Tag Archives: predictive modeling

Analytics at the Next Level: Transformation Is in Sight

Although insurance companies are embracing analytics in many forms to a much higher degree than other businesses, adoption by the insurance industry is still only in its adolescent stage. Deployment is broad but inconsistent. The use of analytics may be about to mature considerably, though, based on a recent series of mergers and acquisitions.

Currently, while a majority of large carriers use predictive modeling in one of more lines of business, and mostly in personal lines auto, a smaller percentage use it in their commercial auto and property units. Insurers recognize predictive analytics as a critical tool for improving top-line growth and profitability while managing risk and improving operational efficiency. Insurers believe predictive analytics can create competitive advantage and increase market share.

Fueling even greater excitement – and soon to be driving transformational innovation – is the recent surge of M&A activity by both new and nontraditional players, which have combined risk management and sophisticated analytics expertise with robust and diverse industry database services. The list of recent deals includes:

  • CoreLogic’s 2014 purchase of catastrophe modeling firm Eqecat, following its 2013 acquisition of property data provider Marshall & Swift/Boeckh; a significant minority interest in Symbility, provider of cloud-based and smartphone/tablet-enabled property claims technology for the property and casualty insurance industry; and the credit and flood services units of DataQuick.
  • Statutory and public data provider SNL Insurance’s 2014 purchase of business intelligence and analytics firm iPartners, which serves P&C and life companies.
  • Verisk Analytics’ 2014 acquisition of EagleView Technology, a digital aerial property imaging and measurement solution.
  • LexisNexis Risk Solutions’ 2013 acquisition of Mapflow, a geographic risk assessment technology company with solutions that complement the data, advanced analytics, supercomputing platform and linking capabilities offered by LexisNexis.

Other 2013/2014 transactions that have broad implications for the insurance analytics and information technology ecosystem include:

  • Guidewire Software, a provider of core management system software and related products for property and casualty insurers, acquired Millbrook, a provider of data management and business intelligence and analytic solutions for P&C insurers.
  • IHS, a global leader in critical information and analytics, acquired automotive information database provider R.L. Polk, which owns the vehicle history report provider Carfax. 
  • FICO, a leading provider of analytics and decision management technology, acquired Infoglide Software, a provider of entity resolution and social network analysis solutions used primarily to improve fraud detection, security and compliance.
  • CCC Information Services, a database, software, analytics and solutions provider to the auto insurance claims and collision repair markets, acquired Auto Injury Solutions, a provider of auto injury medical review solutions. This transaction follows CCC’s acquisition of Injury Sciences, which provides insurance carriers with scientifically based analytic tools to help identify fraudulent and exaggerated injury claims associated with automobile accidents.
  • Mitchell International, a provider of technology, connectivity and information solutions to the P&C claims and collision repair industries, plans to acquire Fairpay Solutions, which provides workers’ compensation, liability and auto-cost-containment and payment-integrity services. Fairpay will expand Mitchell’s solution suite of bill review and out-of-network negotiation services and complements its acquisition of National Health Quest in 2012.

Based on these acquisitions and the other trends driving the use of analytics, it will be increasingly possible to:

  • Integrate cloud services, M2M, data mining and analytics to create the ultimate insurance enterprise platform.
  • Identify profitable customers, measure satisfaction and loyalty and drive cross/up-sell programs.
  • Capitalize on emerging technologies to improve pool optimization, create dynamic pricing models and reduce loss and claims payout.
  • Encourage “management by analytics” to overcome departmental or product-specific views of customers, update legacy systems and reduce operating spending over the enterprise.
  • Explore external data sources to better understand customer risk, pricing, attrition and opportunities for exploring emerging markets.                       

As the industry is beginning to understand, the breadth of proven analytics applications and the seemingly unlimited potential to identify even more, coupled with related M&A market activity that will drive transformational innovation, indicates that the growing interest in analytics will be well-rewarded. Those that are paying the most attention will become market leaders.

Stephen will be Chairing Analytics for Insurance USA, Chicago, March 19-20, 2014.

