Tag Archives: XL Catlin

Cyber: Black Hole or Huge Opportunity?

You own a house. It burns down. Your insurer only pays out 15% of the loss.

That’s a serious case of under-insurance. You’d wonder why you bothered with insurance in the first place. In reality, massive under-insurance is very rare for conventional property fire losses. But what about cyber insurance? In 2017, the total global economic loss from cyber attacks was $1.5 trillion, according to Cambridge University Centre for Risk Studies. But only 15% of that was insured.

I chaired a panel on cyber at the Insurtech Rising conference in September. Sarah Stephens from JLT and Eelco Ouwerkerk from Aon represented the brokers. Andrew Martin from Dyanrisk and Sidd Gavirneni from Zeguro, the two cyber startups. I asked them why we are seeing such a shortfall. Are companies not interested in buying or is the insurance market failing to deliver the necessary protection for cyber today? And is this an opportunity for insurtech start-ups to step in?

High demand, but not the highest priority

We’ll hit $4 billion in cyber insurance premium by the end of this year. Allianz has predicted $20 billion by 2025. And most industry commentators believe 30% to 40% annual growth will continue for the next few years.

A line of business growing at more than 30% per year, with combined ratios around 60%, at a time when insurers are struggling to find new sources of income is not to be sniffed at.

But the risks are getting bigger. My panelists had no problem in rattling off new threats to be concerned with as we look ahead to 2019. Crypto currency hacks, increasing use of cloud, ransomware, GDPR, greater connectivity through sensors, driverless cars, even blockchain itself could be vulnerable. Each technical innovation represents a new threat vector. Cyber insurance is growing, but so is the gap between the economic and insured loss.

The demand is there, but there are a lot of competing priorities. Today’s premiums represent less than 0.1% of the $4.8 trillion global property/casualty market. Let’s try to put that in context. If the ratio of premium between cyber and all other insurance was the same as the ratio of time spent thinking about cyber and other types of risk, how long would a risk manager allocate to cyber risk? Even someone thinking about insurance all day, every day for a full working year would spend less than seven minutes a month on cyber.

It’s not because we are unaware of the risks. Cyber is one of the few classes of insurance that can affect everyone. The NotPetya virus attack, launched in June 2017, caused $2.7 billion of insured loss by May 2018, according to PCS, and losses continues to rise. That makes it the sixth largest catastrophe loss in 2017, a year with major hurricanes and wildfires. Yet the NotPetya event is rarely mentioned as an insurance catastrophe and appears to have had no impact on availability of cover or terms. Rates are even reported to be declining significantly this year.

See also: How Insurtech Boosts Cyber Risk  

Large corporates are motivated buyers. They have an appetite for far greater coverage than limits that cap out at $500 million. Less than 40% of SMEs in the U.S. and U.K. had cyber insurance at the end of 2017, but that is far greater penetration than five years ago. The insurance market has an excess of capital to deploy. As the tools evolve, insurance limits will increase. Greater limits mean more premium, which in turn create more revenue to justify higher fees for licensing new cyber tools. Everyone wins.

Maybe.

Growing cyber insurance coverage is core to the strategy of many of the largest insurers.

Cyber risk has been available since at least 2004. Some of the major insurers have had an appetite for providing cyber cover for a decade or more. AIG is the largest writer, with more than 20% of the market. Chubb, Axis, XL Catlin and Lloyd’s insurer Beazley entered the market early and continue to increase their exposure to cyber insurance. Munich Re has declared that it wants to write 10% of the cyber insurance market by 2020 (when it estimates premium will be $8 billion to $10 billion). All of these companies are partnering with established experts in cyber risk, and start-ups, buying third party analytics and data. Some, such as Munich Re, also offer underwriting capacity to MGAs specializing in cyber.

The major brokers are building up their own skills, too. Aon acquired Stroz Friedberg in 2016. Both Guy Carpenter and JLT announced relationships earlier this year with cyber modeling company and Symantec spin off CyberCube. Not every major insurer is a cyber enthusiast. Swiss Re CEO Christian Mumenthaler declared that the company would stay underweight in its cyber coverage. But most insurers are realizing they need to be active in this market. According to Fitch, 75 insurers wrote more than $1 million each of annual cyber premiums last year.

