No matter which side of the argument you land on over AI job creation or destruction, an AI image crisis looms. Phrases like, "AI job apocalypse" say it all. Growing negative sentiments about data centers have found their way into political campaigns with concerted efforts to halt or divert construction. To the surprise of many, the mere raising of the AI topic drew jeers by young graduates at several recent commencement ceremonies. According to Pew research, just 10% of Americans say they are more excited than concerned about AI, down from 37% when first asked in 2021.
Of late, however, the tenor of the AI job destruction conversation is softening to creation of capacity. In other words, using new capacity for people to do other work instead of merely cutting jobs.
Capacity Creation
Capacity creation happens when AI, especially agentic AI, unlocks productivity by performing all sorts of tasks around the clock with no days-off. More than just AI productivity gains, repurposing people work so they can do more. For instance, both underwriting and claim handling include large portions of routine, manual work. Gathering, validating, summarizing and sharing information for decision making are prime areas for AI. Once AI does all of this heavy lifting, employees will be freed to shift to new and higher-grade work – at least in concept.
Instead of mass layoffs, companies must contemplate what to do with new capacity by redirecting employees to focus on more meaningful tasks. “More meaningful,” higher-value work is loosely defined, but, either way, the precept of shifting resources to higher importance is well-suited to fit the P&C insurance industry, which runs on people and prides itself on doing business through people and relationships.
Aside from the constant chatter about huge AI productivity gains reducing insurance workforces, reality shows little evidence of overall job loss so far. However, even with the emerging mindset to repurpose work, there is expected to be considerable job disruption. This is important to distinguish from net job losses considering negative AI sentiment comes from real people, whether based on perception or reality. Job disruption should not be taken lightly even if the net amounts remain modest. It is also worth contrasting industries because some job types outside of insurance, such as coding, factory work, taxi driving and administrative tasks, are already being hit.
The insurance industry also takes great pride in resilience which has proven helpful in attracting and retaining talent offering “job security” in good times and bad. At the same time carriers are eager to automate a wide-range of manual tasks while already outsourcing others. So, what should the insurance industry do with all of this expected future capacity?
Where to Deploy New Capacity
Nearly all functions of insurance could make a case for greater resources – essentially having more hours in a day. Some of the sentiments expressed include:
- CEO’s are certainly eyeing how to reduce both expense and loss ratios to boost profitability with AI, trying to gain first-mover advantages to take market share and outpace competitors across the value chain
- Stakeholders are considering how fraud may be reduced and better contained
- Insurance insiders are enthusiastic about avoiding or mitigating losses to accelerate Predict & Prevent initiatives
- Customers are wondering how AI efficiencies translate to lowering the cost of insurance
Here are some of the top contenders for more people resources:
Customer Service
True customer service has become a rare commodity despite digital self-service adoption and better communication tools. Because of inherent insurance complexities, customers still demand human touch and often have more conversational needs. Whether point-of-sale, renewal, billing or claims, there are elements of consumer distrust and lacking confidence to make the right decisions without talking with an expert. Shortcomings in service often revolve around communication breakdowns and difficulty in reaching the right person. Meanwhile digital tools and work habits have distanced human interaction. Customers vent about repeating the same information and navigating the onerous insurance process and just want help. Improved customer service and touch would be a top contender for any new capacity.
Lower Expenses
For every dollar of premium, about 25 cents is spent on expenses. While this amount is generally accepted in today’s environment, new capacity to absorb growth-related work, gap filling for the retiring insurance workforce and enhanced management of expenses are prime areas for focus. AI can also play a direct role to advance underwriting and claim automation and vendor management and, in more specific ways, such as litigation expense control. Simply having deeper insights to control and better manage expense is also on top of this new capacity list.
Loss Avoidance and Mitigation
A Predict & Prevent mantra has gained in popularity with the advent of sensor technology and obvious demand for resilience from evolving climate exposures. Loss control has long served the upper insurance markets well, where resources, experts and actions invested can support effective ROI expectations. Such efforts have made some inroads in personal lines through telematics, water and fire detection. Yet, adoption remains a struggle, as does customer engagement. Similarly, loss mitigation efforts are inconsistent and limited, with some bright spots during CAT events to emulate and expand. However, prevent and mitigating losses is widely underserved and screaming for more attention and resources.
New Insurance Products/Services
The core principle of insurance, commercial risk transfer, has been heavily tested over the last decade. Catastrophes, soaring premiums, restrictive policy language and higher deductibles are reshaping the degree of risk transfer; policyholders are absorbing more risk, particularly in homeowner lines. New requirements such as fire prevention, resilient roofs and new construction standards increase these burdens. In several scenarios, such costly measures are required just to be insurable. An older roof can be uninsurable altogether and most definitely will be on a predetermined actual cash value (ACV) schedule, paired with a huge wind/hail deductible. Translation, the homeowner bears all or most of the risk, which begs for new solutions.
New insurance and financial solutions must be in the forefront to address homeowners' resiliency and prevention investments. The healthcare industry addressed high deductible and out-of-pocket issues through Health Spending Accounts (HSA). Perhaps some sort of home spending account would be similarly beneficial. Because exploring and developing new products require time and resources, these also make the list for new capacity.
Another way to prepare for capacity shift is to look at underserved areas in which there currently are not enough resources. Although insurers work hard on these areas, most are far from optimized. Interestingly, most are highly important. Here’s a partial list:
- Training and Development
- Upskilling for AI with attendant Change Management
- Auditing and Quality Control
- Legal and Regulatory Compliance
- Vendor Management
- Subro/Salvage Recovery
- Fraud investigations and deterrence
- Working with Communities on Resiliency
- IT Project backlogs
- System Integration waiting list
There are numerous and exciting possibilities for deploying new capacity, but it will take some significant alignment and rethinking. Visionaries see a future of abundance, with some extreme views that depict little to no time spent working and living lives of fulfillment in other ways. Such majestic predictions only fuel AI skepticism and outright rejection of what feels like turning society completely upside down. It is daunting enough for businesses to get started with AI and even more ambitious to prepare for capacity redeployment.
At present state, there has been marginal readiness to retool roles, and perhaps timing is premature. Consider how claim adjusters and underwriters are anticipated to operate in the future when all or most of the administrative portions are solved, with AI accounting for 70% or greater of the work. It’s a stretch to suggest claim adjusters and underwriters will readily concentrate on “approving” AI decisions and naturally spend much more time interacting with customers and agents without significant change management.
Any plans to deploy AI in ways that preserve human jobs by reallocating work must apply equal effort to thoughtfully address the many people and structural barriers. The scope is wide and will include new requirements around; hiring/selection, differing skill needs, role redefinition, rewards/incentives alignment, workload expectations, workflow and process reengineering, to cite just a few. As the use of AI expands and solves problems, there will be unintended byproducts that are likely to be as difficult if not harder to solve.
The good news is the continuing discussion to shift future people capacity upward – inspiring for all stakeholders, especially employees (and not to mention the whole value chain and economy built around them).
Time will tell if this budding attitude sustains or is simply more AI washing.