Workers’ Compensation Comes of Age

With close to $40 billion in net written premium, the workers’ compensation line of business is an important driver of financial success for many property/casualty insurers. It has come a long way since its inception roughly 100 years ago. 

As we move forward into the second century of workers’ compensation, it’s possible to anticipate many of the challenges (and opportunities) that are coming. What follows is a checklist of areas to watch.

CLAIMS FREQUENCY—Many aspects of the U.S. economy should help keep claims frequency flat or negative in the near future, including:

An increasing underground economy

In April, Mark Koba, a senior editor at CNBC, chronicled the growth of a large shadow economy of workers who, because they are unable to find regular employment, are taking jobs under the table with no reportable income or taxes. Since these workers have no workers’ compensation insurance protection, medical costs may shift from the workers’ compensation system to the health care system. With some estimates showing construction employment at just 75 percent of 2007 levels, it’s possible that a portion of these jobs are being filled by under-the-table workers. If that’s the case, these traditional higher-frequency classes may not show up as heavily in the industry’s calculations as they have in the past—moderating frequency trends going forward.

Growth in Social Security disability payments

Also in April, CNN Money reported a 29% increase in the number of Americans with little or no employment income who receive disability payments. For those who were formerly employed, the increase was a staggering 44%. In 2011, according to the CNN report, the federal government spent almost $250 billion on disability payments to some 23 million Americans. Although this is a ballooning liability for the federal government, the impact on workers’ compensation insurers is largely in the opposite direction. As workers who are less than healthy exit the workforce, the remaining pool of healthier workers will lead to claims frequency decreases in the future.

Expansion of other state and federal backstops

Since the recession began, there’s been a dramatic increase in federal and state assistance. A March article that appeared on the MoneyNews website reported that the number of food stamp recipients reached a record high in 2012, with an average of 46.6 million people receiving food stamp benefits each month. According to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) data, total food stamp benefits increased from $30.4 billion in 2007 to $74.6 billion in 2012, a 145% increase. As state unemployment benefits and other backstop programs cover more people for longer periods, the pool of future workers’ compensation claimants likely to file claims shrinks. When individuals leverage government backstop programs and choose not to work, workers’ compensation insurers benefit.

Older workers not retiring

People are working longer. For the manufacturing industries, this most likely means a dramatic reduction in the number of new employees entering the workforce. Although older workers have higher claims severity, new workers have significantly higher claims frequency.

Workplace health and safety efforts

The risk management and environmental, health, and safety departments of companies continue to focus on enhancing return-to-work programs, promoting workplace wellness, and improving workplace safety. These efforts continue to bear fruit, especially as the workforce ages and the adverse impacts of obesity receive more attention.

Part-time to full-time bias on frequency

Workers’ compensation frequency is often calculated as a ratio of the number of lost-time claims per an adjusted payroll amount. To the extent that recent payroll increases have been driven by more part-time workers converting to full-time work, the doubling of exposure for current workers isn’t the same as doubling the number of workers. In the short term, a heavier reliance on existing employees working longer hours very likely will help make frequency statistics look better. This trend could reverse if smaller employers keep their head count under 50 employees or reduce employee hours to part time (under 30 hours) to mitigate the impact of the employer mandate in the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Newly added part-time workers are likely to bring higher claim frequency, while workers taken below the 30-hour threshold to avoid employer-mandated health care might have an increased incentive to shift claims to workers’ compensation.

SEVERITY—A number of coalescing factors could drive medical and indemnity severity higher in the years ahead, including:

Rising interest rates

With the Federal Reserve finally winding down its quantitative easing programs, interest rates will be heading higher. To the degree that this coincides with an improving economy, indemnity severity is likely to tick up with rising wage pressure. Medical severity, which historically has run at roughly double the medical consumer price index, is likely to rise from the 3% levels we are experiencing today. Severity trends in the 6% to 7% range may be manageable in light of today’s rate increases, but it will be difficult to expand profit margins over the long term if medical inflation returns to double-digit levels.

