There’s politics, then there’s governing. As former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo put it, “You campaign in poetry. You govern in prose.” Republicans have been campaigning against the Affordable Care Act since its enactment with rhetorical flourishes along the lines of “repeal and replace” and “end Obamacare on Day One.” That is poetry (or at least what passes for poetry in politics). Come January, Republicans will need to prove they can handle the prose part. As discussed in my previous post, that won’t be easy.
Repealing the law outright would cause chaos in the health insurance marketplace and take medical coverage away from millions of consumers. However, doing nothing would break a promise central to the GOP’s electoral successes in the past four congressional elections, not to mention the most recent presidential campaign. Either path could lead to voter retribution that would be devastating to the short- and long-term interests of the Republican party.
See also: What Caused the ACA Rate Surge?
A GOP strategy may be emerging that aims to avoid this rock and that hard place. The idea involves passing repeal legislation as close to President Trump’s first day in office as is legislatively possible, but delaying the effective date of that legislation by a year or two. This enables Republicans to keep their promise to repeal Obamacare “on day one,” yet gives them time for the more difficult task of working out a replacement to the ACA. It’s a political two-step that Joanne Kenen has dubbed “TBDCare.”
Yes, this would cast a dark cloud over the health insurance market for some considerable time and raises a host of questions: Is Congress capable of passing workable and meaningful healthcare reform? What happens if it doesn’t? What would those reforms look like? Who would the winners and losers be under Republican-style reform? Not knowing the answers to these questions is terrifying. For GOP leaders trying to avoid the wrath of voters, however, living under a frightening dark cloud for a couple of years might look better than ushering in the healthcare reform apocalypse.
The repeal part of this two-step strategy is simple: Republicans in Congress eviscerate the financial mechanisms critical to the ACA through the budget reconciliation process. This type of bill requires only 51 votes in the Senate, which means no Democratic support is needed. Meanwhile, President Trump dismantles other elements of the law by either revoking President Barack Obama’s executive orders or issuing new ones. Both the legislation and executive orders become effective at the end of either 2017 or 2018 to allow for a “smooth transition.”
Then the replace portion of the program would begin. Much of any new healthcare reform legislation would need to go through the normal legislative process and be completed before the effective date of the repeal. Given the Senate’s filibuster rules, this means securing at least eight Democratic votes in the upper chamber. (Here’s a list of the Democratic senators most likely to be recruited by Republicans).
Both Jennifer Haberkorn on Politico.com and Albert Hunt on Bloomberg.com do a great job in reporting on this evolving strategy. Meanwhile, opposition to TBDCare is already building, as evidenced by this editorial in the Denver Post.
What should not be overlooked in all this pain aversion is that the Affordable Care Act was neither the cause nor the solution to America’s deep-seated healthcare problems. Long before Sen. Obama became President Obama, everyone knew that the key to successful healthcare reform was reducing medical costs. A few provisions in the Affordable Care Act address costs, but the legislation focused primarily on health insurance reforms because, well, reforming the health insurance market is a lot easier than reducing healthcare costs. If you were a politician, who would you rather take on, insurance companies or doctors, hospitals and pharmacy companies?
See also: Obamacare: Where Do We Stand Today?
Whether using poetry or prose, then, it would be nice if, once they get past the politics of health care reform, Congress and the new administration addressed the substance of healthcare reform. Let’s hope that’s not asking too much.