But are the analytics keeping up?

Despite the existence of cyber analytic tools, part of the problem is that demand for insurance is constrained by the extent to which even the most credible tools can measure and manage the risk. Insurers are rightly cautious, and some skeptical, as to the extent to which data and analytics can be used to price cyber insurance. The inherent uncertainties of any model are compounded by a risk that is rapidly evolving, driven by motivated “threat actors” continually probing for weaknesses.

The biggest barrier to growth is the ability to confidently diversify cyber insurance exposures. Most insurers, and all reinsurers, can offer conventional insurance at scale because they expect losses to come from only a small part of their portfolio. Notwithstanding the occasional wildfire, fire risks tend to be spread out in time and geography, and losses are largely predicable year to year. Natural catastrophes such as hurricanes or floods can create unpredictable and large local concentrations of loss but are limited to well-known regions. Major losses can be offset with reinsurance.

Cyber crosses all boundaries. In today’s highly connected world, corporate and country boundaries offer few barriers to a determined and malicious assailant. The largest cyber writers understand the risk for potential contagion across their books. They are among the biggest supporters of the new tools and analytics that help understand and manage their cyber risk accumulation.

What about insurtech?

Insurer, investor or startup – everyone today is looking for the products that have the potential to achieve breakout growth. Established insurers want new solutions to new problems; investment funds are under pressure to deploy their capital. A handful of new companies are emerging, either to offer insurers cyber analytics or to sell cyber insurance themselves. Some want to do both. But is this sufficient?

The SME sector is becoming fertile ground for MGAs and brokers starting up or refocusing their offerings. But with such a huge, untapped market (85% of loss not insured), why aren’t cyber startups dominating the insurtech scene by now? The number of insurtech companies offering credible analytics for cyber seems disproportionately small relative to the opportunity and growth potential. Do we really need another startup offering insurance for flight cancellation, bicycle insurance or mobile phone damage?

While the opportunity for insurtech startups is clear, this is a tough area to succeed in. Building an industrial-strength cyber model is hard. Convincing an insurer to make multimillion-dollar bets on the basis of what the model says is even more difficult. Not everyone is going to be a winner. Some of the companies emerging in this space are already struggling to make sustainable commercial progress. Cyber risk modeler Cyence roared out from stealth mode fueled by $40 million of VC funding in September 2016 and was acquired by Guidewire a year later for $265 million. Today, the company appears to be struggling to deliver on its early promises, with rumors of clients returning the product and changes in key personnel.

The silent threat

The market for cyber is not just growing vertically. There is the potential for major horizontal growth, too. Cyber risks affect the mainstream insurance markets, and this gives another source of threat, but also opportunity.

Most of the focus on cyber insurance has been on the affirmative cover – situations where cyber is explicitly written, often as a result of being excluded from conventional contracts. Losses can also come from ” silent cyber,” the damage to physical assets triggered by an attack that would be covered under a conventional policy where cyber exclusions are not explicit. Silent cyber losses could be massive. In 2015, the Cambridge Risk Centre worked with Lloyd’s to model a power shutdown of the U.S. Northeast caused by an attack on power generators. The center estimated a minimum of $243 billion economic loss and $24 billion in insured loss.

In the current market conditions, cyber can be difficult to exclude from more traditional coverage such as property fire policies, or may just be overlooked. So far, there have been only a handful of small reported losses attributed to silent cyber. But now regulators are starting to ask companies to account for how they manage their silent cyber exposures. It’s on the future list of product features for some of the existing models. Helping companies address regulatory demands is an area worth exploring for startups in any industry.

See also: Breaking Down Silos on Cyber Risk  

Ultimately, we don’t yet care enough

We all know cyber risk exists. Intuitively, we understand an attack on our technology could be bad for us. Yet, despite the level of reported losses, few of us have personally, or professionally, experienced a disabling attack. The well-publicized attacks on large, familiar corporations, including, most recently, British Airways, have mostly affected only single companies. Data breach has been by far the most common type of loss. No one company has yet been completely locked out of its computer systems. WannaCry and NotPetya were unusual in targeting multiple organizations, with far more aggressive attacks that disabled systems, but on a very localized basis.