Claims predictive modeling

Companies increasingly are using advanced analytics to identify claims for triage as early as the first notice of loss. By identifying the highest severity claims, assigning the appropriate resources for triage, and doing a better job on referrals from special investigative units, companies are favorably affecting the duration and severity of claims.

Obesity

The obesity statistics are staggering. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that in 2010, 36% of Americans age 20 or older were obese. The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation in a 2012 report predicted that obesity rates for adults over the next 20 years would reach or exceed 44% in every state in the United States, and exceed 60% in 13 of those states. Recent NCCI studies show that the ratio in the medical costs per claim of obese to nonobese claimants at the end of five years is 5.3, and the duration of obese claimants is five times that of nonobese claimants. Given the fact that workers of all ages are struggling with maintaining a healthy weight, workers’ compensation costs will only increase as other comorbidities associated with obesity increase costs.

An aging workforce

As workers age, gradual changes in hearing, vision, strength, and balance may lead to increased probabilities and durations of workplace injuries, including sprains, strains, slips and falls, carpal tunnel syndrome, knee and shoulder problems, hip replacements, and back issues. A 2012 NCCI study, however, concluded that an aging workforce appears to have far less of a negative impact on workers’ compensation claims costs than was previously thought. Although there’s evidence that injured workers older than 35 years have higher costs than those younger than 35, costs associated with injured worker cohorts older than 35 tend to be quite similar. And while older workers have more costly injuries, the NCCI observed that such injuries are becoming more prominent in younger workers.

While the NCCI has presented conflicting data on the claim costs of older workers, we know that the number of older workers in the workforce will nearly double in the next 15 to 20 years. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services estimates that the 39.6 million persons age 65 years or older today will increase to roughly 72.1 million by 2030. That equates to roughly one in every five Americans being 65 or older. While the jury is out on the precise impact of an aging workforce on claim frequency and severity, an aging workforce increases the likelihood of more severe injuries and longer claim durations.

LONG-TERM TRENDS—On the plus side, several trends are emerging that could benefit workers’ compensation insurers in the long run, including:

Price transparency

When the Surgery Center of Oklahoma in Oklahoma City started posting its prices online four years ago, it forced competing area hospitals to follow suit. Although it will take time to catch hold across the country, greater price transparency in the delivery of health care could benefit workers’ compensation insurers. Running counter to this trend is the pace of consolidation in health care. The ACA, with its focus on accountable care organizations (ACOs), electronic medical records, and other coordination-of-care rewards, is fueling consolidation in health care at an unprecedented rate. With increased consolidation comes increased local pricing power, and workers’ compensation insurers could find themselves on the wrong end of that pricing pendulum.

Opioid use

The epidemic of opioid abuse that had swept the nation is finally starting to abate. State governors, attorneys general, and legislatures are passing laws to toughen criminal and administrative penalties for doctors and clinics, establishing standards of care for doctors who prescribe narcotics, increasing the reporting and tracking of prescriptions, and limiting reimbursements to physicians who dispense prescription drugs to no more than a certain percentage above cost. State agencies, local agencies, and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration also are aggressively prosecuting individuals involved in illegal prescribing activity and “pill mills,” causing physicians, nurse practitioners, and pharmacies to surrender their federal licenses to dispense controlled substances. In the most serious cases, the offenders have had to surrender their medical licenses to state medical/pharmacy boards. Physicians and medical boards also have developed resources to guide physicians on responsible opioid prescribing, and there’s been a rise in the number of physicians who have had their licenses suspended by state medical boards for the unlawful distribution of controlled substances and for prescription drug fraud. Organizations like the Federation of State Medical Boards and Physicians for Responsible Opioid Prescribing also have joined the fight.

Given the high-profile nature of these efforts to define the proper use of opioids in treating injured workers, it’s likely the workers’ compensation line will see an effect. With medical expenses exceeding 60% of workers’ compensation costs, 20% of that going toward prescription drugs, this would be a welcome development.

