Tag Archives: paul revere

The Revolution Is Coming! Be Ready

The world, the world of risk and risk in the world will be as different in 2020 as the original 13 colonies were from the U.S. as it is today.

The bad news is that Paul Revere won’t ride through your town alerting you.

So you'll have to settle for me — and I am, in fact, giving you enough warning to design your future, and not just manage toward it.

Understand: When one thing is different, it is change. When everything is different, it is chaos.

Change works for dinosaurs. Chaos doesn’t.

But chaos brings opportunity for those who are prepared, and, if you’ve survived in this industry for any length of time, you are able to adapt. Your only issue is one of willingness.

What follows are the 10 environmental factors that, in combination, are triggers of the coming Risk Revolution. These cultural changes are fissures in the foundation of the “good old days” and render vulnerable all traditional institutions and structures that have done so well for so long.

  1. Loss of innocence: When President Nixon said during the Watergate scandal, “I am not a crook,” he acknowledged the end of command and control. Raw power could no longer sustain the most powerful man in the world. As citizens, we confronted the “feet of clay” of our leaders. What Nixon did to weaken our trust in our political leaders, terrorists in airplanes on 9/11 did to our confidence. We won two world wars and are insulated and isolated from the “evil” out there by oceans on our coasts, but it is not enough. We have to accept we are vulnerable.
  2. Katrina was a “girl” but she was no lady: When Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast in 2005, it breached levees and created a Mad Max world that none were ready to face. Our institutions – federal, state and local government, the Red Cross, etc. – were supposedly built for catastrophes but failed us. Our confidence in our system of order was lost. We must rethink the world.
  3. “Hell no, we won’t go”:  war protests, burned bras, tie-dyed T-shirts, Elvis and the Beatles, hippies who protested everything except the right to protest. This was the marketplace speaking for the first time. Tomorrow, the market won't be quieted.
  4. ________ – Americans:  African-Americans, Asian-Americans, you-name-it-Americans. We're no longer a homogeneous nation. One size does not fit all. The change will accentuate the world of niches, affinity groups and “verticals” and so fragment the market that mass customization will be required, down to a niche of one. We want it “our way,” and not just in fast food.
  5. The front porch and the back fence are gone: Time and place now have little value, and “pace” is as fast as the buyer wants it to be. The question is: If Gen Y is known for a lack of empathy, how do you sell in a nonverbal world?
  6. Tennis balls and Patty Hearst: Sgt. Gill, an intelligence officer, told me in 1972 about satellites that could read the label on your tennis ball while you were playing. In 1973, Jim, another military intelligence guy discovered that, while his data mining model couldn’t help the FBI find Patty Hearst, he could find everyone in America who was just like her. In an era of satellites/drones/etc. and big data, what happens to privacy?
  7. Miss Hathaway: In the finance department of LSU, Joan always reminded me of Miss Hathaway from “The Beverly Hillbillies.” She told me decades ago, “Mike, this LexisNexis thing is going to be big.” She was talking about the Internet. She was right.
  8. From Ozzie and Harriet to Archie Bunker to the Huxtables to the Simpsons to the Modern Family and maybe to the Jetsons: The world keeps changing, and lots of people don't like that. They want to hold on to the past. Political correctness, shouts of racism and sexism, a bipolar political process, extremes, etc. all limit our willingness to hold hands and sing “Kumbaya.” We are changed forever, and so is our society and its most basic building block – the family. Deal with it.
  9. “If you have all your eggs in one basket, make sure it’s a strong basket.”: That line, from a Volvo ad, circa 1980, applies today because we are betting the economy and our world on technology . What happens if a natural disaster, a terrorist, an enemy or sun spots disables our technology for a week, a month, a year?
  10. Addictions: Addiction to the status quo is the worst. In this most serious form of dependency, we sacrifice everything to do nothing but protect our comfort zone. The insurance industry once owned the world of risk. Now we have done more than “let the camel’s nose under the tent.” We are now sleeping with the camel. When the market demanded innovation, we too often failed to provide it. Instead we gave up our responsibility and let government and others do what we didn’t want to do. Captives, alternative risk funding, HMOs, the ACA, self-insurance and the National Flood Insurance Program are all examples of decisions being made without us. That is the nature of markets. We were too slow, and something else filled the void. We still face two fundamental challenges: Our products are priced beyond the ability of many consumers to pay, and some embrace a “nanny state.”