So, most of us underestimate both the risk (how likely), and the severity (how bad) of a cyber attack in our own lives. We are not as diligent as we should be in managing our passwords or implementing basic cyber hygiene. We, too, spend less than seven minutes a month thinking about our cyber risk.

This lack of deep fear about the cyber threat (some may call it complacency) goes further than increasing our own vulnerabilities. It also the reason we have more startups offering new ways to underwrite bicycles than we do companies with credible analytics for cyber.

Rationally, we know the risk exists and could be debilitating. Emotionally, our lack of personal experience means that cyber remains “interesting” but not “compelling” either as an investment or startup choice.

Getting involved

So, let’s not beat up the incumbents again. Insurance has a slow pulse rate. Change is geared around an annual cycle of renewals. It evolves, but slowly. Insurers want to write more cyber risk, but not blindly. The growth of the market relies on the tools to measure and manage the risk. The emergence of a new breed of technology companies, such as CyberCube, that combine deep domain knowledge in cyber analytics with an understanding of insurance and catastrophe modeling, is setting the standard for new entrants.

Managing cyber risk will become an increasingly important part of our lives. It’s not easy, and there are few shortcuts, but there are still plenty of opportunities to get involved helping to manage, measure and insure the risk. When (not if) a true cyber mega-catastrophe does happen, attitudes will change rapidly. Those already in the market, whether as investors, startups or forward thinking insurers, will be best-positioned to meet the urgent need for increased risk mitigation and insurance.

Blockchain’s Future in Insurance

Blockchain is a revolutionary technology that is likely to have a far-reaching impact on business – on a par with the transformative effect of the internet. Not surprisingly, the huge potential promised by blockchain has prompted a flurry of research activity across different sectors as diverse organizations race to develop applications.

In this article, we’ll explore the many benefits that blockchain could bring to the insurance industry and the different challenges that will need to be overcome.

Overview

Blockchain has strong potential in the short and long term in several different areas, particularly where it links with emerging technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI). But its potential for delivering new applications also depends on the development of blockchain technology itself. In the medium and short term, there are three categories where blockchain can be applied:

  • Data storage and exchange: Numerous data and files can be stored using blockchain. The technology provides for more secure, traceable records compared with current storage means.
  • Peer-to-peer electronic payment: Bitcoin (and other blockchain-based cash systems) is a cryptographic proof-based electronic payment system (instead of a trust-based one). This feature is highly efficient while ensuring transparent and traceable electronic transfer.
  • Smart contracts: Smart contracts are digital protocols whereby various parameters are set up in advance. When pre-set parameters are satisfied, smart contracts can execute various tasks without human intervention, greatly increasing efficiency.

Data storage and peer-to-peer electronic transfer are feasible blockchain applications for the short term. At this stage, the technical advantages of blockchain are mainly reflected in data exchange efficiencies, as well as larger-scale data acquisition.

See also: The Opportunities in Blockchain  

Smart contracts via blockchain will play a more important role in the medium to long term. By that time, blockchain-based technology will have a far-reaching impact on the business model of insurance companies, industrial management models and institutional regulation. Of course, there will be challenges to overcome, and further technological innovation will be needed as blockchain’s own deficiencies or risks emerge during its evolution. But just like internet technology decades ago, blockchain promises to be a transformative technology.

Scenarios for blockchain applications in insurance

Macro level

Proponents of blockchain technology believe it has the power to break the data acquisition barrier and revolutionize data sharing and data exchange in the industry. Small and medium-sized carriers could use blockchain-based technology to obtain higher-quality and more comprehensive data, giving them access to new opportunities and growth through more accurate pricing and product design in specific niche markets.

At the same time, blockchain-based insurance and reinsurance exchange platforms – that could include many parties – would also upgrade industry processes. For example, Zhong An Technology is currently working closely with reinsurers in Shanghai to try to establish a blockchain reinsurance exchange platform.

Scenario 1 – Mutual insurance

Blockchain is a peer-to-peer mechanism, via the DAO (decentralized autonomic organization) as a virtual decision-making center, and premiums paid by each and every insured are stored in the DAO. Each and every insured participant has the right to vote and therefore decide on final claim settlement when a claim is triggered. Blockchain makes the process transparent and highly efficient with secure premium collection, management and claim payment thanks to its decentralization.