Medical tourism

Medical tourism continues to grow as an option for patients all across America. An airline magazine recently had advertisements from hospitals outside the United States showing savings of 50% to 80% on procedures such as knee and hip replacements that are common in workers’ compensation. The general cost in the United States for a knee replacement was shown at $34,000, versus the overseas cost of just $10,000. A hip replacement was listed as $35,000 versus the overseas cost of just $11,000. Even with the cost of airfare, transportation, and hotel accommodations, the potential savings are significant (acknowledging that we aren’t attempting to control for quality or safety differences). With several companies and health insurers investigating offering medical tourism options to their employees and insureds, there could come a day when workers’ compensation insurers could leverage these tremendous savings to help drive down severity for certain procedures. While businesses may welcome the cost savings, we recognize that persuading state legislatures and injured workers to agree to these practices could be difficult.

The ACA

Several economist and workers’ compensation industry stakeholders have predicted that the ACA will create shifts in the workers’ compensation industry. But exactly how isn’t clear. Many refer to the Massachusetts Health Care Reform Act to bolster the argument that the ACA will lower overall health care costs and workers’ compensation costs. Under Massachusetts health care reform, costs within the workers’ compensation system decreased. Although ACA is more complex, similar provisions in the two laws allow a comparison of the impact on the workers’ compensation system. Analysis by RAND in 2012 found that expanding coverage to previously uninsured individuals resulted in a drop in workers’ compensation costs in Massachusetts. Finding an association between being insured and the frequency of workers’ compensation claims, RAND concluded that expanding the population holding group health insurance could reduce cost shifting to workers’ compensation.

In a May blog posting, Joe Paduda, a principal at Health Strategy Associates, affirmed his belief that the overall effect of the ACA on workers’ compensation would be positive, citing among other things, that it would lessen the motivation for cost shifting and fraudulent claims. Others have argued that increasing access to care and expanding preventive services, coupled with employer-sponsored wellness initiatives, should make the working population healthier overall, leading to a reduction in claim frequency and faster recoveries when injuries do occur.

On the other hand, some speculate that the ACA will increase workers’ compensation costs over time by straining already scarce primary care resources and causing longer wait times for treatment. The projected shortage of primary care physicians could make it more difficult for injured workers to find a physician. This, in turn, could lead to increased costs because of extended disability durations while waiting to see a physician. Others have pointed out that a decreasing supply of physicians and increasing patient demand could drive costs higher. Other factors that could affect cost shifting are significant increases in copayments and high-deductible health plans—costs that employees must bear. This could motivate some employees to file workers’ compensation claims for nonoccupational injuries.

According to findings from a recent study by Assured Research, a connection between increased health insurance coverage and decreased workers’ compensation costs isn’t supported by the data. The study evaluated health insurance penetration rates by state from 1999 to 2011 and corresponding statewide workers’ compensation loss ratios. After adjusting for national workers’ compensation trends, the results showed 31 states with rising health care penetration that resulted in decreased loss ratios. On the other hand, 20 states with rising health care penetration experienced increased loss ratios.

Immigration reform

There are approximately 11 million undocumented people living in the United States. Many don’t file workers’ compensation claims for fear of being deported. The general consensus is that legalizing undocumented immigrants will increase workers’ compensation claims. At the same time, immigrant workers are more prevalent in high-risk sectors such as agriculture, construction, and landscaping. With an influx of workers into a high-risk injury class, the potential impact on frequency and severity in the workers’ compensation system can’t be overlooked.

Anticipate and Plan

British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli once quipped, “What we anticipate seldom occurs, what we least expect generally happens.” Still, it’s important to anticipate and plan for the future risk. There’s little doubt that change is looming for workers’ compensation insurers and that actuaries have a key role to play in identifying and managing the transformation.

Authors

Denise Gillen-Algire and Kevin Bingham collaborated with Bill Van Dyke and William Wilt in writing this article.

Bill Van Dyke, an associate of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a member of the Academy, is a specialist leader at Deloitte Consulting LLP in Hartford, Conn. He has extensive actuarial experience in managing and performing workers’ compensation unpaid claim reserve and pricing analyses for state funds, insurers, reinsurers, state agencies, municipalities, self-insured corporations, and captives.

