Tag Archives: national hurricane center

How to Predict Atlantic Hurricanes

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was remarkable, including five landfalls of Category 5 storms in the Caribbean Basin and three Category 4 strikes on the U.S. coastline. The 2017 landfalls cost hundreds of lives and record-breaking economic losses, exceeding $250 billion. These losses are sober reminders of hurricane vulnerability and the importance of hurricane prediction for public safety and the management of insurance and other economic risks.

Hurricane forecasts have continued to improve in recent years, but they are not yet as good as they could be. Continued advances in weather and climate computer models used to make forecasts and improved observations from satellites and aircraft are driving these improvements. Also essential to progress are advances in understanding of weather and climate dynamics.

Short-term track and wind intensity forecasts

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) provides five-day forecasts of hurricane tracks and wind intensity that guide emergency management. Technological improvements from higher resolution weather forecast models and improved satellite observations are helping improve hurricane forecasts. The figure below shows the improvement over several decades in the NHC’s forecasted location of storms, referred to as “track error.” See figure 1 below.

An average track error at 48 hours of about 50 nautical miles is impressive in a meteorological context. However, a track uncertainty of just 50 nautical miles for Hurricane Irma’s predicted Florida landfall in 2017 meant the difference between a costly Miami landfall or a relatively benign Everglades landfall. As seen in the figure above, we are approaching a track forecast accuracy limit for one to two days, arising from the inherent unpredictability of weather. Over the past decade, the greatest improvements have been in the three- to five-day track forecasts.

A recent analysis conducted by Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) compared track errors from different global and regional weather forecast models, all of which are considered by the NHC in preparing its forecast. The European model, operated by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and supported by 22 European countries, consistently outperformed the U.S. models maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for track forecasts beyond two days. At five days lead time, the ECMWF model had an average track error for the 2017 season of 120 nautical miles, compared with 148 nm for the official NHC forecasts.

Innovators in the private sector apply proprietary algorithms to improve upon the NOAA and ECMWF model forecasts. At CFAN, ECMWF forecasts are corrected for model biases based on historical track errors. For 2017, CFAN’s bias-corrected storm tracks resulted in five-day average track error of 114 nautical miles – 26% lower than the average track error for the official NHC forecast.

Forecasts beyond five days (120 hours) are becoming increasingly important to the insurance community, especially with the development of insurance-linked securities and catastrophe bonds. The superior global weather forecasts provided by the European model (ECMWF) produced Atlantic hurricane tracks for 2017 with an average track error of 200 nautical miles out to eight days in advance. The proprietary track calibrations and synthetic tracks produced by CFAN from the European model maintain an average track error of 200 nautical miles even beyond 10 days, for the longest-lived storms.

Forecasting of storm wind intensity (as measured by maximum sustained wind speed) is also of key importance. The NHC’s intensity forecasts are slowly improving – the NHC’s intensity forecast errors at time horizons of two to five days average from 10 to 20 knots (10 knots = 11.5 mph) over the past several years. The greatest challenge in short-term hurricane forecasting remains the prediction of rapid intensification, as occurred with Hurricane Harvey in August 2017, immediately before landfall. The NHC has invested considerable resources in the development of high-resolution regional models to improve prediction of hurricane intensity. The prediction of rapid intensification remains elusive, although there is considerable research underway on this topic.

Seasonal and longer-term forecasts

Advances have been made in forecasting the probability of track locations on weekly timescales out to a month in advance. Monthly forecasts based on global weather forecast models are provided by several private sector weather forecast providers. Beyond the timescale of about a month, however, global models show little skill in predicting hurricanes. Hence, most seasonal forecasting efforts, particularly beyond timescales of six months, focus on data-driven statistical methods that examine longer-term trends in the global atmosphere.

Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and the tropical Pacific are key predictors for seasonal forecasts of Atlantic hurricane activity. El Niño (warmer tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures) and La Niña (cooler tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures) patterns have a strong influence, with La Niña being associated with higher levels of Atlantic hurricane activity.

