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Report: U.S. States' Fiscal Outlook Is Stable

But Conning's latest State of the States report finds greater divergence as post-pandemic momentum fades and structural regional differences deepen.

Open atlas map of the states in the United States

Conning maintains a stable outlook for U.S. states in 2026, reflecting continued balance sheet strength and generally prudent fiscal management across, even as operating conditions become more challenging.

South Dakota rose 17 places to first overall, while Utah maintained its second place position. Tennessee took third place over North Carolina this year, while Texas moved up six places to fifth overall. These states benefit from sustained in-migration, competitive cost of living profiles, and comparatively strong balance sheets on the liability side, supporting greater fiscal flexibility. South Dakota additionally benefited from strong personal income, GDP, and house price index (HPI) growth.

Fundamentals continue to favor the Plains, Mountain West, and parts of the South, where our rankings benefit from population inflows, diversified economic growth, comparatively low cost structures, and strong balance sheets. Top states are outperforming due to a combination of disciplined fiscal management, resilient labor markets, and favorable demographic trends.

By contrast, performance is more mixed in the Northeast and parts of the West Coast, where higher costs, slower population growth, and other structural pressures weigh on relative rankings. The lowest‑ranked states are similarly clustered among those facing persistent demographic, economic, and fiscal constraints, including weak population trends, elevated cost burdens, and limited fiscal flexibility.

While year-to-year movement occurs, the bottom tier continues to reflect longer-term structural pressures or cyclical weakness. West Virginia fell three spots to 50th overall. Maryland (49th), California (48th), and Rhode Island (47th) each experienced declines of 27, 17, and 21 places, respectively. Louisiana improved modestly to 46th place, up four spots in this year's report.

Ranking movements were more pronounced in 2026 than in our 2025 report. A total of 23 states moved 10 or more positions year‑over‑year (YoY), compared with 21 last year, and 11 states saw a shift of more than 20 positions versus just six in the prior period, despite no changes to our methodology.

Our framework, updated last year, incorporates cost of living and catastrophe losses per capita to better capture affordability pressures and climate-related risks. The wider dispersion observed in 2026 reflects the fading of the post‑pandemic period of broadly strong performance, as revenue growth moderates, migration slows, and widening differences in cost structures and balance sheet positioning translate more directly into relative ranking outcomes.

For the full report from Conning, click here.


Karel Citroen

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Karel Citroen

Karel Citroen is a managing director of municipal research at Conning and currently serves on the Governmental Accounting Standards Advisory Council (GASAC), where he represents the insurance investment community. 

Prior to joining Conning in 2015, he was in municipal portfolio surveillance with MBIA and previously was a banking and securities lawyer for financial institutions in the Netherlands. 

Citroen earned a law degree from the University of Amsterdam, an MBA from Yale University, and an LL.M. in governance, compliance and risk management from the University of Connecticut. He is a member of the National Federation of Municipal Analysts.

An AI-Driven Jobs Apocalypse? Yeah, Maybe Not

Even as companies lay off tens of thousands of workers and cite AI-based efficiencies, it's becoming clear that fears of a jobs apocalypse have been overstated.

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Fired from Job

With major companies such as Meta and Amazon announcing huge layoffs that they tie to the efficiencies AI is making possible, you might be thinking that you, too, should be looking to cut head count. 

Maybe belay that thought, at least for the time being.

Many of the layoffs actually stem from a whole series of factors, even if companies choose to use AI as the blanket explanation. Meanwhile, economic data suggests that AI has not led to widespread job cuts, and companies are increasingly reporting great successes by using AI to make employees' jobs easier and to enhance customer service.

Insurance, as the ultimate digital industry, stands to benefit from generative AI's efficiencies as much as any, but let's look at what's realistic and what isn't.

Elon Musk said earlier this year that AI will take on so much work that in 10 to 20 years jobs will be optional. If you don't want to work, you can just sit at home and let the AI and the money it generates take care of you. But Musk says a lot of things, including that he would land humans on Mars by 2025 and have them start building a colony for 1 million people and that he would have 1 million fully autonomous robotaxis on the road in 2020. (The total currently stands at two or three dozen.) 

Meanwhile, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has retracted his claim that generative AI will massively reduce the number of entry-level jobs, and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has withdrawn his prediction that AI would eliminate 50% of white-collar jobs. Amodei now says, “If you automate 90% of the job, then everyone does the 10% of the job. And the 10% kind of expands to be 100% of what people do and kind of 10-times their productivity.”

In "A Reality Check on the AI Jobs Hysteria," the MIT Technology Review reports that "there’s scant evidence that AI has yet had any large-scale impact on the US labor market. Analysis of the data gathered for the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows that the unemployment rate for the jobs potentially most affected by AI is actually lower than that for occupations less exposed to the technology. And, critically in the mind of economists, there are no signs that large numbers of people are shifting from jobs threatened by AI to supposedly safer ones, such as those involving mostly manual labor."

Why, then, are so many companies announcing job cuts related to efficiencies they're achieving with AI? In my experience, companies will always glom on to a convenient excuse when announcing bad news. Even a flimsy excuse is better than saying, "We screwed up." 

But many companies did screw up. Lots hired too freely as the economy rebounded post-COVID. Some are just poorly managed, because there are always companies that are poorly managed. 

An article in the New York Times, "Is AI Replacing Tech Workers or Providing an Excuse for Job Cuts?", provides any number of examples of companies using AI as a cover story for layoffs. Meta is my favorite. As a columnist in the Times put it, "From 2021 to 2026, [CEO Mark Zuckerberg] poured $80 billion into the Metaverse in the firm belief that we would all want to don headsets and hang out in a virtual world populated by legless avatars." That flop [predicted here, in 2021, I note immodestly] is why he's having to cut 10% of his work force — but he hopes to save a little face by citing AI.

None of this is to say generative AI isn't have a massive impact. It is. Legendary venture capitalist John Doerr recently told the Wall Street Journal that AI is "underhyped." Doerr, 74 years old, said AI is the biggest of all the tech tsunamis he's seen in his long career.

The gains are, at least as of now, showing up in improvements in efficiency and service — and even in new types of jobs. 

Box, which makes software for storing and managing data, created 13 new kinds of roles, with titles such as AI architect, AI solutions manager and AI platform leader. The New York Times reports: "With the proliferation of these positions, Box expects to have more than 3,000 employees by early next year, up from 2,900 at the start of this year."

Schneider Electric made its call centers and manufacturing facilities more productive, without eliminating workers. Costco, Delta and IBM did much the same.

Insurers are already seeing major opportunities for efficiencies in gathering documents and triaging cases for claims representatives and underwriters, and companies are moving toward AIs that provide recommendations and can act as agents, or at least produce drafts of communications and reports for humans to review. Insurers are seeing great opportunities for AI to handle routine inquiries from customers and to provide at least rudimentary service during off hours. And much more.

Insurers should continue to pursue all available opportunities and think big about what breakthroughs might be out there via AI but, at least for now, should focus on removing the burdens on employees and enhancing customer service and not on reducing head count.

Cheers,

Paul

P.S. After writing this commentary last night, I woke this morning to find that the New York Times had done a long analysis of all the promises Musk has made over the years and failed to meet, including the ones I mentioned about colonizing Mars and filling our streets with his robotaxis. They counted 602 goals he set and found he achieved them less than a fifth of the time.

P.P.S. Finally, here's a wild AI story from the You Can't Make This Stuff Up Department: "Book on Truth in the Age of A.I. Contains Quotes Made Up by A.I."

June 2026 ITL FOCUS: Internet of Things

ITL FOCUS is a monthly initiative featuring topics related to innovation in risk management and insurance.

Internet of Things

FROM THE EDITOR

Clever, lazy college students pioneered the Internet of Things all the way back in 1982, rigging a vending machine so they could monitor whether sodas were available and cold. Today, the IoT is saving lives and transforming the insurance industry.