In China, Trust Mutual Life has built a platform based on blockchain and biological identification technology. In August 2017, Trust Mutual Life launched a blockchain-based mutual life insurance product called a “Courtesy Help Account,” where every member can follow the fund. Plus, the platform reduces operational costs more than a traditional life insurance company of a similar size.

Scenario 2 – Microinsurance (short-term insurance products for certain specific scenarios)

An example of short-term insurance could be for car sharing or providers of booking and renting accommodation via the internet. Such products are mainly pre-purchased by the service provider and then purchased by end users. However, blockchain makes it possible for end users to purchase insurance coverage at any time based on their actual usage, inception and expiring time/date. In this way, records would be much more accurate and therefore avoid potential disputes.

Scenario 3 – Automatic financial settlement

The technical characteristics of blockchain have inherent advantages in financial settlement. Combined with smart contracts, blockchain can be applied efficiently and securely throughout the entire process of insurance underwriting, premium collection, indemnity payment and even reinsurance.

Micro level

Blockchain has the potential to change the pattern of product design, pricing and claim services.

Parametric insurance (e.g. for agricultural insurance, delay-in-flight insurance, etc.):

Parametric insurance requires real-time data interface and exchange among different parties. Although it is an efficient form of risk transfer, it still has room for further cost improvement. Taking parametric agricultural insurance and flight delay insurance as examples, a lot of human intervention is still required for claim settlement and payment.

With blockchain, the efficiency of data exchange can be significantly improved. Smart contracts can also further reduce human intervention in terms of claim settlement, indemnity payment, etc., which will significantly reduce the insurance companies’ operating costs. In addition, operating efficiency is increased, boosting customer satisfaction.

Some Chinese insurers are already working on blockchain-based agricultural insurance. In March 2018, for example, PICC launched a blockchain-based livestock insurance platform. Currently, the project is limited to cows. Each cow is identified and registered in the blockchain-based platform during its whole life cycle. All necessary information is uploaded and stored in real time in the platform. Claims are triggered and settled automatically via blockchain. The platform also serves as an efficient and reliable food safety tracing system.

Auto insurance, homeowners insurance: 

Blockchain has wider application scenarios in the field of auto insurance and homeowners insurance when combined with the IoT. There are applications from a single vehicle perspective as well as portfolios as a whole. From a standalone vehicle perspective, the complete history of each vehicle is stored in blocks. This feature allows insurers to have access to accurate information on each and every vehicle, plus maintenance, accidents, vehicle parts conditions, history and the owner’s driving habits. Such data facilitates more accurate pricing based on dedicated information for each and every single vehicle.

From the insured’s point of view, the combination of blockchain and IoT effectively simplifies the claims service process and claim settlement efficiency.

From the perspective of the overall vehicle, blockchain and IoT can drastically lower big data acquisition barriers, especially for small  and medium-sized carriers. This will have a positive impact on pricing accuracy and new product development in auto insurance.

Taking usage-based insurance (UBI) for autos as an example, it’s technically possible to record and share the exact time and route of an insured vehicle, meaning that UBI policies could be priced much more accurately. Of course, insurers will have to consider how to respond in situations where built-in sensors in the insured vehicle break or a connection fails. Furthermore, insurance companies also have to decide whether an umbrella policy is needed on top of the UBI policy, to control their exposure when such situations occur.

Cargo insurance:

Real-time information sharing of goods, cargo ships, vehicles, etc. is made possible with blockchain and the IoT. This will not only improve claims service efficiency but also help to reduce moral hazards.

In this regard, Maersk, EY Guardtime and XL Catlin recently launched a blockchain-based marine insurance platform cooperation project. Its aim is to facilitate data and information exchange, reduce operating costs among all stakeholders and improve the credibility and transparency of shared information.

International program placement and premium/claims management:

Blockchain-based technology allows insurance companies, brokers and corporate risk managers to improve the efficiency of international program settlement and daily management, at the same time reducing data errors from different countries and regions and avoiding currency exchange losses.

Coping with claim frauds:

Blockchain is already being applied to verify the validity of claims and the amount of adjustment. In Canada, the Quebec auto insurance regulator (Québec Auto Insurance) has implemented a blockchain-based information exchange platform. Driver information, vehicle registration information, the vehicle’s technical inspection result, auto insurance and claims information, etc. are all shared through the platform. The platform not only reduces insurance companies’ operating costs but also effectively helps to reduce fraud.