Atmospheric circulation patterns also have some long-term “memory” that is useful for seasonal forecasts. CFAN’s research has identified additional predictors of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity through examination of global and regional interactions among circulations in the ocean and in the lower and upper atmosphere. The predictors are identified through data mining, interpreted in the context of climate dynamics analysis, and then subjected to statistical tests in historical forecasts.

See also: Hurricane Harvey’s Lesson for Insurtechs  

While forecasts issued around June 1 for the coming season generally have skill that is better than climatology, different outcomes are suggested by late May/early June forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Predictions range from low activity (CFAN and Tropical Storm Risk ) to average activity (Colorado State University ) to near or above normal activity (NOAA Climate Prediction Center ). While many of the late May/early June 2017 forecasts predicted an above-normal season, none of the publicly reported forecasts predicted the extreme activity that was observed during the 2017 season.

At the longer forecast horizons, forecast skill is increasingly diminished. The greatest challenge in making seasonal forecasts in April and earlier is the springtime “predictability barrier” for El Niño/La Niña, whereby random spring weather events in the tropical Pacific Ocean during spring can determine its longer seasonal evolution. Seasonal forecasts from the latest version of the European model show substantially improved forecast skill of El Niño and La Niña across the spring predictability barrier, which improves the prospects for seasonal hurricane forecasts issued in late March/early April. La Niña generally heralds an active hurricane season, whereas El Niño is generally associated with a weak hurricane season. However, the occurrence of El Niño or La Niña accounts for only about half of year-to-year variation in Atlantic hurricane activity. In particular, the extremely active years such as 2017, 2004 and 2005 were not characterized by much of a signal from La Niña.

The greatest challenge for seasonal predictions of hurricane activity is to forecast the possibility of an extremely active hurricane season such as observed during 2017, 2005, 2004 and 1995. CFAN’s seasonal forecast models capture the extremes in 1995 and 2017 but not 2004 and 2005. Improved understanding of the causes of the extreme activity during 2004 and 2005 is an active area of research.

The most important target of seasonal forecasts is the number of landfalling hurricanes and their likely locations. The number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes in one year has varied from zero to six since 1920. The number of landfalling hurricanes is only moderately correlated with overall seasonal activity. It is notable that the period of overall elevated hurricane activity from 1995 to 2014 overlapped with a historic 2006-2014 drought of major hurricane and Florida landfalls.

Several seasonal forecasters provide a prediction of landfalls. These forecasts may specify the number of U.S. and Caribbean landfalls, the probability of a U.S. landfall (tropical storm, hurricane, major hurricane). Few forecast providers attempt to predict location of the landfalls. New research conducted by CFAN scientists has uncovered strong relationships between U.S. landfall totals and spring atmospheric circulation over the Arctic, which tends to precede summer dynamic conditions in the western North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico.

Certain insurance contracts with hurricane exposure typically take effect Jan. 1 of each year, and for this reason there has been a desire for Atlantic hurricane forecasts to be issued in December for the following season. Such contracts often are written for a period of a year or even longer time horizons. Because of the apparent lack of hurricane predictability on this time scale, in December Colorado State University provides a qualitative forecast discussion, rather than a forecast. CFAN research has identified some sources of hurricane predictability on timescales from 12 to 48 months. Research is underway to exploit this predictability into skillful annual and inter-annual predictions of Atlantic hurricane activity.

Five- to 10-year outlooks

Some atmospheric modelers provide a five-year outlook of annual hurricane activity, focused on landfall frequency. A key element of such for such outlooks is the state of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO is an ocean circulation pattern and related Atlantic sea surface temperature that changes in 25- to 40-year periods with increased or suppressed hurricane activity.

The year 1995 marked the transition to the warm phase of the AMO, which has been an active period for Atlantic hurricanes. In the warm phase of the AMO, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are anomalously warm compared with the rest of the global tropics. These conditions produce weaker vertical wind shear and a stronger West African monsoon system that are conducive to increased hurricane activity in the North Atlantic.