William Wilt, a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society, is president of Assured Research, a research and advisory firm focused on property/casualty insurance. Prior to forming Assured, he held diverse roles as an actuary, as a credit and equity analyst, and in corporate development.

This article first appeared in the November | December 2013 issue of Contingencies Magazine and is © 2013 American Academy of Actuaries. Reprinted with the permission of the American Academy of Actuaries.  All Rights Reserved.

Waiver Of Premium: The Unmanaged Liability

This is Part 1 of a two-part series on waiver of premium. Part 2 can be found here.

Insurance actuaries consider waiver of premium (WOP) a neglected liability — a supplemental benefit rider that has yet to be fully evaluated for risk exposure or cost containment, unknowingly costing individual and group life insurance carriers billions in liability every year.

The problem is that many companies don't have accurate claim management systems capable of reporting what's really happening with the life waiver reserves that are sitting on their books. But with a 44 percent increase in disability claims by people formerly in the workplace1, it's time this largely ignored liability is held up to the light.

Why Companies Need To Pay Attention
Most life insurers aren't fully aware of how much of a liability they're carrying when it comes to their waiver of premium reserves. Moreover, they're even less likely to know critical information such as the number of open life waiver claims, the percentage of approvals and denials, or claims still holding reserves that perhaps maxed out years ago.

Tom Penn-David, Principal of the actuarial consulting firm Ant Re, LLC explains: “There are generally two components to life waiver reserves. The first is active life reserves (for individual insurers only) and the second is disabled life reserves, which is by far the larger of the two. A company that has as few as 1,000 open waiver claims with a face value of $100,000 per policy, may be reserving $25+ million on their balance sheet, depending on the age and terms of the benefits. This is a significant figure when coupled with the fact that many life insurers do not appear to be enforcing their contract provisions and have a higher than necessary claim load. Reserve reductions are both likely and substantial if the proper management systems are in place.”

Unfortunately, by not knowing what's broken the situation can't be fixed. Companies need to examine their numbers in order to recognize the level of reserve liability they're carrying, and to see for themselves the significant financial and operational consequences of not paying attention. Furthermore, a company's senior financial management team may be underestimating the actual number of their block of waiver claims, thus downplaying the potential for savings in this area. Typically, the block of existing claims is much larger than new claims added in any given year, and often represents the largest portion of overall liability.

“Life companies are primarily focused on life insurance reserves and not carefully looking at waiver of premium,” Oscar Scofield of Factor Re Services U.S. and former CEO of Scottish Re., says. “There could be a significant reserve redundancy or deficiency in disabled life reserves and companies need to pay attention to recognize the impact this has on their bottom line.”

To illustrate this point, let's take a quick look at the financial possibilities for a company with even a small block of life waiver claims:

Example – Individual Life Carrier Current Reserve Snapshot With Proactive Management
Number of Open WOP Claims 1,000 1,000
(*) Average Disability Life Reserves (DLR) $19,989,255 $19,989,255
(*) Average Mortality Reserves $3,046,722 $3,046,722
Average Premiums Paid by Carrier on Approved WOP Claims $754,427 $754,427
Average Total Reserve Liabilities $23,790,404 $23,790,404
Claim Approval Percentage 90% 60%
Reserves Based on Approval Percentage $21,411,364 $14,274,242
Potential Reserve Savings $7,137,121

* The above reserve data is based on Statutory Annual Statements.

As you can see, even under the most conservative scenarios, the reserve savings are substantial when a proactive waiver of premium claim management process is put into action.

Industry Challenges
The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) requires life companies to report financials that include both the number of policyholders who aren't disabled with life waiver, as well as reserves for those who are currently disabled and utilizing their life waiver benefits. But many items, like the number of new claims or the amount of benefit cost are not reported. Moreover, companies rarely move beyond these life waiver reporting touch-points to effectively monitor their life waiver claim management processes or to identify the impact of contract definitions on their claim costs.

The new and ongoing volume of claim information, manual processing, and the fact that life waiver claims involve months if not years of consistent, close monitoring, is humanly challenging — if not impossible. For example, it's not out of the ordinary to have only a few people assigned to process literally thousands of life waiver claims.