The IoT has moved well beyond novelty gadgets and smart thermostats — it's now at the heart of a fundamental shift in how insurers think about their role. Rather than simply paying claims after tragedy strikes, forward-thinking carriers are embracing a Predict & Prevent model, using connected devices to stop losses before they ever happen.

No one embodies that shift more compellingly than Bob Marshall, co-founder of Whisker Labs and the creator of Ting — a small device that plugs into a wall socket and detects the electrical arcing that causes tens of thousands of home fires each year just in the U.S. What started as a deeply personal mission after his sister-in-law's house burned down in 2015 has grown into a partnership with nearly 40 carriers, with Tings now installed in approximately 1.4 million homes and counting.

But Marshall's story isn't just about a remarkable piece of technology. It's about what it actually takes to bring an IoT innovation to scale in a conservative, data-driven industry — the patience required to satisfy actuaries, the importance of aligning business model incentives across all parties, and why simplicity can make or break consumer adoption. He's candid about the headwinds and equally enlightening about what's working. 

Read the full interview to find out how Whisker Labs is racing to get Ting into tens of millions of homes — and what the journey reveals about the future of IoT in insurance.

 
 
An Interview

The IoT in Insurance: From Watching Coffee Pots to Preventing Fires

Paul Carroll

I’m often intrigued by how far back the roots of innovation go. For instance, we know that automobiles trace back to at least the 1770s, because the first auto accident was recorded in 1771; a Frenchman hooked a steam engine to a cart and crashed into a wall.

 As for the Internet of Things, our ITL Focus topic for this month: Some students at Carnegie Mellon rigged a vending machine in 1982 so they could monitor whether it had sodas available and whether they were cold. In 1993, students at the University of Cambridge pointed a camera at a coffee pot and got it to send a live feed to their computers so they could see if coffee was available without having to walk over to the coffee station. 

Those IoT examples say something about how clever students can be about being lazy, but I’m more interested in what they say about adoption curves. The IoT is avant garde these days, yet its roots trace back more than four decades. 

You’ve become the poster child for the Predict & Prevent model for insurers, based on your innovations with the IoT that led to the Ting sensor that plugs into a wall outlet and detects electrical problems. You’ve done the research and shown that you can prevent so many fires that dozens of major carriers are giving Ting to customers at no cost. But you still face headwinds. 

What can you tell us about the headwinds that IoT innovation faces and about how you’re overcoming them?

Bob Marshall

I would probably qualify the notion of headwinds or challenges. We're distributing roughly 50,000 Tings a month, and by many measures that would be considered extraordinarily successful.

We want to go faster—not just for business reasons but because we're trying to have an impact on homes, families, communities, and society. If we can get Ting into tens of millions of homes, we will be able to help prevent electrical fires, protect families and prevent loss at an even greater scale. Still, we’re approaching 1.4 million homes with Ting today.

read the full interview >
 

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Insurance Thought Leadership

Profile picture for user Insurance Thought Leadership

Insurance Thought Leadership

Insurance Thought Leadership (ITL) delivers engaging, informative articles from our global network of thought leaders and decision makers. Their insights are transforming the insurance and risk management marketplace through knowledge sharing, big ideas on a wide variety of topics, and lessons learned through real-life applications of innovative technology.

We also connect our network of authors and readers in ways that help them uncover opportunities and that lead to innovation and strategic advantage.

The IoT in Insurance: From Watching Coffee Pots to Preventing Fires

Bob Marshall, CEO of Whisker Labs and the poster child for Predict & Prevent, explains what it takes to bring an IoT-based innovation to a conservative, data-driven industry.

An Interview with Bob Marshall

Paul Carroll

I’m often intrigued by how far back the roots of innovation go. For instance, we know that automobiles trace back to at least the 1770s, because the first auto accident was recorded in 1771; a Frenchman hooked a steam engine to a cart and crashed into a wall. 

As for the Internet of Things, our ITL Focus topic for this month: Some students at Carnegie Mellon rigged a vending machine in 1982 so they could monitor whether it had sodas available and whether they were cold. In 1993, students at the University of Cambridge pointed a camera at a coffee pot and got it to send a live feed to their computers so they could see if coffee was available without having to walk over to the coffee station.

Those IoT examples say something about how clever students can be about being lazy, but I’m more interested in what they say about adoption curves. The IoT is avant garde these days, yet its roots trace back more than four decades.

You’ve become the poster child for the Predict & Prevent model for insurers, based on your innovations with the IoT that led to the Ting sensor that plugs into a wall outlet and detects electrical problems. You’ve done the research and shown that you can prevent so many fires that dozens of major carriers are giving Ting to customers at no cost. But you still face headwinds.

What can you tell us about the headwinds that IoT innovation faces and about how you’re overcoming them?

Bob Marshall

I would probably qualify the notion of headwinds or challenges. We're distributing roughly 50,000 Ting sensors a month, and by many measures that would be considered extraordinarily successful.

We want to go faster—not just for business reasons but because we're trying to have an impact on homes, families, communities, and society. If we can get Ting into tens of millions of homes, we will be able to help prevent electrical fires, protect families and prevent loss at an even greater scale. Still, we’re approaching 1.4 million homes with Ting today. 

What's driven the success, I would say, is the clarity of the mission. Customers worry about fire. They don't want their house and their family to ever have to deal with a fire. When we can communicate Ting’s value proposition to the homeowner, they adopt it enthusiastically.

The challenge when it comes to Ting is that it's a new category. It's a device and a service that nobody's ever had before. 

People recognize that you need multiple smoke detectors in your house, you've got to replace the batteries, and every 10 years you're supposed to replace the smoke detectors. But when we first describe Ting to a customer, it’s not something they know they need. So we have to build that awareness.

When we do a brand awareness survey of the U.S. population and ask if they're familiar with Ting, this thing that can prevent electrical fires in your home, less than 2% of people are going to say they're aware of it.

This year, we're going to make a pretty substantial investment to build brand awareness of Ting. When one of our carrier partners sends an email campaign to their homeowners asking them to get Ting, we want people to be more likely to say, "Oh yeah, I've heard of that, and I want it."  

Paul Carroll

Simplicity is a significant advantage for Whisker Labs. I’ve seen lots of innovations fail because companies assumed that the benefits they delivered were so great that consumers would be willing to jump through a few hoops. They almost never will. But when I got my Ting, I just plugged it into the wall and scanned a QR code to download the Ting app and enable notifications if you ever detect problems. Took me maybe a minute… and I’m technologically challenged.

Bob Marshall

100%. We've been focused on that from day one. The connected home and IoT became very significant about 15 years ago, but a lot of the early IoT sensors required too many devices, too many batteries, and the apps and UX were clunky. Anything that is not simple for the homeowner is not going to scale. It just won't.

If you go back 10 years or so, even if somebody signed up for an IoT device, only maybe 30% of people installed it. The economics were broken. Somebody paid for all that hardware to get shipped, and 70% of devices never got plugged in, so there's little loss prevention.

Batteries are an issue, too. If you power a device with a battery, you have to replace it after a few years. Are people going to remember to replace the battery? If they don't, the economics get all wrecked. We paid for getting hardware in, and the service has stopped.

By contrast, 85% to 90% of Ting sensors get installed, and there's no battery. The sensor will last 15 years or longer without needing anything to be replaced.

Paul Carroll

Where did you get the idea for Whisker Labs?

Bob Marshall

The impetus for the idea came from Earth Networks, where I was a cofounder. We were an IoT sensor company deploying weather and climate sensors, connecting them to the internet, and collecting massive amounts of data. We provided that data to NASA, NOAA, utilities, and insurance companies. We had a lightning detection network.

Then my sister-in-law's house burned down in 2015. They lost their entire house and a pet to an electrical fire. I didn't know anything about electrical fires at the time, but when you research them you learn they start from loose connections and damaged wires that arc and spark.