There has been a great deal of uncertainty about the status of the AMO, complicated by the overall global warming trend. According to the AMO index produced by NOAA, the current positive (warm) AMO phase has not yet ended. In contrast, an alternative AMO definition, the standardized Klotzbach and Gray AMO Index, indicates the AMO has generally been in a negative (cooler) phase since 2014 – and May 2018 had the lowest value since 2015.

An intriguing development is underway in the Atlantic in 2018. The figure below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic for May. You see an arc of cold blue temperature anomalies extending from the equatorial Atlantic, up the coast of Africa and then in an east-west band just south of Greenland and Iceland. This pattern is referred to as the Atlantic ARC pattern. See figure 2 below.

A time series of sea surface temperature anomalies in the ARC region since 1880, depicted below, shows that temperature changes occur in sharp shifts occurring in 1902, 1926, 1971 and 1995. On the bottom graph, the ARC temperatures show a precipitous drop over the past few months. Is this just a cool anomaly, similar to 2002? Or does this portend a shift to cool phase of the AMO? See figure 3 below.

Figure 3. Top: ARC temperatures from 1880-2017. The black lines reflect the cold and warm regimes of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Bottom: ARC temperatures from 1982 through June 2017.

Based on past shifts, a forthcoming shift to the cool phase of the AMO is expected to have profound impacts:

  • diminished Atlantic hurricane activity
  • increased U.S. rainfall
  • decreased rainfall over India and the Sahel region of Africa
  • shift in north Atlantic fish stocks
  • acceleration of sea level rise on northeast U.S. coast.

The figures below depict how the AMO has a substantial impact on Atlantic hurricanes. The top figure shows the time series of the number of major hurricanes since 1920. The warm phases of the AMO are shaded in yellow. There are substantially higher numbers of major hurricanes during the periods shaded in yellow. A similar effect of the AMO is seen on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Seasonal ACE is a measure of the overall activity of a hurricane season that accounts for the number, strength and duration of all of tropical storms in the season. See figure 4 below.

These variations in Florida landfalls associated with changes in the AMO have had a substantial impact on development in Florida. The spate of hurricanes starting in 1926 killed the economic boom that started in 1920. Florida’s population and development accelerated in the 1970s, aided by a period of low hurricane activity. By contrast, the warm versus cool phase of the AMO has little impact on the frequency of U.S. landfalling hurricanes generally. However, the phase of the AMO has a substantial impact on Florida landfalls. During the previous cold phase, no season had more than one Florida landfall, while during the warm phase there have been multiple years with as many as three landfalls. A major hurricane striking Florida is more than twice as likely during the warm phase relative to the cool phase.

New developments in decadal scale prediction are combining global climate model simulations with statistical models. Such predictions have shown improved skill relative to climatological and persistence forecasts on the decadal time scale.

See also: Tornadoes: Can We Stop the Cycle?  

2018 Atlantic hurricane season

The recent tropic Pacific Ocean La Niña event is now over; the tropical Pacific is trending to neutral with an El Niño watch underway. Sea surface temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic are currently the lowest that have been seen since 1982. For the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, many forecasters who predicted a normal or active season previously are now lowering their forecasts, considering the trend toward El Niño and the cool temperatures observed in the tropical Atlantic.

Based on the overall expectations for low Atlantic hurricane activity in 2018, combined with forecasts of a U.S. landfall ranging from 50% to 100%, we can expect 2018 to be a year with smaller economic loss from landfalling hurricanes relative to the average.

Looking at longer time horizons, there is a potential game-changer in play – a possible shift to the cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation that would herald multiple decades of suppressed Atlantic hurricane activity that would have a substantial impact on reduced landfalls, particularly in Florida.

