While we've suddenly landed in the middle of a debate about whether AI may be about to obliterate the human race, I hark back to a profile I did for the Wall Street Journal about a brilliant AI and robotics researcher from Carnegie Mellon named Hans Moravec.
The focus was his provocative idea that humans would be able to download their brains — their entire consciousness, their full personality, an exact replica of them — into computers, which could then teleport to any spot in the universe or spawn an infinite number of what Moravec called "mind children."
The memorable headline was:
Good News: You
Can Live Forever;
Bad News: No Sex
I asked Moravec how long it would take for his vision to be realized. "Oh, a long time," he said. "Maybe 25 years."
That was 35 years ago.
So I'm not going to worry much for years about all the talk of impending doom. Timelines on sci-fi-like change tend to be way, way off. But, under the radar, there are plenty of AI issues that should be major concerns right now, including for insurers.
Let's have a look.
I'll start with Bill Gates's recent manifesto, which, among other potential dangers from AI, called out the prospect that AI will supercharge the work of malign actors, perhaps leading to bioterrorism, massive cyberattacks, and more. While we can discuss the potential long-term threats to humanity from AI, these are the kinds of threats I think we need to focus on today. These threats are already being pursued, whether by individuals looking to extort massive amounts of money or by nations looking for weapons in an increasingly belligerent world, and AI clearly provides exponentially more computing capability.
The MIT Technology Review goes into detail about how AI might produce a devastating bioterrorism attack: "A bioweapon might be a highly lethal virus that targets people according to their genes. It could be a fungus that wipes out a crop and causes food insecurity. Perhaps it would be a tasteless, odorless toxin that could be slipped into a region’s water supply, undetected....
"Today, AI bots can answer questions on topics spanning all realms of science. Anyone can use large language models trained on the knowledge and experience of 'almost every scientist who ever lived on this planet,' says Dunja Sabra, a biosecurity researcher at the University of Hamburg in Germany. Those models can provide instructions and video training on how to conduct experiments.
"Combine that with advances in biotech that have made gene editing and synthetic biology tools much more accessible (the “DIY biology” movement has already enabled many people to set up labs at home), and you’ve got a potentially very dangerous situation."
Wired, meanwhile, warns about all the vulnerabilities in software that AI bots are finding, and it's not hard to imagine how those weaknesses could be exploited. In July, hackers, thought to be based in Iran, disrupted 30 municipal water systems in Minnesota, and you can be sure Iran will ramp up attacks as fast as it can. North Korea, China, Russia, and other countries could stage similar, small attacks or could even try to shut down electric grids and stall commerce by using weapons of not-quite war.
Cyber attacks could easily lead to massive business interruptions of the sort insurers routinely cover and could increase geopolitical risks of every flavor.
Businesses and governments understand that the bots are making them vulnerable and are working as fast as they can to plug the holes, but they won't find all the holes, at least not right away. And you be sure that some hacker cartel or foreign government is storing up what are known as "zero day" vulnerabilities that can be unleashed on unsuspecting businesses and societies.
There is also massive potential for operator error as AI is deployed more broadly. For instance, the plan to use AI in air traffic control, just now going live for DC-area airports, strikes me as an accident waiting to happen. I hope everything goes smoothly, but the potential for trouble is so great that insurers and everyone else should be wary. Air traffic control hasn't exactly acquitted itself well lately, and AI tends to amplify flaws by making everything happen faster.
That's where I think the focus should be over at least the next couple of years, both for insurers and for society writ large: on the potential bio, crypto and other deliberate, organized attacks that AI makes possible from bad actors who would profit from those attacks, as well as on the potential for catastrophe as AI gets more involved in mission-critical efforts.
Yes, there is always the possibility that the search for superintelligence could create an AI that will go rogue and do indescribable damage to the whole human race, for no apparent reason, so government officials should be erecting guardrails.
But business is already circumscribing what AI can do. Insurers certainly are. They've realized that justifying a decision with "the AI says so" won't fly, so they're requiring that every decision be explainable and are greatly limiting what actions an AI can take without explicit human permission.
The whole superintelligence debate has so many dimensions even beyond the technical ones — there are political elements, issues related to business models, massive public relations concerns, etc. Here, for instance, is a column in the WSJ that argues the whole apocalypse debate is an attempt by AI's leading developers to duck responsibility.
The issue reminds me of Winston Churchill's description of the Soviet Union after it allied with Nazi Germany in 1939: "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." And I'm supposed to understand the flow of technology revolutions, having followed them for decades.
Fortunately, I think we can wait to puzzle out all the implications of this AI revolution — as long as we don't take our eye off the ball on the imminent threats it creates.
Cheers,
Paul