Lightning is essentially a big spark in the sky, and we had really sophisticated sensors that could measure every lightning strike on the planet. So I challenged our chief scientist, chief technology officer, and lead engineer: Why can't we take that global lightning detection technology, miniaturize it, and detect these tiny sparks that cause home fires?

We started work in 2016. It took us the better part of two years, incubated as a skunkworks project inside the old company. We incorporated Whisker Labs in September 2017 after we'd figured out a technical solution.

This is a life safety product, so it had to be completely proven. We did substantial testing in thousands and thousands of homes before we made Ting available to the public in early 2020.

Paul Carroll 

There’s a seminal book, “Crossing the Chasm,” by Geoffrey Moore, that is still much-read in Silicon Valley even though it came out in the early 1990s. It notes that lots of companies attract early adopters who are fans, maybe even fanatics, but never cross the chasm to a mass market. When you thought about crossing the chasm, did you target insurance companies, go direct to consumers, or do both?

Bob Marshall

Insurance only. There have been a couple of successes that took the direct-to-consumer approach—Nest and Ring—but then you've probably got 100 companies that failed. It takes too much money to market a new product to consumers and get the widespread adoption needed to make the business work.

So we elected to go insurance first, particularly given that fire is an important issue for carriers. It's a big loss category.

Obviously, carriers wouldn't deploy the Ting technology until they had seen full testing of it. So we deployed with a number of insurance companies. We went to employees. We went to agents. We deployed to their labs, and we did a couple years of extensive testing before our insurance carriers would offer it to their actual customers.

Paul Carroll

You've now commissioned research that demonstrates that the savings from fire prevention are significantly greater than the cost of deploying Ting. But in the early days, how did you move beyond test projects with insurance companies?

Bob Marshall

Insurance companies are obviously very conservative by nature, and actuaries understandably want comprehensive historical data before they're comfortable endorsing new technologies. So how do you get there? We were fortunate to have partnerships in place with people who believed in what we were trying to do and the mission. They were very much committed to the mindset of moving toward Predict & Prevent, and they were willing to make the investments to make that happen.

Now we've got ample data to document the performance of the technology. We know that customers love it. We know that customers stay with their insurance carriers longer when they're provided Ting. We cobrand the experience, and we know engagement is high. So we check all the boxes.

And the way we've structured our partnerships—I think this is super important—is something that wasn't done in the earliest days of IoT in insurance. Early on, the business models weren’t aligned. Companies selling prevention technology to insurance carriers were satisfied with selling the hardware. If you got an insurance carrier to buy 100,000 water sensors, that was a big win. The sellers didn't necessarily care whether customers plugged them in or not or prevented any loss.

Our partnership model is solely focused on the service, as opposed to the hardware. We only get paid if the sensors are plugged in and providing the service. It's on us and the partnership to make sure customers are plugging in Ting, it's staying online, it's preventing fires and doing good. 

It's critical to make sure the interests of all parties in our partnership are aligned.

Paul Carroll

How do you get from 1.3 million or 1.4 million homes to the tens of millions you want to reach?

Bob Marshall

We launched the product commercially in March 2020, which was terrible timing, as COVID shut everything down for a year or two, but progress is now pretty steady.

Nationwide is a good example. They were already at 80,000 homes and recently committed to putting Ting in 500,000. That's a sizable percentage of their home book. And that's because they know it works, they know it prevents losses, and their customers love it.

We’re working with almost 40 carriers today, and they probably cover 60 million to 70 million homes in the U.S. If we got every one of our insurance carriers to put Ting in just 25% of their book, that’s at least 15 million homes.

That's why we're investing in marketing to build brand awareness and make it easier for carriers to get their customers to adopt Ting. We're working on incentive programs to engage agents so it's not just the corporate part of the carrier motivated to get it out.

Paul Carroll

Thanks, Bob. I always feel better after we talk.

About Bob Marshall

Bob Marshall Headshot

Robert Marshall is the founder and CEO of Whisker Labs. Whisker Labs, a spinout of Earth Networks, delivers next-generation home energy intelligence technology to realize the full potential of the connected home.

In 1992, Marshall co-founded AWS Convergence Technologies, the company that would become Earth Networks, by pioneering the networking of weather sensors and cameras using the internet. By developing groundbreaking technology to find "signals" — valuable, meaningful intelligence — in big-data "noise," Marshall improves people's lives and protects their livelihoods. 

He has appeared on CNN, BBC World News and ABC Nightly News and has been quoted in major news outlets that include the New York Times, the Washington Post, Nature and Scientific American.


Insurance Thought Leadership

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Insurance Thought Leadership

Insurance Thought Leadership (ITL) delivers engaging, informative articles from our global network of thought leaders and decision makers. Their insights are transforming the insurance and risk management marketplace through knowledge sharing, big ideas on a wide variety of topics, and lessons learned through real-life applications of innovative technology.

We also connect our network of authors and readers in ways that help them uncover opportunities and that lead to innovation and strategic advantage.

AI Alone Cannot Close Insurance's Execution Gap

Volatile risk conditions demand faster decisions, yet many insurers cannot operationalize AI intelligence quickly enough to respond to market shifts.

Man sitting at a desk with an AI robot next to him pointing at a computer screen

Insurance has never lacked ambition when it comes to modernization. Most carriers recognize the pressures reshaping the industry. Risk is becoming more volatile, customers expect faster and more personalized experiences, and legacy operating models are making it harder to respond at the pace the market now demands. AI gives insurers an opportunity to close that gap by improving how decisions are made across the insurance journey. The challenge is to turn that intelligence into governed action fast enough to make a difference.

Across climate-exposed regions, carriers are reassessing where they write business, how they renew policies, and what levels of catastrophe exposure they can responsibly carry. In cyber insurance, threat vectors evolve faster than historical loss experience can reliably inform pricing and underwriting. Litigation trends, inflation, geopolitical disruption, supply chain instability, and specialty market complexity are all changing portfolio dynamics in ways that affect pricing adequacy, underwriting appetite, claims severity, capital allocation, and customer behavior at the same time.

In my opinion, the issue is no longer whether insurers recognize the need to adapt. The real challenge is whether their operating models can convert signals, models, rules, and human judgment into production decisions quickly enough to keep up with these changing conditions.

Risk is outrunning episodic decision cycles

Insurance operating models were largely built around periodic adjustment. Rate changes, underwriting rule updates, product modifications, compliance reviews, and distribution decisions often move through sequential processes. Those processes were rational in a market where risk signals developed more slowly and decision cycles could afford to be measured in months, but that environment is fading.

When market conditions shift faster than execution cycles, the consequences become real. Delayed rate action can weaken pricing discipline and expose margin before carriers fully see adverse selection building inside the book. Slow underwriting appetite changes create another form of exposure, especially when business continues to be written against assumptions that no longer reflect the carrier's strategy. Even customer signals lose value when they remain disconnected from pricing, product, and retention logic, leaving profitable relationships exposed.

Legacy systems are part of this tension, although they are not the villain. Policy administration systems, claims platforms, billing systems, and rating infrastructure remain essential systems of record. The problem is that many are being asked to support adaptive decision making work they were never designed to handle. Systems built to store, administer, and transact are now being pushed to sense, decide, govern, and adapt continuously.

The bottleneck is not the model

Boards and executive teams are investing in AI for good reasons. AI can accelerate analysis, automate repetitive tasks, improve modeling precision, and help teams process more complex data than traditional workflows allow. Working with customers, I see why that investment makes sense. The industry needs more speed, more precision, and better use of scarce expertise.

Yet many AI initiatives lose momentum once they move beyond experimentation. A pricing model can sharpen analytical precision without making the enterprise more adaptive if underwriting still moves through disconnected workflows, claims signals never reach product and portfolio decisions, and customer engagement tools improve outreach without connecting to the logic that determines risk, profitability, and retention.

The issue is not just model performance, but the ability to connect data, models, business rules, workflows, governance, and human oversight so AI can support real underwriting, pricing, claims, and customer decisions in production.