Lessons Learned From Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy is said to have been the most damaging hurricane recorded in U. S. history. There appears, however, to be some dispute as to whether Hurricane Katrina holds that dubious honor. The loss estimates and concerns are changing daily. The cost of the storm, estimated by private firms including PricewaterhouseCoopers and the PFM group, points to the fact that Hurricane Sandy destroyed or damaged more units of housing, affected more businesses and caused more customers to lose power. Here is the breakdown provided on November 26, 2012: http://www.governor.ny.gov/press/11262012-damageassessment.

  Sandy in New York ALONE Katrina & Rita in Louisiana
Housing units damaged or destroyed 305,000 214,700
Power Outages (peak) 2,190,000 800,000
Businesses Impacted 265,300 18,700
  • Number of deaths is more than 110 from Hurricane Sandy http://articles.latimes.com/2012/nov/03/nation/la-na-nn-hurricane-sandy-deaths-climb-20121103
  • The official death toll from Katrina was 1,723. http://robertlindsay.wordpress.com/2009/05/30/final-katrina-death-toll-at-4081/
  • 7.5 million power outages throughout Hurricane Sandy's two day assault on land
  • Moody's Analytics estimates the loss in the vicinity of the storm to be $50 billion, of which $30 billion will be directly from damage to property and the remaining $20 billion from economic activity, not all of which is going to come from an insurance policy.
  • 60% of the losses in economic activity, or about $12 billion, will come from the New York City metropolitan area.
  • Because of the storm's intensity and the breadth and scope of the damage, President Obama declared New York and New Jersey federal disaster zones without waiting for any damage estimates.
  • As of 12/3/2012, the Federal government has already issued $180 million in federal contracts related to Sandy.
  • The President has declared several areas as disaster areas, which means that federal funds will now be available to storm victims. (This is not limited to those without flood insurance.) This federal disaster assistance usually takes the form of low-interest loans to help home and business owners rebuild, which you can learn more about on the Disaster Loan page.

The statistics are staggering as are the losses (both covered and not covered) that are emerging from the storm. We will attempt to discuss some of the unique and troublesome issues that are arising from the storm.

Article Discussion Points:

  • Definition of “Storm” and its impact on insurance
  • Flood or NOT Flood?-that is the question (or the hope)
  • Personal Auto salvage concerns
  • The Lawyers are out to get you

Definition Of “Storm” And Its Impact On Insurance

A storm reaches tropical storm status by reaching sustained winds of 39 miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center creates annual lists of names from the database of names maintained and updated by the World Meteorological Organization. If a storm causes significant damage and /or loss of life, the name is retired from the list permanently. Thus, there will be no Katrina II or Sandy II.

1. What Does The Definition Of “Storm” Have To Do With Insurance? There May NOT Be Coverage On The DIC.
Thousands of businesses were affected by Sandy. Many times those larger clients have flood and wind coverage, but written on a large property or DIC (Difference in Conditions) policy.

In those policies there may be restrictions, sub-limits or different deductibles that apply to “Named Storms.” Those policies will define what that is, and should include flood, wind, wind gusts, storm surges, tornadoes, cyclones, hail or rain into this category once the storm has been declared by the National Weather Service to be a hurricane, typhoon, tropical cycle, tropical storm or tropical depression, thus bringing into focus the entire life cycle that a storm may go through.

We have found a number of articles written by law firms that are already taking on the issue of “named storm,” claiming that even though the National Weather Service had named the storm, it was not at hurricane strength when it reached landfall. A comprehensive definition of “named storms” would be helpful to clarify coverage. The fact that the meteorologists are discussing the attributes of this storm to be more like a winter storm rather than a tropical storm may end up on the chopping block of justice in a civil court or two and test the insurance policy coverages.

2. What Is Unique About Hurricane Sandy?

  • Sandy has defied normal storm behavior by moving east to west; it acted both like a hurricane and a cyclone simultaneously.
  • The result of this last odd wind pattern was the root cause of the flood tides and the inundation of the New York subway system.
  • The storm qualified as a hurricane at the time of landfall and its wave “destruction potential” reached a 5.8 on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 0 to 6 scale.