The trends identified are not all right and they are not all wrong. They just are. What will 2020 bring your world? What will you do to prepare?

Remember the admonition from Peter Drucker, “Whom the gods wish to destroy, they send 40 years of prosperity.” The last decades have been good to us. The next decades can be, too, but only with the right amount of awareness, preparation, discipline and commitment.

George C. Scott, playing Gen. George Patton in the movie “Patton,” said: “In times of war, all other forms of human endeavor shrink to insignificance.” 

Are you ready, willing and able to fight and prevail in the coming Risk Revolution?

A Quiet ACA Waiver — and Needed Change

Massachusetts has been on the forefront of American history since the days of Paul Revere and the Boston Tea Party. It is also the state that inspired the Affordable Care Act, a.k.a. Obamacare, by its groundbreaking universal coverage law implemented under former Gov. Mitt Romney. What has received very little, if any, national media coverage is that the heavily Democratic-controlled state of Massachusetts quietly filed for and was granted a three-year waiver on how premiums are calculated under the ACA for small employers.

The waiver request was so quiet that the Boston Globe reported that Gov. Deval Patrick, a friend and supporter of the president, signed the legislation on the Friday afternoon before the July 4th weekend last year “in private when the statehouse was empty and the majority of voters were on vacation.”

One of the major negative consequences of Obamacare for small employers in Massachusetts and throughout the country is that the ACA destroys the entire concept of “experience rating.” Experience rating has been the cornerstone of how workers’ compensation insurance premiums are calculated since time immemorial. In simple terms, employers’ workers’ comp premiums are based on the type of industry in which they operate, the number and type of employees they have and their historical safety record. Employers with great safety records pay less for insurance, and employers with poor safety records pay more. This approach is not only fair but gives employers a strong financial incentive to provide a safe workplace.

After enactment of the Massachusetts universal coverage law, (which I am told was only 70 pages long, compared with the ACA's 2,000-plus pages and growing) employers’ health insurance premiums were 15% above the national average and the most expensive in the nation. Now, under the ACA, Massachusetts health insurance premiums are projected to go up 50% for the majority of small employers.

The basic issue is that the Massachusetts universal coverage law used nine rating factors to calculate premiums for small employers. These include discounts for using healthcare insurance purchasing cooperatives and for providing a safe workplace. Those nine factors are now preempted under the ACA and have been replaced by only four: age, family size, location and smoking habits.

The Chamber of Commerce and other small-business groups protested the changes vehemently. Gov. Patrick said he privately asked for a waiver and was told “no” by the president and the Department of Health and Human Services. Obviously, it would be a political embarrassment to the president if the place where his healthcare reform began, and one of the “bluest” states in the nation, publicly requested a waiver. However, the state legislature overwhelmingly voted to require the governor to do so.

Massachusetts was, in fact, granted a three-year waiver on the ACA's requirements on rating factors. The request for a permanent waiver was denied last September by Secretary Kathleen Sebelius at HHS.

Of course, “progressive” healthcare reform advocates opposed the waiver, stating that it would be “unfair” to other employers. How is it unfair that employers who promote wellness and a safe workplace are rewarded for their efforts with reduced premiums?

A study by the Pioneer Institute predicts that Massachusetts employers will now have to cut back on employment and the number of insured. Tell me, how is that “progressive”?

The Massachusetts Department of Insurance has reported that a study by the state’s health insurers predict that 60% of small employers will see a 50% or greater rate increase after the waiver expires in 2016, on top of the normal yearly increases.

The president, during his State of the Union address, challenged anyone to identify changes needed to the ACA. Maybe it’s time to dump the ACA premium rating factors in the Boston harbor like the British tea and restore full-blown experience rating for small employers in Massachusetts and in the rest of the nation.