It's unfortunate, but this type of manual claim reporting continues to remain unchanged as claim personnel (working primarily off of three main documents: the attending physician's statement, the employee statement, and the claim form), quickly push claims through the system. The process is such that once these documents are reviewed (and unless there are any questionable red flags), the claim continues to be viewed as eligible, is paid, and then set-up for review another 12-months down the road. As long as the requests continue to come in and the attending physician still classifies the claimant as disabled and incapable of working, there isn't much done to proactively manage and advance the claim investigation.

An equally challenging part of the life waiver claim process is working off the attending physician statement — both when claims are initially processed, as well as when they are recertified. Typically very generic in nature, the statement often only indicates whether or not the claimant is or continues to be unable to work. This problematic approach essentially permits the physician to drive the course of the claim decision away from the management of the insurance company. The insurer, who is now having to rely on the physician's report to fully understand and evaluate the scope of the claimant's medical condition, has little information in which to manage the risk.

For example, did the evaluation accurately assess the claimant's ability to work infrequently or not at all? Are they able to sit, stand, walk, lift, or drive? If so, then what are the specific measurable limitations? Is there potential to transition them back into their previous occupation or into an occupation that requires sedentary or light duty — either now or in the near future? In order for companies to move beyond the face value of what has initially been reported, and to monitor where the claimant is in the process, they need to build better business models.

Closing The Technology Gap
The insurance industry as a whole has always been a slow responder when it comes to technology. But for companies to optimize profitability, closing the gaps in life waiver claim management and operational inefficiencies will require a combination of technology and human intervention. Investing in the right blend of people, processes, and technology with real-time capabilities, can substantially reduce block loads and improve overall risk results.

Constructing a well-defined business model to apply standardized best practices that can support and monitor life waiver claims is critical. The adjudication process must move beyond obvious “low hanging fruit” to consistently evaluate the life of the claim holistically. It means not only examining open claim blocks, but also those that are closed, to better identify learning and coaching opportunities to improve future claim outcomes.

Additionally, segmentation can provide great insight into specific areas within the block, by applying predictive modeling techniques. It can evaluate how claims were originally assessed, the estimated duration, and why a claim has been extended. For example, was there something regarding the claim that occurred to warrant the extension of benefits such as change in diagnosis?

Predictive modeling also looks at how certain diagnoses are trending within the life waiver block, so if anything stands out regarding potential occupational training opportunities, benefit specialists can effectively introduce the appropriate vocational resources at the right time for the insured.

Capabilities to improve outcomes in waiver of premium operations through technology and automation should include these three primary assessments:

  • Financial: Companies need to start looking at waiver of premium differently. They need to continually evaluate the declining profit margins on in-force reserves in order to identify the impact on profits. Even if a waiver of premium reserve block is somewhere between 10 and 200 million dollars, potential savings are likely to be 10 to 20%. Better risk management tools can substantially control internal costs and improve reserve balances.
  • Operational: Current business models have to move beyond the manual process to steer the claim down the right path from start until liability determination. Standardized automation brings together fragmented, disparate information systematically across multiple platforms, essentially unifying communications between the attending physician and the insurance company. This well-managed infrastructure gathers, updates, and integrates relevant data throughout the life of the claim.
  • Availability: A critical way to improve the life waiver claim process is through accurate reporting. By breaking down the silos between the attending physician, case manager, and the insurance company, claim related information can immediately be uploaded and reported in real-time. Proactively enhancing the risk management process to enable companies to consistently receive updated claimant health evaluation and physical limitation reports, is critical for best determining return-to-work employment opportunities.

Three Technology Touch-Points in Waiver of Premium Operations

Front end: Assessment of the initial claim and determining the best possible duration time.

Mid-point: An open claim should be reassessed to determine continued eligibility and to evaluate the direction of the claim if lasting longer than projected-and why.

End-point: The evaluation process continues to ensure claims are being re-evaluated at regular intervals, examining the possibility of getting the claimant back to work.