All insurance companies that have access to the platform receive a real-time notice when a vehicle is reported to be stolen. Insurance companies have full access to every vehicle’s technical information, which promotes more accurate pricing for individual policyholders.

Claims settlement:

Using a smart contract, the insured will automatically receive indemnity when conditions in the policy are met: Human intervention will not be needed to adjust the settlement. In the future, some insurance products will effectively be smart contracts whereby coverages, terms and conditions are actually the parameters of the smart contract. When the parameters are met, policies are triggered automatically by the smart contract and a record stored in the blockchain.

Business models like this will not only build higher trust in the insurance company but will also greatly increase its operational efficiency, reducing costs; it will also help to reduce moral hazard.

Internal management systems:

Internal management systems could be automated through use of blockchain and smart contracts, helping to improve management efficiency and reduce labor costs as well as the efficiency of compliance audit.

See also: How Insurance and Blockchain Fit  

Challenges and problems

Decentralization strengthens information sharing and reduces the monopoly advantages that information asymmetry provides. Under such circumstances, insurance companies have to pay more attention to pricing, product development, claims services and even reputation risk. All this adds up to new challenges for the company management.

At the same time, every aspect of the insurance industry must be more focused on ensuring the accuracy of original information at the initial stage of its business. Knowing how to respond to false declarations from insureds will be crucial.

From a more macro perspective, “localized blocks” of data will be inevitable in the early phase of development in line with the pace of technical development and regulatory constraints.

In theory, it is impossible to hack blockchain, but data protection will be an issue for localized blocks. Therefore, higher cyber security protection will be required to protect these localized blocks.

The interaction of blockchain with other technologies could mean that existing intermediary roles are replaced by new technologies in different sectors. If the insurance industry wants to ensure the continuous development of the intermediary, it should address the possible disruptive risks to existing distribution business models posed by blockchain.

The necessary investment (both tangible and intangible costs) associated with adopting blockchain technology is a big consideration for many companies at this stage. Insurance companies and reinsurance companies operate numerous systems, and the decision to integrate blockchain-based technology/platform shouldn’t be taken lightly. At the current stage of blockchain evolution, this could be one of the biggest obstacles facing insurers.

Overall, blockchain is an inspiring prospect, and there is every reason to believe that this technological breakthrough will bring positive effects to individual insurers everywhere. But at the same time, we need to understand the mutual challenges that lie ahead and work together to promote our industry’s development in what promises to be an exciting new era.

Download PDF version for endnotes and further reading.

3 Reasons Millennials Should Join Industry

With more than 70,000 expected U.S. retirees in 2017, the insurance industry faces an imminent talent crisis. Industry leaders have been eagerly searching for ways to recruit and attract young talent to replace the outgoing staff, but, due to poor industry perception, it remains an uphill battle.

The Insurance Careers Movement began as a grassroots, industry-wide initiative to combat the coming talent shortage and the ill-fated perception of the industry. We endeavor to empower young professionals who already work in insurance to share their feedback and experiences, educating their peers and students about the vast career opportunities available to them. As a part of the annual Insurance Careers Month each February, we conducted interviews with more than 30 millennials from a wide range of insurance carriers and agencies about their thoughts on the industry.

Contrary to the general perception outsiders have of insurance, findings from the interviews revealed that many younger workers view insurance as a dynamic field with significant opportunities for growth and development of personal relationships with customers and coworkers. In fact, their responses largely resemble the theme of the movement, referring to insurance as, “the career trifecta,” to emphasize the idea that pursuing a profession in insurance is stable, rewarding and limitless.

Here are the three recurring themes mentioned across all the interviews:

1.It’s Stable

In many of the interviews, one of the distinct benefits of working in insurance is the extensive career options, and the flexibility to try different sections of companies. A recent graduate can begin with underwriting, then branch into marketing, risk management or any other career path she wishes to pursue.