Insurance decisions carry financial, regulatory, and social consequences. They must be explainable, auditable, repeatable, and aligned with underwriting discipline and capital management. Horizontal AI tools can improve productivity, but insurance-grade decision making requires domain depth, governance, and operational context from the start.

Decision making needs an operating layer

Many insurers have made real progress inside individual functions, especially in pricing, underwriting, and claims. The problem is that local improvement does not automatically create enterprise agility. A stronger pricing model has limited strategic value if underwriting cannot act on the same intelligence, claims signals do not inform portfolio decisions, and customer engagement remains disconnected from risk and profitability. The deeper issue is not whether intelligence exists inside the business, but whether it can move across the business in time to change the outcome.

Insurers need governed decision making to work above and across existing systems. That layer should allow carriers to preserve operational stability while enabling intelligence to move across pricing, underwriting, claims, compliance, distribution, and customer engagement.

The aim is to reduce the distance between insight and action, giving carriers a more consistent way to test changes, understand likely impacts, govern approvals, deploy updates, and monitor outcomes as AI moves from experimentation to operational capability.

Governance makes speed deployable

Speed only strengthens resilience when it is matched by control. In insurance, faster decisions only create value when they remain explainable, auditable, and aligned with regulatory and business discipline.

This is where governance becomes a deployment advantage. Carriers that cannot explain how decisions are made will struggle to scale AI into production. Teams may trust a model in a pilot environment, but production use requires traceability, bias monitoring, approval workflows, performance monitoring, and clear human accountability.

That does not mean slowing the business down. It means building guardrails into the way intelligence operates. Pricing optimization, underwriting evaluation, portfolio steering, compliance validation, claims triage, and customer retention each require the right form of AI, the right level of automation, and the right degree of human involvement.

The New Operating Discipline for Insurance

Insurers need a new operating standard: one that connects intelligence across the policy lifecycle and gives carriers the speed, adaptability, and control to respond as conditions change.

The next phase of insurance transformation is as much about operating design as it is about AI. AI creates value when it is embedded deeply enough into the business to support faster, more disciplined, and more accountable decisions. That gives carriers a better way to recalibrate pricing, refine underwriting appetite, identify portfolio drift, support compliance, and respond to customer signals before opportunities or exposures have already moved.

AI capability alone will not close the insurance execution gap. The real advantage will belong to carriers that can make intelligence operational, connecting models, data, workflows, rules, and governance into decisions that keep protection available, profitable, and resilient.

What Happens Next in Iran — and What It Means for Insurers

We seem to be headed to a Gaza-like ceasefire, ostensibly restoring calm but leaving the underlying conflict unresolved. Many insurance lines will have to adapt.

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World Map

When allies of President Trump went on television over the weekend to say that a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran was 95% complete, I was reminded of a truism among software developers in the 1990s: "The first 80% of a project takes 90% of the time, and the final 20% takes 90% of the time."

Comments on social media noted that even if negotiators had made it through 95% of the issues on their checklists, that progress meant that the U.S. and Iran still had to agree on what to do about Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, about reopening the Strait of Hormuz and about U.S.-led economic sanctions against Iran. You know, the little stuff.

While there have been more reports today on potential progress, I'm ready to call it. Having covered an international mess or two in my time, I think the situation in Iran has all the markings of a long-term impasse. I'm convinced Iran will be an open wound for many years to come. The best we can hope for, I believe, is the sort of "ceasefire war" occurring in Gaza, where the fighting has officially been ended but the underlying conflict still festers.

Insurers need to prepare themselves. 

I'll still hold out hope that President Trump can achieve the kind of agreement with Iran he's been promising: reopening the Strait of Hormuz to any and all traffic, without tolls, while removing Iran's ability to ever build a nuclear weapon. But I no longer think any such resolution is likely. I don't even think a clean, lasting agreement is possible.

The clincher for me came this morning, when I read a column in the Washington Post by a former colleague of mine from the Wall Street Journal, Karen Elliott House, who is as plugged in to the Middle East as any journalist could possibly be. Karen won a Pulitzer Prize for her coverage of the Middle East in the 1980s and has stayed plugged in to the point that last year she published the definitive biography of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. 

She wrote: "When the U.S. and Israel unleashed a blistering bombing campaign striking more than 10,000 Iranian targets, and Tehran’s response included attacks on Saudi oil installations and military bases, the Saudi air force initially struck back. But as President Donald Trump tolerated a ceasefire longer than the war itself, and repeatedly threatened to resume hostilities only to back off, the crown prince concluded that he must live with a hostile regime in Tehran. His focus now will be on placating Iran to protect Saudi."

If the Saudis have switched to appeasement — and I believe Karen implicitly — they leave Trump with almost no choice. Even if he felt he could ignore the need for congressional approval of a conflict lasting more than 60 days, under the War Powers Act, or could win approval from a Republican Congress increasingly nervous about an unpopular war as we head into the mid-term elections, Trump isn't going to resume hostilities without support from this major Middle Eastern ally. That means he's left having to negotiate with an extremist, theocratic regime that, by all accounts, thinks it has won the war.

Whatever deal ensues, Trump will surely claim a major victory, but Iran will remain volatile. Having shown the world that it can close the Strait of Hormuz, even while under attack by the world's greatest military power, Iran will keep shippers on edge, thus keep oil markets nervous. Iran will surely retain enough of a pathway to nuclear weapons that there will be the prospect of additional air strikes like the one the U.S. and Israel carried out on Iran last summer. If the U.S. eases economic sanctions, as Iran is demanding, Iran will surely funnel some of that money to its proxies throughout the Middle East as they try to destabilize Israel, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. 

Because the Middle East is so unlikely to return to the conditions before the war, insurers should assume that conditions today will persist for at least many quarters and probably many years.

Shipping patterns will adjust to the higher risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and insurers will have to adjust to those new patterns. Global supply chains for all sorts of goods will change, keeping replacement parts for cars hard to get and limiting access to housing materials, so pressure on premiums will continue. 

Gasoline prices will drop somewhat but remain steep, keeping a lid on traffic and, thus, traffic accidents. People will fly less, in the face of increased air fares, reducing the demand for travel insurance. With gas prices driving inflation, interest rates are likely to stay elevated; the housing market is already a disaster, and sales will stay depressed, reducing opportunities for homeowners insurance companies to attract new customers. 

And so on. 

There will surely be secondary effects, too, though those are obviously harder to predict. The big question, for me, relates to the mid-term elections. With Trump's approval ratings already at record lows, and with Iran looking like a strategic error, the Republican party will almost certainly lose control of the House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate. All those investigations that the Democrats have talked about wanting to launch into Trump administration actions could become reality next year. Democrats may be a bit cautious because some of the investigations they launched in the lead-up to the 2024 election backfired and let Trump generate support — or they may not. The federal government could pretty much shut down until the 2028 presidential election as Democrats and Republicans scream at each other. Meanwhile, issues that are important to the insurance industry, such as the fates of FEMA and the National Flood Insurance Plan, would be set aside.

My second biggest question relates to Taiwan. Might China decide that now is a good time to try to retake control of the island, with the U.S. looking weak and having used up so much of its weapons stockpile in Iran? What a catastrophe that would be for the whole global economy.

But now I'm getting really speculative. We'll have to wait and see how the secondary and tertiary effects unfold. For now, I really just wanted to note that I don't believe we'll have a clean resolution of the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran and that we are likely going to be dealing with lingering effects for a long time.

Cheers,

Paul

 

Wildfire Smoke Complicates Winery Insurance

Smoke taint claims turn on whether wineries can document when grapes were exposed during increasingly overlapping wildfire and harvest seasons.

Winery and Vineyard

Across many wine-producing regions, wildfire seasons are increasingly overlapping with key points in the growing and harvest cycle, creating a broader category of risk for wineries and their insurers. A vineyard or winery may avoid direct fire damage and still face critical economic loss if smoke exposure affects grape quality during harvest operations or while harvested fruit is awaiting processing. As a result, smoke exposure is becoming a growing risk issue not only for viticulture and winemaking teams but also for insurance brokers, adjusters, and coverage counsel evaluating when a claimed loss occurred and how the condition of the product can be established.