Why Waiver Of Premium Matters
What's typically happening is that most company's life claim blocks are managed on the same platform and in the same manner as their life claims, so ultimately the life waiver block is improperly managed. Life companies need to recognize that a waiver of premium block is not a life block but a disability block, and needs to be managed differently. For example, older actuarial tables do not reflect the fact that people with disabilities are living longer, potentially leaving companies with under-stated reserve liabilities.

Ultimately, having a good handle on the life waiver block will prove beneficial for both the carrier and the insured.

Part 2 of this series will discuss specifically how the introduction of process and technology into this manual and asynchronous area can deliver substantial benefits to life carriers.

1 Social Security Administration, April 2013.

Tackling Underwriting Profitability Head On

For many years, insurance companies built their reserves by focusing on investment strategies. The recent financial crisis changed that: insurers became incentivized to shift their focus as yields became more unpredictable than ever. As insurance carriers looked to the future, they know that running a profitable underwriting operation is critical to their long term stability.

Profitable underwriting is easier said than done. Insurers already have highly competent teams of underwriters, so the big question becomes, “How do I make my underwriting operation as efficient and profitable as possible without creating massive disruptions with my current processes?”

There are three core challenges that are standing in the way:

  • Lack of Visibility: First, the approach most companies take to data makes it hard to see what's really going on in the market and within your own portfolio. Although you may be familiar with a specific segment of the market, do you really know how well your portfolio is performing against the industry, or how volume and profit tradeoffs are impacting your overall performance? Without the combination of the right data, risk models, and tools, you can’t monitor your portfolio or the market at large, and can't see pockets of pricing inadequacy and redundancy.
  • Current Pricing Approach: You know the agents that underwriters engage with every day want you to give them the right price for the right risk, and it's not easy. In fact, it's nearly impossible. Underwriters are often asked to make decisions based on limited industry data and a limited set of risk characteristics that may or may not be properly weighted. As an underwriter reviews submission after submission, you need to make decisions such as, “How much weight do I assign to each of these risk characteristics (severity, frequency, historical loss ratio, governing class, premium size, etc.)?” Imagine how hard it is to do the mental math on each policy and fully understand how the importance of the class code relates to the importance of the historical loss ratio or any other of the most important variables.
  • Inertia: When executives talk about how to solve these challenges around visibility and pricing, most admit they're concerned about how to overcome corporate inertia and institutional bias. The last thing you want to do is lead a large change initiative and end up alienating your agents, your analysts, and your underwriters. What if you could discover pockets of pricing inadequacy and redundancy currently unknown to you? What if you could free your underwriters to do what they do best? And what if you could start in the way that makes the most sense for your organization?

There's a strong and growing desire to take advantage of new sources of information and modern tools to help underwriters make risk selection and pricing decisions. The implementation of predictive analytics, in particular, is becoming a necessity for carriers to succeed in today's marketplace. According to a recent study by analyst firm Strategy Meets Action, over one-third of insurers are currently investing in predictive analytics and models to mitigate against the problems in the market and equip their underwriters with the necessary predictive tools to ensure accuracy and consistency in pricing and risk selection. Dowling & Partners recently published an in-depth study on predictive analytics and said, “Use of predictive modeling is still in many cases a competitive advantage for insurers that use it, but it is beginning to be a disadvantage for those that don't.” Predictive analytics uses statistical and analytical techniques to develop models that enable accurate predictions about future event outcomes. With the use of predictive analytics, underwriters gain visibility into their portfolio and a deeper understanding of their portfolio's risk quality. Plus, underwriters will get valuable context so they understand what is driving an individual predictive score.

Another crucial capability of predictive modeling is the mining of an abundance of data to identify trends, patterns and relationships. By allowing this technology to synthesize massive amounts of data into actionable information, underwriters can focus on what they do best: they can look at the management or safety program of an insured, anything they think is valuable. This is the artisan piece of underwriting. This is that critical human element that computers will never replace. As soon as executives see how seamless it can be for predictive analytics to be integrated into the underwriting process, the issue of overcoming corporate inertia is oftentimes solved.

