance potential. The products known today as “insurance” will evolve into the services known as “protection” as loss avoidance becomes the most valuable benefit and the need for loss reimbursement diminishes.
Insurers can also help protect customers from the increasing threat of cyber attacks, which are enabled by the exploding number of connected devices in their lives through which their information is exposed.
See also: Insurance: On the Cusp of Disruption
In this more virtual, less physical world, trust will be gained digitally and socially efficient ecosystems (think Amazon) will generate more customer loyalty than do bricks and mortar, big advertising budgets or legacy insurance brands.
You can find the article originally published here.
Get Involved
Our authors are what set Insurance Thought Leadership apart.
|
Partner with us
We’d love to talk to you about how we can improve your marketing ROI.
|
Stephen Applebaum, managing partner, Insurance Solutions Group, is a subject matter expert and thought leader providing consulting, advisory, research and strategic M&A services to participants across the entire North American property/casualty insurance ecosystem.
Simple initial projects allow for an easy challenge so you build confidence in the processes of innovation and planning.
Get Involved
Our authors are what set Insurance Thought Leadership apart.
|
Partner with us
We’d love to talk to you about how we can improve your marketing ROI.
|
Mike Manes was branded by Jack Burke as a “Cajun Philosopher.” He self-defines as a storyteller – “a guy with some brain tissue and much more scar tissue.” His organizational and life mantra is Carpe Mañana.
Generally, the answer is: Don't build IT solutions that exist in the marketplace. Use your top talent to build what others cannot.
Get Involved
Our authors are what set Insurance Thought Leadership apart.
|
Partner with us
We’d love to talk to you about how we can improve your marketing ROI.
|
Bobbie Shrivastav is founder and managing principal of Solvrays.
Previously, she was co-founder and CEO of Docsmore, where she introduced an interactive, workflow-driven document management solution to optimize operations. She then co-founded Benekiva, where, as COO, she spearheaded initiatives to improve efficiency and customer engagement in life insurance.
She co-hosts the Insurance Sync podcast with Laurel Jordan, where they explore industry trends and innovations. She is co-author of the book series "Momentum: Makers and Builders" with Renu Ann Joseph.
Technological leaps will range from responsive mobile websites and texting with customers to chatbots and voice searches.
Get Involved
Our authors are what set Insurance Thought Leadership apart.
|
Partner with us
We’d love to talk to you about how we can improve your marketing ROI.
|
Jason Walker is managing partner of Smart Harbor, focused on two goals: helping independent insurance agents realize growth using digital technologies and enabling carriers to develop deeper partnerships and greater insights into the performance of their agent distribution channels.
Buyers and sellers all gain by being able to transact leads using a single, trusted currency; it creates valuable consumer experiences.
Get Involved
Our authors are what set Insurance Thought Leadership apart.
|
Partner with us
We’d love to talk to you about how we can improve your marketing ROI.
|
Jaimie Pickles is co-founder and CEO at First Interpreter.
He was previously general manager, insurance, at Jornaya, which analyzes consumer leads for insurance and other industries. Before that, he was president and founder of Canal Partner, a digital advertising technology company, and president of InsWeb, an online insurance marketplace.
Call me a cynic, but here’s my bold customer experience prediction for most companies in the coming year: Not much will change.
Get Involved
Our authors are what set Insurance Thought Leadership apart.
|
Partner with us
We’d love to talk to you about how we can improve your marketing ROI.
|
Jon Picoult is the founder of Watermark Consulting, a customer experience advisory firm specializing in the financial services industry. Picoult has worked with thousands of executives, helping some of the world's foremost brands capitalize on the power of loyalty -- both in the marketplace and in the workplace.
The State Farm chatbot ad has been criticized, but it is great to finally see a large insurer that is proud of its agents.
Get Involved
Our authors are what set Insurance Thought Leadership apart.
|
Partner with us
We’d love to talk to you about how we can improve your marketing ROI.
|
Matteo Carbone is founder and director of the Connected Insurance Observatory and a global insurtech thought leader. He is an author and public speaker who is internationally recognized as an insurance industry strategist with a specialization in innovation.
Steve Anderson is a seasoned business and technology veteran speaking on using technology in practical ways that will actually improve profits.
The discussion on blockchain needs to be fully integrated within the context of existing and anticipated regulatory compliance requirements.