See also: 10 Commandments for Young Professionals  

The insurance industry holds a long, rich history and is in nearly every part of the world. Therefore, there is a vast number of opportunities available in many areas of the field, adding to the stability factor. Ashley Jenkins, controller at Pioneer State Mutual Insurance, said, “Insurance companies are very stable compared with many other industries. As an example, my current insurance employer and prior insurance employer did not have to lay off any employees during the major financial crises in 2008 and 2011.” Additionally, according to the National Insurance Brokers Association, the median salaries in insurance are all well above the national average at around $30,000 a year. With more than 75,000 jobs opening up due to retirement, members of younger generations are being afforded regular growth opportunities, promoting a stable career path that doesn’t exist in many fields; today’s young employee tends to change jobs four times before they’re age 32.

2.It’s Rewarding

Although many jobs require employees to sit in cubicles, a career in insurance allows people to interact and cultivate relationships with other customers and coworkers. Koory Esquibel, TRAC risk analyst at Marsh, said, “One of my favorite parts about this industry, and the reason why it is so easy to recommend to students and new graduates, is the ability to form so many strong relationships with colleagues and business partners.” This is a pivotal time in insurance where improved employee and customer interaction is happening at all points of the workflow. Between mobile technologies to better interact with customers and analytics to improve speeds of underwriting and claims processes, the industry has never prioritized innovation so aggressively.

According to the survey conducted as a part of the Insurance Careers Movement, more than 92% of millennials working in insurance said that they are proud to work within the industry and want to promote the benefits and opportunities it provides. Their answers also revealed that millennials are already putting efforts into recruiting their peers, as 73% of respondents said that they have tried to convince at least one of their friends to choose a career in the risk management and insurance industry.

3.It’s Limitless

With the wave of digital innovation looming and new regulations and product offerings being created daily, the insurance industry is more dynamic than ever before. Employees at all levels, regardless of their areas of focus, are challenged to come up with creative solutions to tackle emerging problems. Yasmin Ahmed at Marsh said that she was “drawn to work in insurance because of the career mobility and succession planning.  Seasoned insurance professionals plan to retire within the next five years, providing more career advancement for young people.”

In fact, according to the Jacobson Group and Ward Group Insurance Labor Outlook Study, the insurance industry has added 100,000 new jobs in the past five years, and 66% of insurers expect to increase staff this year. The number of opportunities and intellectual challenge are perfect for millennials as, according to the My Path survey, new graduates are more interested in career advancement possibilities (25%) and learning opportunities (20%) when considering a job than older generations. Therefore, young professionals consider development within their careers more important than salary or benefits.

While the industry remained largely stagnant for years, the technological disruption is closing the experience gap and opening important roles for those interested in data science careers combined with creativity. In fact, Accenture’s fintech report found that investments in insurtech more than tripled from $800 million in 2014 to more than $2.6 billion in 2015. In addition to the heavy focus and investments in IT, startups like Lemonade are joining the industry with new technology-based business models. The entrance of startups has already brought recent changes as it motivated insurance giants to expand their focus. Some of the world’s largest insurers, such as Aviva, Axa and XL Catlin, announced their efforts to establish in-house venture capital funds and stated that they will be dedicating more than $1 billion investments in startups to spearhead digital transformation. This focus on new technology also creates more opportunities for the younger generation, as they can make contributions to their team regardless of the job titles.

See also: Can We Disrupt Ourselves?  

Most say that millennials are known for job-hopping. However, according to a recent Census study, once they’re satisfied, most will stay at the place of employment for three to six years. The bottom line is that carriers must not blame the generation for their lack of interest in insurance and instead work on raising awareness about the value the industry offers. Right now, a lack of talent is one of the biggest challenges for innovation growth. Insurers will have to make concerted efforts to follow through the recruitment process and provide robust training program to attract and retain young professionals. Through recognizing the underlying cause of the crisis and making an industry-wide endeavor, the insurance industry will be able to grow as a whole and successfully combat the talent shortage.

Is Terrorism the New Normal for Insurers?

After several mass shootings across the U.S. – in Orlando, San Bernardino, Charleston and elsewhere that, whatever the motivation, created terror – the insurance industry is responding with new “standalone terrorism” coverage.

Does this reflect a level of acceptance of such incidents, and of gun violence, as a “new normal,” something we’ll just need to live with?

I don’t think so. In fact, the responses of insurers illustrate their key role: helping individuals, businesses and other organizations deal with unforeseen harm and tragedy, and recover from it.