Just as insurance leaders are exploring new methods to ensure profitability, underwriters are eager to adopt the analytical advancements that will solve the tough problems carriers are facing today. Expecting underwriters to take on today's challenges using yesterday's tools and yesterday's approach to pricing is no longer sustainable. Predictive analytics offers a better and faster method for underwriters to control their portfolio's performance, effectively managing risk and producing better results for an entire organization.

Predictive Analytics In Workers' Compensation Made Easy And Affordable

It's a safe bet that claims will not have a happy ending if the treating physician has a history of being associated with poor claim outcomes. In fact, physicians rated poorly in analytic studies based on past performance are 100% predictive of high costs and inferior outcomes in future claims where they are involved. The question is, how can those providers be identified so they can be avoided?

Applying Analytics
Whether the cause of poor performance is misunderstanding Workers' Compensation or deliberate fraud, the claim results will be dismal. Nevertheless, in order to analyze provider performance, one must know where to find the data, what to look for, and how to apply the knowledge gained from analysis to achieve improved results.

Data can offer a clear picture of actual provider performance. Evaluating physician and other provider performance is a matter of scrutinizing the data using industry research to learn what to look for. In fact, leveraging published industry research is the way to skip the laborious and expensive regression analyses and other predictive modeling methods.

Industry Research Reveals What To Look For
Exposing substandard providers is a matter of integrating and analyzing the data to understand the course of the claim and the providers who were involved. Selecting the data items to monitor can be guided in the first instance by industry research. Organizations such as the National Council on Compensation Insurance, the California Workers' Compensation Institute, and the Workers' Compensation Research Institute continually publish their research based on data they collect from members. These organizations offer research regarding medical issues causing cost escalation in the industry, and usually make results available from their individual websites.

Search
Academia and other organizations produce and publish research, as well. The best way to access other research is to use Google or other search engines to find research studies regarding specific issues and interest areas. For instance, if the concern is low back pain, simply use Google to find research and scholarly articles on the topic as it relates to Workers' Compensation.

Indicators Of Performance
When the indicators of performance are identified, they can be tagged in the data to analyze individual providers. Providers associated with a preponderance of negative indicators will fall into the lowest class category. On the other hand, those whose results are exemplary will rise to the top — best in class.

Where To Find The Data
Billing data tells the story of diagnoses, treatments and the billed amounts. However, billing data by itself is never broad enough in scope to evaluate providers because it tells only a part of the story. Claim adjudication level data tells another part of the story. It describes the actual paid amounts, return to work, the amount of indemnity paid, and whether legal was involved. But there is more.

Analyzing Pharmacy Benefit Management data is imperative. Overuse of prescribed narcotic pain relievers is now a major concern in Workers' Compensation medical management. Prescribing excessive opioids is unconscionable, but the guilty are often not identified and avoided as they could and should be.

Provider performance should be scored by claim outcome combined with costs and other factors. Unless the initial injury was catastrophic, return to work following a workplace injury is often a function of medical management that should be measured. Analyzing multiple data indicators from disparate data sources is powerful in describing physician performance. It is also objective and fair.

Integrating The Data For Analysis
Any one Workers' Compensation data source by itself is inadequate for the purpose of evaluating provider influence. Only the broad scope of data concerning a claim can provide a clear picture of the claim and provider culpability in outcome. Therefore, collecting the data from its various sources (billing or bill review, claim adjudication systems, and pharmacy data), then integrating current and historical data are crucial steps in provider performance analytics. The next steps are identifying, evaluating, and monitoring the data elements that are indicators of performance both from the medical and Workers' Compensation viewpoints using research as a guide.

Link Analytics To Operations
Analytics results of any variety that remain in graphic form, in a brochure, or pinned to a wall are useless in the effort of actually containing costs. The findings must be functionally applied to operations to make them actionable. Information regarding best (and worst) in class doctors identified through the methods discussed here must be made available to network managers and others in a usable form. Moreover, the information should be specific, current, dynamic, easily accessible, and contain objective supportive detail. The work of analytics is not complete until its results are operationalized and actionable.