Wildfire season often overlaps with harvest, which can create a heightened risk of smoke exposure for wineries. When smoke taint is suspected after grapes are picked but before fermentation, first-party property coverage questions tend to revolve around timing, documentation, and the quality of the testing record as much as they do the winemaking science. Wineries can put themselves in a stronger position by keeping their focus on objective facts that show when the fruit was harvested, how it was handled, and what the available data indicates about the condition of the product.

One common issue that often leads to disagreements between a winery and its property insurer is whether smoke taint occurred. A winery may believe smoke exposure or absorption took place after harvest during transport, staging, or short-term storage, while the insurer may contend the impact occurred while grapes were still on the vine. This distinction can matter under many property policies because coverage for growing crops and harvested stock can be treated differently depending on the policy language. The most practical way to reduce timing disputes is to treat post-harvest handling like a chain of custody process and maintain clear records that match how the fruit moved through the winery's system.

Helpful documentation typically includes harvest dates, vineyard block identifiers, bin or tote identifiers, weigh tags, receiving logs, transport routes and times, staging locations and conditions, crush and press schedules, and tank or barrel assignments by lot. Notes about observable conditions, such as smoke density, odors, or ash deposition, can also provide useful context when paired with the operational timeline. The goal is not to turn harvest into a dispute, but to present a coherent lot-specific narrative that reflects the winery's real-world handling and supports a clear understanding of when the condition likely developed.

Another recurring issue is an insurer's position that testing does not support taint. Differences can arise based on what was tested, when it was tested, how representative the samples were, and how results were interpreted in light of varietal and site conditions. Wineries can help by using reputable laboratories, documenting sampling methods, preserving samples where feasible, and combining analytical results with consistent sensory evaluation and controlled comparisons across lots. When results are mixed or early results are non-detect, follow-up testing at later stages may be appropriate because smoke impacts can evolve during fermentation and aging.

In the United States, smoke taint testing historically leaned heavily on guaiacol as a primary marker associated with smoky and ashy aromas. Today, many wineries are increasingly focused on panels that include phenols and, in particular, phenolic glycosides, because smoke compounds can be present in a bound form that may not show up clearly in early volatile testing and may become more apparent later as the wine develops. Another practical reason to avoid relying on guaiacol alone is that it can appear for reasons unrelated to wildfire smoke in certain production contexts, which can complicate interpretation. For wineries, a balanced and practical approach is staged testing tied to how the fruit and lots are handled: test representative samples by block and lot at harvest or receiving, consider additional testing after pressing and during or after fermentation when warranted, and keep the testing record aligned with lot segregation and production decisions. That combination of good science and good records helps the winery make better operational choices and, if an insurance claim arises, supports a clear and fair discussion of what the data shows.

Considering everything above, smoke taint claims are easier to evaluate and resolve when the winery can present a clear timeline, a consistent testing plan, and organized lot-level records that connect the science to real operational decisions. By documenting post-harvest handling with a heightened level of care and by using staged testing that includes both traditional markers and phenolic glycosides when appropriate, wineries can create a straightforward record for any coverage discussion.


Victor Jacobellis

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Victor Jacobellis

Victor Jacobellis is an attorney with Merlin Law Group.

Herepresents policyholders throughout California in complex commercial property, homeowners and insurance bad faith matters. He has additional experience in general liability, builder's risk, professional liability, marine and pollution coverage disputes.

The Nature of Insurance Pricing Is Changing

Modern market pressures force insurers to transform pricing from fragmented relay race into cohesive and strategic enterprise capability.

Dollar Sign

For decades, insurance pricing resembled a relay race, with actuaries generating insights from data, technology teams translating those insights into rating systems, and business leaders awaiting results. This sequential process separated key players, creating risky hand-offs and hindering cohesion in developing and executing pricing strategies.

In today's property and casualty insurance market, that model is increasingly out of step with reality. Climate-driven volatility, economic pressures, evolving customer expectations, and competitive market dynamics demand faster responses than traditional pricing processes were designed to deliver. Pricing decisions that once moved through long analytical and operational cycles now need to adapt rapidly to changing conditions.

With intensifying market pressures, insurers increasingly view pricing as a strategic enterprise capability, extending far beyond a purely technical or actuarial function. True agility requires breaking down silos so that pricing becomes a bridge between risk insight and business execution. This alignment enables organizations to respond rapidly to risks and achieve sustained profitability.

Successful insurance pricing transformation depends on treating it as a strategic discipline, a theme that becomes even more critical at the executive level.

Why Pricing Matters at the Executive Level

Historically, pricing was largely considered a technical discipline. Actuarial teams analyzed historical loss data, built pricing models, and recommended rate adjustments. These adjustments then flowed through regulatory review and operational implementation before reaching customers.

Today, a range of business forces is driving a significant shift. Climate risk is reshaping patterns of catastrophe exposure across geographies. Inflation and supply chain disruptions are altering the cost structure of claims. At the same time, competitive dynamics are accelerating as digital distribution and comparison platforms make pricing more transparent and heighten customer expectations for speed, simplicity, and personalization.

Regulators and consumers are also placing greater emphasis on fairness, transparency, and responsiveness in pricing decisions.

As a result, pricing shouldn't be treated as a narrow actuarial exercise. Its impact spans financial performance, competitive positioning, and customer outcomes. This expanded role requires insurers to reassess how pricing processes are structured and where legacy approaches may be holding them back.

The Legacy "Relay Race" Model

Despite the growing importance of pricing as a strategic capability, many insurers still operate with workflows designed decades ago.

In the traditional model, actuarial teams analyze historical experience and produce pricing models. These models are often documented in spreadsheets and technical specifications. The analysis is then handed off to IT teams responsible for translating the business logic into rating engines or policy administration systems. Quality assurance teams test the implementation, and pricing actuaries prepare documentation before the rates can be deployed.

Each step in this process introduces delays, interpretation challenges, and operational risk.

This sequential handoff model, once valued for clarity and governance, now creates friction and slows pricing decisions, preventing the swift responses required today.

Consequently, pricing insights may take months to reach production, by which time market conditions could have already shifted.

The Real Pricing Challenge Isn't the Math

One of the most common misconceptions about insurance pricing is that the biggest challenges lie in analytical sophistication.

In reality, the actuarial science behind pricing has matured significantly over the past several decades. Modern actuarial teams employ advanced statistical models, machine learning techniques, and increasingly powerful computing resources. Tools such as generalized linear models and gradient boosting models have become widely understood across the industry.

The challenge is not the lack of analytical methods.

The fundamental challenge is that, while analytical capabilities have rapidly improved, most organizations still struggle to operationalize pricing insights. Organizational fragmentation, rather than analytical sophistication, is the main bottleneck to achieving effective pricing.

Actuaries, data scientists, IT teams, underwriting leaders, and business executives frequently operate in separate environments with different tools, timelines, and objectives. Even when analytical insights are clear, translating them into operational systems can be lengthy and complex.

Recognizing the organizational nature of these bottlenecks reveals a deeper issue: a persistent gap between risk insight and effective business action.

The Gap Between Risk Insight and Business Action

In practice, this gap is where pricing efforts begin to break down.

Actuarial teams may identify changes in loss trends or emerging exposure patterns. However, those insights often lose momentum as they move through multiple organizational layers. Specifications must be documented, translated into system logic, validated, and approved before changes reach customers.

Each translation step adds friction, slowing progress and making the process harder to manage.

This gap between insight and execution has a direct business impact. Slow pricing adjustments can leave insurers operating with outdated assumptions, causing real financial risk, especially when market conditions shift rapidly.

Overcoming this organizational challenge requires identifying additional alignment issues within pricing operations.