The past several months have seen increased activity and focus on the promising technology of blockchain and its potential in the insurance industry. Blockchain has also reemerged as an important issue in the European Union (EU) following the go-live date of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) on May 25 of this year. As a side note to U.S. policymakers, including the California legislature, the GDPR was adopted two years before its effective date. There was a reason for that.
There will be a considerable amount of scrambling in Sacramento this year as efforts are made to clarify the scope and limit the unintended consequences of the hastily enacted California Consumer Protection Act 0f 2018 (CCPA). Virtually everyone in the insurance environment – including startup and established insurtechs – need to keep a very close eye on what emerges during this effort in 2019.
Regardless, it is important for all those dealing with technology to understand how the E.U. is dealing with issues such as blockchain. Businesses in California should be paying particularly close attention to how the E.U. is attempting to reconcile GDPR and emerging technologies while the CCPA is moving inexorably to its effective date of Jan. 1, 2020. Multinational companies are already dealing with GDPR compliance given its long extraterritorial reach. Inevitably, how the E.U. is dealing with privacy will serve as at least a partial template for how privacy issues will be dealt with in the U.S. E.U. commissioners are currently attempting to sort out the interaction between GDPR and blockchain technology. It is not a nice fit.
To foster a dialogue on this issue, the E.U. Blockchain Observatory and Forum was created as a European Parliament pilot project. Per its website, the observatory’s mission is to monitor blockchain initiatives in Europe, produce a comprehensive source of blockchain knowledge, create an attractive and transparent forum for sharing information and opinion and make recommendations on the role the E.U. could play in blockchain.
On Oct. 16 of this year, the E.U. Blockchain Observatory and Forum published a thematic report, “Blockchain and the GDPR.” As noted in the report regarding blockchain and GDPR compliance: “The issue of compliance of blockchain with GDPR is an important one. By specifying how personal data is to be protected, the GDPR will play a fundamental role in shaping digital markets in the Union. Considering its strong support of this nascent technology, the European Union clearly believes that blockchain technology has an equally important role in these markets, too, offering new paradigms for the ways we transact and interact with each other.” (Report, p.8)
See also: Blockchain’s Future in Insurance
What is not clear at this point in time is how blockchain can flourish while remaining compliant with GDPR. There are those who think the fundamental structure of blockchain is irreconcilable with GDPR. That opinion is not prevailing at this time.
As noted repeatedly in the report, GDPR compliance is not about the technology, it is about how the technology is used. There are clearly issues, even with private consortium blockchains, that need to be fully understood. The issue isn’t just where the data are housed, the issues also include who controls the data and, as the report repeatedly emphasizes, how that data are used.
The E.U. is ahead of the U.S. in efforts to balance the rights of natural persons regarding their own personal information and the improvements that can come from technological innovation. While various sectors of the economy, including insurance, seem to be gushing about the possibilities of blockchain, there is a singular silence about how this environment will comply with the host of state and federal requirements placed on all the participants in this distributed ledger technology.
This isn’t just about privacy in general and the CCPA in particular, although the CCPA could disrupt blockchain even in the commercial context if there is no further clarification during the 2019 California legislative session. The observatory’s report, however, serves as a reminder that the GDPR deals with personally identifiable information belonging to natural persons and not information that is shared with other business forms provided to businesses.
That is an important distinction but not entirely dispositive. In the world of commercial insurance, there are sole proprietors who must have not only liability coverage but also workers’ compensation insurance. These are “natural persons” who under GDPR and currently under the CCPA could ask their personal data to be removed from a database. This is not consistent with the blockchain’s promise of immutable records. (See: Civil Code Sec. 1798.105)
Earlier this year, industry giants Marsh and IBM, working with Acord, teamed up to develop a commercial blockchain for proof of insurance. Acord is the Association for Cooperative Operations Research and Development, an industry-supported organization that, among many other functions, makes many of the forms used in the property and casualty insurance industry for the transaction of insurance (applications, certificates, etc.). The pilot participant for this is ISN, a global contractor and supplier information management business.