3. One Storm or Two Storms:
Bad memories of the World Trade Center came immediately to mind when I read about this potential concern relating to Hurricane Sandy in the Daily Report. You might remember there was a significant concern that a second storm, following the initial impact of Sandy, was going to hit which would have further devastated the area.

Richard Mackowsky, a member of the Cozen O'Connor's global insurance group, said “new damage from a second storm could result in a separate occurrence, potentially requiring a separate set of deductibles.”

“If there is damage caused by a second storm but related to the first storm, issues arise as to whether there were one or two occurrences. A second storm could impact causation as to what is really driving the loss. If the only reason the second storm caused damage was because of damage from Sandy, the question then becomes whether that is a covered cause of loss,” Mackowsky said. “A second storm could trigger a separate limit of liability if it's a big enough situation,” he said.

But even one storm can create causation questions. Was the damage from wind or flooding? Not a simple question to answer, litigation stemming from previous storms has shown.

Excerpted from the Daily Report

Saved by the bell on this one — the second storm never hit, but the insurance pundits were armed and ready.

Flood … Not Flood? — That Is The Question

This appears, at first glance, to be Insurance 101 — most of this damage was either directly or indirectly caused by the condition of flooding. That is sure what it looked like to me and that is not a very popular observation. Why? Because most people did not have flood insurance and if they did, the flood insurance policy has limited amounts of insurance and significant restrictions such as no business income coverage.

1. Dilemma Of The Federal Flood Insurance Program — It's A Problem:
Even if it is covered on the flood insurance policy, there is real concern about the overall program. See this article from Reuters for more information.

2. Flood Or Not Flood
Whether talking about homeowner's insurance (including renters and condominium owners) or commercial property insurance, those forms most often include an exclusion for flood. So, here is where it gets a little tricky:

  1. Did the property owner sustain damage from storm surge?
  2. Was the loss due to rising flood waters?
  3. Was the loss due to too much rain that entered into the building because the wind removed the roof, blew out the windows or knocked a part of the building down?

“It is an ongoing saga,” says insurance lawyer Frank Darras, who has worked extensively on litigation scenarios following Katrina. “If you are a homeowner, you are going to argue that you have damage caused by wind and wind-driven rain. If you are the carrier, you are going to say the damage was caused by flood, tidal surge or a hurricane, which requires hurricane coverage.”

Excerpted from The Street

In a unique twist, New York has a specific website that contains a regularly updated scorecard on insurance company performance. Here's the link. For example, State Farm has had 48,109 claims; 6,363 closed with payment; 5,229 closed without payment.

3. Problems With The Flood Insurance Solution
FEMA says that less than 15% of homeowners nationally carry flood coverage. Federally backed lenders have been lax in enforcing the obligation to purchase flood insurance (that may change due to higher penalties being imposed upon the banks as of July, 2012).

The National Flood Insurance Program anticipates claims between $6 and $12 billion but has borrowing power at $2.9 billion. Reauthorization from Congress would be required, and Homeland Security is expected to request appropriation soon. Those current and new policyholders of National Flood Insurance Program coverage will be getting a scheduled rate increase that predates Sandy.

Even if the person or business purchased flood coverage, there are still problems and concerns.

  1. The limits of insurance available through the National Flood Insurance Program are small.
  2. Replacement cost coverage applies only to a dwelling and not to commercial structures.
  3. There may be wind damage to the building that the flood insurer will not pay but is covered in the homeowner's policy.
  4. The insured will get to pay two deductibles for those two separate policies.
  5. What kind of coverage is there if the first layer of property coverage is the NFIP coverage and the insured purchases excess layers of flood coverage above that policy?

    1. Will it drop down to pick up the replacement cost difference? No.
    2. Will it drop down to pick up business income, extra expense coverage? It should. Check the policy language.