Diagnosing Pricing Bottlenecks

When insurers examine their pricing processes more closely, bottlenecks typically fall into several categories.

The first category involves analytical pace. Some organizations struggle to produce pricing models quickly enough due to data accessibility challenges or outdated analytical tools.

The second category involves decision-making workflows. Even when models are available, pricing decisions may require coordination across multiple departments, slowing internal approval cycles.

The third category involves implementation and deployment. Traditional rating engines were designed primarily to calculate premiums quickly during quoting, not to support rapid updates to pricing logic. As a result, even small changes may require extensive development and testing.

Across these categories, pricing challenges often reflect two competing objectives: speed and accuracy. Insurers must balance the need to respond quickly to market changes with the need to maintain confidence in pricing integrity.

The Business Cost of Fragmentation

The operational consequences of fragmented pricing processes can be significant. Slow pricing adjustments can reduce an insurer's ability to respond to emerging market trends. Delays in deploying new rates may cause loss ratios to deteriorate before corrective actions take effect. Fragmented workflows also increase operational costs through manual coordination, duplication of efforts, and testing. In some cases, errors in approved pricing can make their way into production, potentially costing insurers millions to identify, correct, and remediate.

Beyond operational inefficiencies, pricing fragmentation can create governance challenges. Regulators increasingly expect transparency in how pricing decisions are developed and implemented. When pricing logic moves through multiple disconnected systems, maintaining a clear audit trail becomes more challenging.

In sum, fragmented pricing processes undermine both financial results and operational effectiveness, making it crucial to address this core organizational barrier to competitiveness.

The Emergence of Intelligent Pricing

To address these challenges, many insurers are beginning to adopt a new approach sometimes described as "intelligent pricing."

This approach focuses on integrating analytics, implementation, and operational decision-making within a cohesive platform environment. Rather than separating pricing analytics from rating execution, intelligent pricing environments allow pricing teams to move more seamlessly from insight to implementation.

Platform-based pricing environments can provide a range of benefits. They make it easier for teams to collaborate on pricing models while offering the flexibility and tools needed to analyze business impacts effectively. More importantly, rather than resorting to "spec documents", they enable pricing logic to move more directly from analysis into operational systems without requiring an intermediate translation layer.

By reducing the friction between analytics and execution, insurers can significantly improve the speed and agility of pricing decisions.

New Data and Intelligence Inputs

Another important development shaping the future of pricing is the rapid expansion of available data sources.

Telematics systems in vehicles can provide direct insight into driving behavior. Sensors embedded in commercial equipment and infrastructure can offer real-time information about operational risks. Advances in geospatial analytics allow insurers to evaluate property exposures with far greater granularity than traditional location-based models.

At the same time, emerging artificial intelligence technologies are beginning to unlock new forms of unstructured data. Text, images, and inspection reports can increasingly be analyzed to generate structured insights relevant to risk assessment.

These developments create opportunities to move beyond traditional proxy variables toward more direct risk measurements. As data becomes richer and more granular, pricing models can become both more accurate and more responsive to real-world conditions.

From Silos to Coordinated Teams

Achieving faster pricing execution also requires changes in organizational structure.

In traditional environments, actuarial, technology, and business teams operate in separate silos with distinct responsibilities. Modern pricing capabilities increasingly rely on cross-functional collaboration.

Some insurers are experimenting with multidisciplinary teams that bring together actuaries, data scientists, technology specialists, and underwriters to work on pricing initiatives together. These coordinated teams can reduce communication barriers and accelerate decision-making.

When pricing teams operate collaboratively rather than sequentially, the organization can move more quickly from analytical insight to operational deployment.

Technology as the Enabler

Technology plays a big role in modern pricing, but it's only part of the picture. Success comes from closing the gap between insight and action. Modern pricing platforms make this possible by letting teams define, test, and apply pricing decisions within a single, integrated environment.

These platforms can also support governance by giving teams clear visibility into how models perform and how pricing strategies are applied, while ensuring compliance with regulations.

Ultimately, technology serves as an enabler of organizational alignment rather than a standalone solution.

Executive Takeaway

The property and casualty insurance industry is entering a period in which pricing agility will increasingly differentiate leading organizations from competitors.

The insurers that succeed will not necessarily be those with the most sophisticated models, but those who can move fastest from understanding risk to acting on it.

By treating pricing as an enterprise capability, one that unifies analytics, technology, and operational decision-making, insurers can transform pricing from an operational constraint into a strategic advantage.

As risks shift and markets move faster than ever, the ability to connect pricing insight directly to action may become one of the most important capabilities an insurer can develop.

Moving to a 'Platform Economy'

As generating traffic becomes a commodity capability, competitive advantage shifts from managing customer relationships to participating in their decisions.

Futuristic 3-D Squares

The creator economy was once seen as a new form of independence. Individuals could publish articles, videos, courses, communities, or other forms of content, build their own audiences, and turn that relationship into income and influence. They no longer had to rely entirely on publishers, media organizations, academic institutions, or large companies. They could face the market directly, build their own voice, establish trust, and create their own business model.

But that promise has changed.

Today, much of the creator economy looks less like an ecosystem that supports genuine creativity and professional expertise, and more like a content production machine driven by platforms, algorithms, and monetization mechanisms. It encourages creators to chase exposure, trigger emotion, manufacture anxiety, and convert content into traffic and income as quickly as possible. More and more content is no longer built around understanding, knowledge, judgment, aesthetics, or responsibility. It is built around clicks, engagement, conversion rates, and repeatable monetization routines.

So, when people say the creator economy is becoming a "junk economy," the statement should not be dismissed as an emotional complaint. It is a criticism of the platform economy on which the creator economy depends, especially its traffic mechanisms and monetization structure.

The creator economy is not an isolated phenomenon. It is a visible sample of a broader platform economy. It deserves attention not only because creators are being shaped by algorithms, traffic, and monetization rules, but also because this process reveals a common structure across many platform-based industries.

Whether we are looking at e-commerce, food delivery, ride-hailing, short-form video, financial services, or insurance distribution, platforms do more than provide connection. They use connection as a means to redistribute visibility, trust, and value.

This is why the issue is not that creation itself has lost value, nor that all creators are becoming low-quality producers. The deeper issue is that platforms control traffic and use distribution rules to establish evaluation standards that benefit themselves. Content, products, and services are forced to adapt to algorithmic preferences. The participants on the platform are gradually reduced to suppliers of traffic, data, or transaction opportunities.

In this structure, people with real experience, expertise, and responsibility may not be the ones most easily seen. Instead, those who are skilled at stirring emotion, amplifying anxiety, copying and pasting content, and selling shortcuts often receive greater platform rewards. The original ideal of the creator economy is then swallowed by platforms, traffic, and arbitrage.

This is not merely a moral question about whether platforms are "good" or "bad." It is a question of concentrated power, market-driven dependence, distorted business models, and long-term sustainability.

Platforms Are Rule-Makers, Not Neutral Infrastructure

When discussing platforms, a common, soft explanation is that platforms do not necessarily intend to do harm; their business models simply lead to certain negative outcomes.

But this explanation weakens platform responsibility.

Platforms are not innocent carriers of rules. They are designers, modifiers, and primary beneficiaries of those rules. They decide which content is recommended, which voices are suppressed, which formats receive traffic, and which participants are easier to monetize. Platforms use seemingly neutral language such as algorithms, customer preference, and market efficiency to package their power. But such language does not make the power neutral.

When platforms control visibility, creators no longer truly own their audiences. When platforms dominate distribution paths, content value becomes a measurable traffic resource. When platforms define monetization rules, creators' income and survival depend on the platform's decisions.

The same logic applies beyond creators. A merchant may believe it owns customer relationships, when it owns access granted by a marketplace. A service provider may believe it is competing on quality, when visibility is determined by ranking rules. A financial or insurance intermediary may believe it is managing customer relationships, when leads, timing, evaluation, and conversion tools are increasingly shaped by the platform.

