Beware the Grey Swan

As the U.S. steadily emerges from the pandemic — and we all hold out hope for India — the temptation is to dismiss it as a one-off, a once-in-a-century health disaster, a black swan. But the pandemic is actually what’s coming to be known as a grey swan — something that, while rare, relates to a known problem and that can be planned for, if we come to grips with the cognitive biases that blur our ability to see them.

As we’ve learned the hard way over the past 20 years, there are a lot of grew swans out there, so we as an industry need to learn to prepare better for them, both for our own sakes and for those of our many clients... continue reading >