4. The Future Of Flood Insurance
The future of the entire program is bleak enough. Add to that the impact of Hurricane Sandy on the future purchase of flood insurance. Homeowners in storm-damaged coastal areas who had flood insurance, and many more who did not, still now may be required to carry flood insurance and will face premium increases for flood from an estimated 20 to 25 percent per year beginning January. This is due in part to legislation enacted in July to shore up the debt ridden National Flood Insurance Program and is exacerbated by Hurricane Sandy.

“Because private insurers rarely provide flood insurance, the program has been run by the federal government, which kept rates artificially low under pressure from the real estate industry and other groups. Flood insurance in higher-risk areas typically costs $1,100 to $3,000 a year, for coverage capped at $250,000; the contents of a home could be insured up to $100,000 for an additional $500 or so a year,” said Steve Harty, president of National Flood Services, a large claims-processing company.

Excerpted from The New York Times)

Lenders, in addition, will be affected by Hurricane Sandy if they fail to enforce the requirement for their lenders to carry flood insurance. They will face even higher penalties then they have in the past.

5. Ordinance Or Law

  1. Many of those properties damaged by Hurricane Sandy had been built a number of years ago. So here are the questions:

    1. Does the Homeowner's Policy, Commercial Property Policy or Difference in Conditions include contingent ordinance or law coverage, demolition coverage and increased cost of construction coverage?
    2. What about the loss of use for the homeowner as well as the business interruption coverage?
  2. The National Flood Insurance Program policy is out as there is no coverage for the indirect loss.
  3. Many Difference in Conditions policies do not include ordinance or law automatically and many more do not include ordinance or law — increased period of restoration to cover the additional down time due to code or law enforcement.

6. Power Loss
Earlier we quoted the statistic of there being approximately 7.5 million power outages throughout Hurricane Sandy's two day assault on land. Many of these outages lasted days and weeks. There are several issues relating to insurance in terms of the power outages:

  1. Requirement Of An Off Premises Endorsement: In order for businesses to have coverage for either direct or indirect losses relating to power outage, the insurance would first have “off premises” or “utility coverage” on the policy. Typically, losses stemming from off premises situations are excluded on property insurance policies.
  2. Causation Of The Power Outage: If there was coverage on the property policies for the off premise loss, the situation that occurred off premises would have to be covered. For example, if the off premises loss were caused by a windstorm, that cause of loss is typically covered on a Commercial Property Policy or personal form. If the loss were caused by flooding, then that cause of loss is excluded and the off premises endorsement would not apply.
  3. Off Premises Deductible: Off premises coverage oftentimes has a “time” deductible or waiting period of 72 hours unless endorsed. This waiting period would have eliminated coverage for many of the properties that had their power back in three days or less.
  4. Direct vs. Indirect Loss: An Off Premises Endorsement would have to cover both direct damage and indirect to pick up a loss for Business Income.
  5. Other Perils such as Equipment Breakdown (EB): The cause of off premises loss may be due to a power surge that results from the storming. If the Equipment Breakdown policy has off premises coverage and business income coverage, then recovery can be sought under that policy.
  6. Some Off Premises Policies Have Distance Limitations: It must be ascertained if there is any distance indication on the policy to which the off premises is being attached. For example, some policies have a 500-foot distance radius which means the source of the off premises loss must be within 500 feet of the insured's premise.
  7. Spoilage: It may be that the loss the insured sustained while the power was out was spoilage, such as loss to refrigerated items and the business income that stems from that loss. This could be covered on either an Equipment Breakdown Form depending on whether there was a “breakdown” or on a Commercial Property Spoilage Form. Some Homeowners have limited coverage built in for refrigeration loss but not for the peril of flood.

7. Business Income
Now we are talking about one of the bigger claims that will result from Hurricane Sandy and much of it will not be covered. Here are some of the pressure points of this coverage:

  1. Cause of Loss — back to that one. Flood is excluded on the Commercial Property form so there will be no response for business income.
  2. The Flood insurance policy does not cover business income.
  3. If the cause of loss is determined to be “windstorm” and the insured has Business Income insurance, then the policy should respond from the causation point of view assuming they had direct damage.
  4. The insured will have to prove that their income loss is directly attributable to Hurricane Sandy.
  5. The policy has a waiting period for coverage typically 72 hours unless endorsed.
  6. The policy would have to be endorsed with Off Premise coverage for the Business Income stemming from loss of power to apply.
  7. There is no building ordinance for the business income — it would have to be endorsed.
  8. Civil Authority: Many of the businesses did not sustain direct damage but were closed by civil authority.