Therefore, platforms do not merely control entry points. They reshape the entire relationship structure through which participants and customers meet, trust, and transact.

The key question is not whether platforms intend to do harm. The real question is this: when a platform controls the rules, profits from those rules, and refuses to take responsibility for the degradation of content quality, professional expertise, and trust that results from them, then harm is no longer just an unintended side effect. It becomes part of the structure.

Why Moving from Public Traffic to Private Relationships Is Not Enough

A common response to platform dependence is to move from public traffic to private-domain operations. The idea is to reduce dependence on platform algorithms by building more direct relationships through communities, email lists, membership systems, subscription content, messaging tools, or other private channels.

This approach has value. But it does not fundamentally change the logic of the traffic economy.

In many cases, private-domain operations simply move people from a large traffic pool into a smaller one. On the surface, creators or companies appear to regain some direct access to users. In practice, however, the logic often remains focused on retention, activity, conversion, repurchase, and referral. The relationship structure between the participant and the customer has not been fundamentally changed.

This is one reason many private-domain strategies fail to deliver lasting results. They require long-term investment, continuous content supply, frequent interaction, manpower, funding, and management capacity. Even when they work in the short term, they often struggle to become a high-leverage, sustainable, and replicable system of value creation.

More importantly, private-domain operations are still mainly relationship maintenance. They can increase familiarity, strengthen trust, and improve conversion probability. But unless they help the company understand the customer's real needs and enter the customer's decision process when opportunities arise, they remain a low-efficiency form of relationship management.

The real shift is not from public traffic to private traffic. It is from managing relationships to understanding needs and participating in decisions.

This distinction is particularly important for insurance.

Insurance has always been a business that depends on trust, timing, context, and decision support. Yet many digital strategies still treat insurance customers as traffic to be acquired, segmented, nurtured, and converted. The problem is that buying insurance is rarely a simple transaction. It often involves family responsibility, health anxiety, risk perception, financial constraints, and a person's willingness to face uncertainty.

If insurers continue to look at customers only through the old lens of leads, conversion, product matching, and campaign response, they may miss the deeper question: why does a person decide to think about protection now, and what kind of support does that person need before making a decision?

Sometimes, the insurance industry cannot solve new problems by staying entirely inside its old mental framework. Looking at creator platforms, e-commerce, and other platform economies may help insurers see their own problem more clearly: the challenge is not only how to get more traffic, but how to enter the customer's decision moment with understanding, trust, and responsibility.

From Relationship Management to Decision Participation

There is a fundamental difference between managing relationships and participating in decisions.

Relationship management asks: how do we keep the customer, increase interaction, maintain contact, build trust, and improve conversion?

Decision participation asks a different set of questions: why does the customer have this need? What situation is the customer really facing? What problem is the customer trying to solve? Which factors are shaping judgment? What is causing hesitation? Is the customer looking for a product, or looking for a reason to make a difficult decision?

From a methodological perspective, relationship management deals with how to move along a path. Decision participation asks why the path exists, and whether it is the right one.

This means a new methodology cannot be centered only on traffic, private-domain operations, content frequency, or community activity. It must be centered on causality.

The question is no longer simply how to convert customers. The question is how customer needs and decisions arise. How is a need formed? How is trust established? How is a decision triggered? How is value realized?

The focus is not messaging or content. The focus is understanding the causal structure behind customer decisions.

A person does not buy insurance simply because they understand policy terms. They may be responding to family responsibility, health anxiety, risk imagination, or a life event. A company does not adopt AI simply because its leaders understand the technology. It may be responding to competitive pressure, management anxiety, cost reduction needs, strategic signaling, or a transformation challenge. A reader does not follow a creator simply because the content is good. The reader may be looking for a framework to understand the world, a way to judge problems, or language to clarify confusion that has not yet been expressed.

The true value, therefore, lies in the insurance adviser's insight into customer needs, the executive's understanding of organizational pain points, and the creator's ability to help readers reconstruct problems and form judgment.

What these roles share is not merely that they are good at managing relationships. It is that they can enter the process through which needs are formed and decisions are made.

That is what decision participation really means.

In this diagram, "distribution causality" refers to how platforms shape visibility and distribution rules, while "decision causality" refers to how customer needs, trust, judgment, and choices are formed.

Figure 1: The shift from traffic operations to decision participation.

From Companionship to Demand Inquiry

If the core of this new methodology is causal thinking, then the supporting technology cannot stop at generative AI in the usual sense. It must move toward causal AI.

Generative AI is powerful at producing content, organizing information, answering questions, and simulating conversation. But if it relies only on correlation-based generation, it is not enough to support true decision scenarios. In decision scenarios, the key is not only how to answer or what to answer. The key is why a need has appeared, which factors are influencing judgment, and what conditions might change the decision.

This also means the human-AI relationship must change.

In the past, AI often functioned like a companion, assistant, or customer service representative. It answered questions and provided information. Its interaction model was mainly responsive.

But in decision scenarios, AI cannot only respond. It must be able to ask follow-up questions based on causal logic. It should help people see problems they cannot yet clearly express, identify the motives behind stated needs, uncover causal factors beneath surface answers, and, when necessary, reframe the problem itself.

Companion-style interaction makes people feel heard. It is closer to emotional support and information provision.

Demand-inquiry interaction helps people better understand their own problems. It is closer to causal analysis and decision support.

This is not simply an improvement in customer experience. It is a change in role.

For AI to move from a content tool to a decision-support capability, it cannot rely on the model alone. It needs a causal methodology as an analytical framework, concrete business scenarios as sources of problems, contextual data that can support judgment, and human experts who can correct, interpret, and take responsibility for the results.

Only in such an environment can AI truly participate in need formation and decision construction.

Decision Participation Is Harder Than Relationship Management

There is an unavoidable reality: participating in decisions is harder than managing relationships.

Relationship management already requires substantial investment. Without effective automation, many participants eventually fail because they cannot sustain the required content, interaction, and service effort. Decision participation is more demanding. It requires understanding context, identifying needs, interpreting motives, reframing problems, offering recommendations, and, to some extent, taking responsibility for the consequences of advice.

This is not work that individuals or companies can sustain through enthusiasm and diligence alone.

A sustainable approach requires three supports.

The first is methodology. A causal framework is needed to rethink needs, trust, decisions, and value, rather than staying within the language of traffic, retention, conversion, and repurchase.

The second is technology. Causal AI can support demand inquiry, motive identification, problem reframing, and decision recommendations, reducing excessive dependence on individual experience and manual labor.

The third is a business model. Professional judgment must be reasonably priced. Otherwise, it will be forced back into free content for attracting traffic or low-priced services for conversion.

Only when these three supports work together can decision participation move beyond a high-cost service provided by a small number of experts and become a value creation model that more individuals and companies can adopt.

For insurance, this matters because the industry often describes itself as a trust business, but still operates many customer processes as traffic and conversion systems. If AI is used only to generate scripts, summarize conversations, or automate follow-ups, it may improve efficiency but not change the underlying relationship. The more important opportunity is to use AI to help advisers and insurers understand why a customer is hesitating, what responsibility or fear is shaping the decision, and how to support the customer's decision-making process instead of reducing the conversation to a sales script.

The Real Moat Is Decision Position

In the platform environment, content alone is no longer enough to create lasting differentiation. Opinions can be rewritten, articles summarized, videos edited, courses imitated, and even personal style learned and regenerated by AI. When the threshold and cost of content generation continue to fall, low-level homogeneous competition becomes unavoidable.

For customers, the true source of irreplaceability is not whether you can produce more content. It is whether you can enter their decision position.

This is the key for the creator economy to move beyond junk content. It is also a strategic question for e-commerce merchants, insurers, enterprise service providers, professional advisers, and AI solution companies trying to break through platform dependence.

In scenarios where transactions require long-term relationship building, if we treat content push merely as a tool to collect customer tags and build customer profiles, while ignoring the essence of customer management, we are still playing a game of "guess what you like." We are competing on statistical probability, not understanding.