As cited by Carrier Management in August, the FBI’s “Study of Active Shooter Incidents Between 2000 and 2013” reported that 70% of incidents took place in either a commerce/business or educational environment. The findings establish an increasing frequency of incidents, the report said.

Until this year, insurance didn’t respond to “lone wolf” shooting incidents because of two factors. One is the parameters set forth by the Terrorism Risk and Insurance Act (TRIA). Staggered by the massive losses from the 9/11 attacks, Congress passed legislation that provided for similar, large events. To qualify for coverage through the act, losses from a terrorist event must total at least $5 million – far exceeding the property damages that have resulted from shootings and similar attacks.

See also: How to Develop Plan on Terrorism Risks  

The other factor is the lack of clarity regarding what’s covered by commercial general liability insurance. In the same article, John Powter, president of GDP Advisors in McKinney, Texas, says the general liability part of a commercial policy doesn’t clearly cover or exclude active shooter incidents. “There is a concern, or gray area, with the general liability policy – in reality, it was never designed to cover an active shooter incident,” he said.

The shift in the nature of terror

Earlier this year, Insurance Business reported on research by KPMG that noted that the changing nature of ideologically motivated crime has yet to be addressed by insurance coverages.

“There is a shift in the nature of terror,” the publication quoted KPMG partner Paul Merrey as saying. “In the 1990s, it was about property damage. The incidents we’re seeing now are about maximizing casualties. There is a gap between what insurers are providing cover for and what customers actually want.”

He added that the gap will “go from a gray area to excluded,” as was the case with cyber risks – which, in turn, led to entirely new cyberrisk insurance.

In a similar response, insurers introduced new standalone terrorism insurance earlier this year.

Bermuda-based insurer XL Catlin introduced an “active assailant” policy in February. The policy provides “time element” coverage, which includes business interruption and extra expense coverage.

Ben Tucker, head of U.S. terrorism and political violence insurance for the company, told Insurance Business that “the level of awareness is increasing quite dramatically, and it’s not limited to large-risk management types of exposures.” The company has received inquiries about the coverage from agents and brokers representing school districts, public buildings and small hospitality firms.

The policy, the publication reported, is triggered when an event involving a handheld weapon affects three or more people. In this policy, “affects” has a broad definition: a person affected could simply be a witness to such an event.

GDP Advisors in February introduced an Active Shooter Insurance Program underwritten through Lloyd’s of London. Powter told Carrier Management that the coverage originally was intended for educational institutions, but soon after it was launched GDP received inquiries from banks, hotels, sports venues, amusement parks and other businesses.

The real value: preventing injuries and losses

Powter added that the “real value of the policy” is in its provision of risk management and crisis response services. Those are important, he said, because many businesses and educational institutions are now learning how to best respond if an incident occurs at their facility.

And that’s perhaps the most important response by insurers. When they insure any organizations, insurers take steps — risk management services — to help prevent losses from occurring.

Those services are especially valuable to businesses and other entities that have purchased active assailant coverage. Students and teachers at schools where shootings have occurred said that the safety drills and procedures they practiced helped to minimize injuries and losses and, perhaps, save lives.

Does coverage for such attacks imply an acceptance of them? Only in the same sense that other types of insurance imply an acceptance of fires, storms or other natural disasters. They’re incidents that could happen, and require specific safeguards, preparation and insurance.

See also: How to Find Coverage for Terrorism Risks

Society must address the threat of terrorism, whether via large attacks or the actions of one individual. Anyone who follows the news is familiar with the many options being discussed and debated by policymakers.

But as those threats persist, insurers must deliver both preventive measures and coverage for damages, whether to property or the psyches of survivors and witnesses. That’s the type of response we expect from insurance companies.

What Does 2016 Have in Store for Us?

It’s the time of the year when we look back fondly at the year just gone and look forward with trepidation and excitement at the year ahead. 2015 was, all in all, a good year for most, with a number of significant events that saw a good end to the year. Weather, on the whole, was mild, with the UK floods over Christmas being responded to well by all. Regardless of the news/political agendas, we are still investing £2.3 billion into flood defenses over the coming years.