    1. There is limited coverage on the Business Insurance form
    2. There may be distance limitations
  9. Ingress/Egress: A bigger problem is the ingress/egress issue which basically means “because of the condition, itself, access to an area is affected or unavailable.” For example, if a road is flooded out so that there is no access to a grocery store, the grocery store will be able to demonstrate they are losing customers. However, if the store was not directly affected by the physical loss, there will be no trigger on their business income form. Civil Authority did not close down the area — it was closed due to natural events in this case.

Traditional Business Income Policies require that there be direct damage to the premises by a peril insured against for there to be any business income insurance response. However, there is talk, in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, of what is referred to as Non-Damage Business Interruption or Non Physical Business Interruption Insurance. It is referred to as NDBI. While articles are referring to these coverages, as if they are readily available, I believe they are truly exceptional in availability and accessibility. Sometimes these forms are part of a “supply line coverage” for very large businesses that often have an international component. There is also the TDI or CDI coverage — Trade Disruption which could come into play — however, that coverage has a very limited market. Bottom line, the average business that sustained damage as a result of Hurricane Sandy had neither one of these types of coverage. Liberty International apparently has a program.

8. Automobile Losses From Hurricane Sandy
Autos are the easiest part of this equation: whether wind, flood or a combination, all are covered under the “Other Than Collision” coverage. The salvaging of these autos is where it gets interesting. Canadian officials are now bewailing the fact that thousands of autos — some estimates are as high as 250,000 — are likely making their way to Canada. Those storm-damaged vehicle are classified in Canada as “non-repairable” and are illegal to sell. But, in the aftermath of Katrina, Canadian citizens were buying these vehicles in the thousands, and they expect the same thing to happen again. What I wonder is, who is selling those vehicles? The original owner? The salvage company the insurer uses?

The Lawyers Are Out To Get You

Errors And Omissions Litigation
Well, as if all the foregoing isn't depressing enough, we cannot end this article without a little nudge to the insurance agent and broker.

If you are relying upon “conversations” with your client along the lines of “Do you want flood insurance? No. OK, then,” you are going to be sadly mistaken that your client is not going to enjoin you in litigation over your standard of care. Your client is going to claim an increased standard of care, yes including New York residents, and that you had a duty to advise and quote coverage for them or at the very least, tell them in writing of the limitations of coverage in the policies they purchased and that they relied upon you for your expertise. Many agents simply renew, year after year, their direct bill homeowner's and small business clients without any documentation of coverage offers. Even those handling larger accounts somehow rely upon the client's memory and good will not to sue you. So, again, for the millionth time already, please, please document your file, in writing, to the insured, with a rejection signature every year or, for larger accounts, an authorization to bind affirmation from the insured.

As we were all glued to the TV, watching reporters being blown around reporting the devastation, my insurance brain immediately went to “flood exclusions.” I saw the wind ravaging the houses, the uprooted trees blocking the roads, but also saw the rising waters in the streets, along the shores, in the housing areas.

The question will come down to that simple reality — was the damage due to flooding or not? The attorneys are out in force, fighting for first page on the Google search engine so you get to them first. It reminds me of an old Gun Smoke movie — ready, aim, fire. Barrels are being loaded against the insurance companies.

There is no easy way to end this article, although I am sure all of you who reached the very end are hopeful that I will. The storm was one of the biggest ever, and the insurance story will not end soon. There is so much more we could say but best end this with a heads up to watch and see how these claims unravel; and, for those of you who did not insure any of these damaged properties, I say a toast of champagne is in order.