The essence of customer management is to enter the customer's mind and wallet at the critical moment of decision. That does not mean manipulation. It means being present with relevant understanding when the customer actually needs help.

A platform may reduce your exposure, but it cannot easily replace your position in the customer's decision process. A platform can decide what content is distributed, but it cannot bear judgment and consequences on behalf of the customer. Even the most precise algorithmic recommendation can only infer preferences from past behavior. It cannot fully understand the customer's present context, constraints, hesitation, and responsibility. Trust, especially in insurance and financial services, cannot be created for an individual customer simply by scaling traffic.

Therefore, the answer to platform dependence is not to flee platforms. Nor is it merely to move traffic into private channels. The answer is to reposition one's value role: from traffic operations to decision participation.

Conclusion: Being Present When Customers Need Help Most

In the platform economy, what individuals and companies need to build is the ability to understand customer needs and enter the customer's decision process. The purpose is simple: to be present when customers need help most.

Platforms are powerful because they control traffic, distribution, and visibility. But the key to breaking through is not to fight platforms directly. It is to build another path of value. Instead of waiting to be distributed by platforms, companies should ask how they can become truly needed by customers. Instead of chasing exposure, they should learn how to enter the process through which customers form judgment and make choices.

When platforms control the distribution of content, products, and services, individuals and companies need to build a closed loop of capability: from need formation, trust building, problem reframing, and judgment formation to value realization. Once this chain is established, participants are no longer merely units of content, products, or services to be distributed. They become structural roles in the customer's decision process.

What we should oppose is not the platform economy itself, but the junk economy that emerges when platforms use traffic and algorithms to capture value from participants across industries. The part of the platform economy worth preserving is its ability to improve connection efficiency and reduce transaction costs. If that capability helps truly valuable people and companies become visible, understood, and trusted, then it deserves to be expanded.

What we should support is not everything that platforms amplify, but the individuals and companies that sincerely provide knowledge, experience, judgment, and responsibility. By understanding causality, reconstructing needs, and participating in decisions, they are the true creators of future value.

Individuals and companies may not be able to change platforms, and they do not need to. What they need is an upgrade in customer management: to rely less on traffic and content production, and gradually build their own loop of demand inquiry and decision influence.

For B2B service providers, this is also a reminder. Customers should stay because of value, not because of lock-in. This is not easy. But it should be a basic value principle for technology companies entering enterprise scenarios.


David Lien

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David Lien

David Lien is a partner at Lingxi (Beijing) Technology. 

He wrote “Decoding New Insurance” (2020), which ranked among JD.com’s top books. Lien has held leadership roles at Sino-US MetLife, Sunshine Insurance and Prudential Taiwan, leading digital transformations and multi-channel marketing. A 2018 e27 Asia New Startup Taiwan Top 100 nominee, he holds a patent for the "Intelligent Insurance Financial Management System." 

The Wasted Insurance Opportunity in AI Subscriptions

Fifty million AI subscribers are generating new exposures daily, yet insurers are writing exclusions instead of embedding coverage.

Shield with Arrows stuck in it

Every few years, the insurance industry watches a new distribution channel open up and takes too long to walk through it.

It happened with auto telematics. It happened with embedded travel coverage. It happened, most painfully, with cyber — a line we hesitated on for a decade while insurtechs and specialist managing general agents built the playbook we now have to license back.

A similar window is opening right now. And almost no one in traditional insurance is talking about it.

OpenAI confirmed 50 million paying subscribers across all tiers in its April 2026 announcement. Anthropic confirmed that paid subscriptions to its Claude AI platform more than doubled in 2026. Google's Gemini is scaling through Android, Workspace, and Search. Microsoft Copilot is being purchased seat-by-seat across enterprises of every size. Add Perplexity, Grok, Mistral, and a long tail of specialist AI tools, and you have something the insurance industry has not seen in a generation: a brand-new category of paying users — most of them business users — being created at unprecedented speed.

The question I keep coming back to is simple. These users are taking on real, novel professional and digital exposure every time they use these tools. Who is going to insure them, and how?

I think the answer is embedded insurance — sold at the same moment they click "Subscribe to Pro."

Why This Moment Is Different

Embedded insurance is not a new idea. We've discussed it for years in the context of auto OEMs, travel platforms, and e-commerce. What's different about AI platforms is the intensity of the exposure being created relative to the price of the underlying product.

A small business owner who subscribes to ChatGPT Plus or Claude Pro and uses it to draft client deliverables, write production code, advise customers, or build autonomous agents is generating a brand-new risk surface every day — one that no existing policy was priced for.

The industry has already started reacting defensively, by introducing new AI-related exclusions.

But that standalone market is being built the traditional way — broker-led, application-heavy, aimed at mid-market and up. Meanwhile, the actual users of AI tools — millions of freelancers, consultants, small firms, and individual professionals — are buying their subscription in 30 seconds and getting straight to work. They will never call a broker. But they would absolutely tick a box for $10–$15 a month that protects them against the very tool they are using.

That is the embedded insurance opportunity.

What an Embedded AI Coverage Could Look Like

Imagine a world where:

  • A user upgrading to a paid AI plan sees a single optional add-on: AI Use Protection.
  • For an individual professional, the coverage bundles AI errors and omissions, cyber and privacy protection, deepfake and reputational harm response, and IP infringement defense.
  • For a small business, the same product scales up by seat, with broader limits and incident response services.
  • For an enterprise, the embedded layer feeds into an existing master policy with usage-based premium adjustments at renewal.
  • Underwriting signals come directly from the platform: account type, industry, usage volume, integrations enabled, agent autonomy level, and governance controls.
  • Pricing, binding, and endorsement happen instantly, through the same checkout flow as the subscription itself.

This is not a futuristic sketch. The pieces already exist. With AI-driven underwriting and instant pricing, carriers can now confidently offer coverage in context — at the point of need, and for the duration required. What is missing is the partnership — a carrier or insurtech sitting down with a foundation model company and building it.

Why Insurers Tend to Miss These Windows

There are three patterns that explain why insurance keeps arriving late to opportunities like this one, and they are worth naming honestly.

The first is that we wait for credible loss data before we move. Underwriters want triangles. Actuaries want credibility. By the time we have either, the insurtechs and specialist MGAs have already built the wordings, the distribution, and the brand recognition. Cyber between roughly 2010 and 2018 is the case study every carrier should re-read this year.

The second is that we instinctively treat new technology as a risk to exclude rather than a customer base to serve. Look at the carrier behavior above — exclusions, carve-outs, regulatory filings to remove coverage. These are all defensive moves. Very few carriers are asking the offensive question: if 50 million people are now generating new exposure every day, who is selling them an appropriate product?

The third is that we are not yet good at partnering with non-insurance platforms. Carriers know how to work with brokers, agents, and program administrators. Partnering with a foundation model company — meeting their API standards, their UX expectations, their speed of iteration — is a different operating muscle, and most carriers have not built it.

The Window Is Narrower Than It Looks

Embedded auto insurance took roughly a decade to mature. Embedded travel coverage, similar. But the AI subscription market is growing at a pace neither category ever saw. The platforms that will define the next decade of distribution are being chosen right now, in 2026.

The next great embedded insurance product is unlikely to come from an automaker or an airline. It is more likely to appear next to a "Subscribe to Pro" button, sold to a freelancer who never knew they needed it until the moment it was offered.

The risk is here. The exposure is here. The customers are here. The only real question is which insurers stop excluding the future and start underwriting it.

Every great distribution channel in insurance was obvious in hindsight and invisible in the moment. AI subscriptions are simply the next one.


Manjunath Krishna

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Manjunath Krishna

Manjunath Krishna is a property and casualty underwriting consultant at Accenture.

He has nearly a decade of experience supporting global underwriters and carriers. He holds CPCU, AU, AINS, and AIS designations.