As we look forward, here are my thoughts on how we start 2016. What do you think? As always, I look forward to your feedback!

1. FinTech and InsurTech. 2015 will be remembered as the year of the zone, loft, garage and accelerator. This trend will continue with a new level of maturity and focus. We will see the emergence of the first three to four successful candidates from accelerators, as well as more failures (we need more to help hone the focus). Either way, this trend will continue upward as we look for the next unicorn and existing carriers worry about FOMO (fear of missing out).

We will see more acquisition in this space, too, where existing carriers acquire to improve or extend their value chain and reach — for example, as we did last year with Generali and MyDrive.

2. Evolution of IoT. The Internet of Things buzz has reached a fever pitch. (I’ve even written about it myself.) 2016 will be the year we all realize it’s just another data/automated question set, from connected homes, cars and fridges to the connected self. Focus will move to strong use cases and business cases, but anything here on its own will not survive. It needs a partner – or three.

3. Digital and data. 2016 will continue to be a big area of growth for both, and I’ve bundled them as I believe they are intrinsically linked. That said, if you haven’t done anything here yet, you are very late to an already crowded party. Both will continue with huge levels of interest and hype, but both need to move into genuine execution of the plans made last year. Ultimately, the only thing that matters here is the customer. Don’t just have a plan because others are doing it. It needs to be right for you and your particular customer segment.

4. M&A will continue but will slow. 2015 saw a record-breaking year for M&A in the insurance world. As the economic climate changes and we see interest rates rise in 2016, I see this slowing down, while the current set of newly combined companies focuses on bringing together the multiple new units into a cohesive, efficient, fighting machine.

5. Will the CDO survive? (By CDO, I mean either the chief digital officer or the chief data officer.) As with my first point, the focus and drive in these areas has been great; there has been the right effect and a wake-up call. However, for organizations that implemented these “change agents” and “purposeful” disruptive roles, I suspect we will see a move back to a focus on the chief customer officer.

6. New business models. To take advantage of all this data, technology, customer intent and more, we need to find and be clear on what the new business model will– and needs to– be.

7. What we buy and sell. We need to move away from a product mindset and become more relevant and more convenient – my two favorite terms when it comes to insurance. Rick Huckstep did a good piece on engagement insurance, which, to me, sums up how we better embed ourselves into daily life, rather than once a year or in the current cycle. This is where organizations such as Trov will come into play. Trov and others will be more integrated into our everyday lives, becoming more convenient, seamless and relevant to us, driving more engagement. From a convenience perspective, companies such as Cuvva made the news last year. This is just the start of things to come. The key questions are whether they can scale and whether they will make money. Peer-to-peer also made lots of noise; however, I think the same questions here apply.

I still feel we will move away from the current product mindset we have today to just buying complete cover for the individual and anything she does, regardless of where she is. I previously called this the “rise of the personal SME.” I expect to have insurance rather than five to 10 products.

8. Cyber is the new digital. While the last few years have focused heavily on digital transformation and data, this year will see a big shift in focus to cyber, both on the buy and sell side, with organizations moving quickly to not be the next headline for the wrong reasons. So, each organization needs to have the right measures in place, followed by the right cover. For carriers, this means new products and opportuniti,es with specialists including ACE, XL Catlin and Beazley already making strong moves.

We started 2015 by saying that the risk was simply too big to cover and finished it with calls for a government-backed reinsurance scheme for cyber, as we have already created for floods. Is it a real need or a political agenda? My view is that it’s a real need, regardless of the politics.

9. Partnerships and bundling. Like many of the points above, on their own, partnerships and bundling are significant issues and opportunities but perhaps don’t answer the key questions around relevance, engagement, etc. For this, I see a big rise in the partnerships between insurers and third parties or the orchestration/bundling of services that just happens to include insurance. Insurers could become the systems integrator for lifestyle services, by default increasing relevance and engagement.

Finally, let’s not take our eye off the here-and-now. Organizations will continue to need to run the ship, BAU is still BAU (business as usual). We must aim to reduce internal costs and inefficiency. Not one organization I have spoken to over the last year is not riddled with legacy and has clear ambitions to reduce costs and improve efficiency – all to further drive support for the year of the customer.

However we look at things, 2016 is looking like it will be an exciting year. I look forward to sharing it with you!