Per Marsh’s announcement earlier this year, “A distributed ledger technology, blockchain is ideally suited to large networks of partners. It establishes a shared, immutable record of all the transactions that take place within a network and then enables permissioned parties access to trusted data in real-time.” IBM and Marsh also recently announced that they are working on making the proof of coverage blockchain accessible to Marsh clients through Salesforce. Recently, The Institutes, best known for its professional designation programs in the insurance industry, has launched its RiskBlock Alliance. Per its Sept. 23, 2018 announcement, “…a blockchain consortium representing 31 risk management and insurance companies, has launched Canopy, the industry’s first end-to-end reusable blockchain framework, using the Corda blockchain platform.”
One of the use cases currently being developed for Canopy is proof of insurance. In remarks on the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) Innovation and Technology (EX) Task Force Oct. 15, 2018, conference call, Christopher McDaniel, president of RiskBlock Alliance, said, in response to an inquiry from Oregon Division of Financial Regulation Deputy Administrator TK Keen: “…if regulators have their own node on the blockchain, they could push a button and create a report, as long as the appropriate agreements were in place to share the information.” [NAIC Innovation and Technology (EX) Task Force conference call Oct. 15, 2018, draft minutes dated Oct. 26, 2018]
In a July 12, 2018, blog titled “Ultimate Guide to Blockchain in Insurance” from management consulting firm Accenture, it was noted that blockchain would facilitate “using shared loss histories to obtain data-driven insights on prospective customers for more sophisticated pricing.” I suspect that state insurance regulators would have a keen interest in how that would be accomplished.
Workers’ compensation rating organizations such as the National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. (NCCI) or the Workers’ Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau of California (WCIRB), operating under license from state insurance regulators and serving as a critical part of the active regulation of insurance required under the McCarran-Ferguson Act, would most likely have a few questions as well. In other words, while there has been much discussion about the promise of blockchain, that discussion needs to be fully integrated into the discussion of how all that data are going to be secured, shared, and stored within the context of existing and anticipated regulatory compliance requirements.
This goes beyond insurance regulation and, as is the case with the EU, directly implicates the emerging and complex privacy environment as evidenced by the CCPA. Take, for example, the issue of proof of coverage and the issuance of certificates of coverage within the workers’ compensation environment. These are two separate issues that require separate solutions. States maintain coverage verification portals for any person to verify workers’ compensation coverage. These are managed by rating organizations pursuant to statutory mandate and generally by self-insurance regulatory authorities. In some instances, such as with California’s Contractors State Licensing Board (CSLB), there are separate coverage disclosure requirements that are also accessible by the general public. This is not a testament to the accuracy of these systems, but rather only to their accessibility.
For blockchain to be effective in the workers’ compensation environment, therefore, it needs to have some degree of integration with public databases. That isn’t as easy as it may seem. For example, Labor Code Sec. 3715 states, “The nonexistence of a record of the employer’s insurance with the Workers’ Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau shall constitute in itself sufficient evidence for a prima facie case that the employer failed to secure the payment of compensation.”
Does this mean that rating organizations should have a node on the proof of coverage blockchain, as should the Division of Labor Standards Enforcement (DLSE) and the Department of Insurance (CDI)? If that is the case, then what does that mean for purposes of public records laws and whether the blocks in the blockchain are public records? In other words, if the blockchain is to serve a public purpose then it must take into account access issues that may not be present when the ledger is entirely for private transactions.
See also: How Insurance and Blockchain Fit
A certificate of insurance is issued, arguably, by either an agent or broker or an insurance company. For most transactions, this is currently done through a writable .pdf document or done manually. This process is an open invitation for fraud. The work Acord is doing with Marsh and The Institutes underscores a technology solution may help make the certification of insurance coverage – both as to existence and to limits (for liability lines of insurance) more reliable and transparent.
This is not an inconsequential matter, especially in California and considering the particular issue of whether some staffing companies are very much part of the problem. The latter issue regarding staffing firms is a critical one for California. Given the Golden State’s broad regulation of employment relationships, it is at best vexatiously ironic that when it comes to staffing agencies, with some very limited exceptions, there is virtually no regulatory framework to verify the legitimacy of staffing firms and the way they do business.
This is a problem – and a problem that needs to be resolved before applying a technology solution to the issue of bogus certificates of insurance. And that finally leads us back to what the observatory noted in its thematic report: “… start with the big picture: how is user value created, how is data used and do you really need blockchain?”
Get Involved
Our authors are what set Insurance Thought Leadership apart.
|
Partner with us
We’d love to talk to you about how we can improve your marketing ROI.
|