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Implications of Our Aging Population

Aging is a key force shaping our societies and the economy. Too often, the current debate on aging and demographic change narrowly focuses on the direct implications for pensions system and healthcare and neglects the broader economic implications. An understanding of the wide ranging economic implications of demographic change, however, is fundamental for insurers and policymakers in order to make sound long-term decisions.

The world of shrinking workforces

The world is quickly entering a new phase of demographic development. The new world is characterized by a shrinking or – at best – stagnating workforce due to the continuous decline of birth rates since the “baby boomer generation.” While Germany’s working age population peaked about 15 years ago, according to UN figures, China is currently at a record. In the U.S., the working age population is expected to continue to grow due to immigration, albeit at a much slower pace than in the past.

But decreasing birth rates not only mean that that the workforce is shrinking (or at least not growing). It also means that the average age of the workforce is increasing, especially until the baby boomer generation will be retired within the next decade. We refer to this phenomenon as “silver workers.”

Furthermore, as people live longer, the proportion of retirees in the total population is going to increase. This increase will be far more pronounced in the future than it was in the past. In developing economies, this trend is starting at a much lower level, but the eventual change will be far more rapid and dramatic than in developed economies.

The economics of aging

These demographic developments – shrinking workforces, the rise of silver workers and increasing share of retirees – will have profound economic implications.

In a world of shrinking workforces, we cannot expect the economy to expand rapidly, unless productivity can be increased far beyond long-term historical averages. In fact, past growth rates were driven considerably by an increasing labor force. This is especially true for some developing economies like Brazil and Mexico. But also in the U.S., more than 40% of economic growth over the past 25 years can be attributed to an increasing working age population. We will have to get used to low GDP growth rates.

See also: The Great AI Race in Insurance Innovation  

However, overall GDP growth says little about the development of individual living standards. To assess living standards, we need to consider the implications of demographic change on GDP per capita.

Three forces are at play:

First, because fewer workers will have to provide for more retirees, demographic change depresses GDP per capita. In the U.S., the share of working age population to total population is expected to decline from 60% to 54% over the next 25 years. In China and Germany, the decline is more pronounced: from 67% to 57% in China and from 61% to 51% in Germany. This implies that, as long as the production of each person of working age does not change, per capita GDP would decrease by 9% in the U.S. and by 15% in China and Germany by 2040.

Second, future GDP per capita will depend on the development of investments and savings. As people will have to live longer on their savings in retirement, we expect saving rates to increase. As these savings are invested, there will be more machines per person (i.e. the capital stock will increase relative to the labor force). This will partly compensate for the negative impact of the labor force development on GDP per capita.

Finally, advances in productivity may entirely or partially offset the demographic pressure on GDP per capita. Projections of productivity growth are fraught with high uncertainty. However, based on historical productivity growth rates (about 1.5% per year in most developed countries), productivity growth will likely compensate for the negative demographic impact on GDP per capita in most countries (Italy being a potential exception).

Taking these three factors together, we conclude that GDP per capita will continue to grow in most countries, albeit at a slower pace than in the past.

The next question is: How will this per capita income be distributed among workers and retirees?

We expect that aging will depress real interest rates as the demand for capital is likely to shrink relative to savings. In fact, real interest rates have been steadily declining over the last three decades. We will have to get used to a low-interest environment and, hence, low returns on retirement savings.

At the same time, the relative scarceness of labor should bolster wages. Hence, the future workers will likely benefit relative to future retirees (who are today’s middle-aged savers).

A threefold challenge

This analysis suggests that there is a threefold funding challenge from aging.

First, low interest rates make it difficult for individuals to accumulate sufficient savings to fund their retirement.

Second, the increasing share of retirees in society exerts a rising funding pressure on public pay-as-you go pensions systems. While in the U.S. there are currently 25 people of retirement age per 100 of working age, it will be 40 people of retirement age in 25 years.

Third, the increasing average age of the workforce raises the risk of disability. Inability to work due to critical illness or disability reduces the ability of individuals to accumulate sufficient savings to fund retirement.

Policymakers have to consider a number of policy measures to address this threefold funding challenge. Potential measures include increasing the retirement age, providing incentives for individual savings, enhancing productivity, increasing labor force participation and increasing pensions contribution or reduce benefits.

See also: Demographics and P&C Insurance  

In most countries, however, none of these measures seems desirable or politically feasible on its own. In the U.S., for example, pension contributions would have to be increased by 63% between 2015 and 2040 to compensate for the increasing share of retirees in the population. Alternatively, the retirement age would have to be increased by seven years.

Policymakers therefore need to develop strategies that combine a broad range of different measures in varying degrees. There is a risk, though, that measures to enhance productivity, namely investments in education, will be de-prioritized as public finances come under increasing strain.

For insurers, this analysis suggests that they must adapt to a world of slow growth and low interest rates in the longer term. Furthermore, in a world of aging workforces, products designed to protect the income against disability and inability to work will become more important. Hence we expect to see a stronger shift from savings products to protection products.

How to Be Disruptive in Emerging Markets

Much has been discussed as to the coming disruption of the insurance industry in emerging markets. While I believe that it is happening, I also believe that, contrary to the common held view of many of my peers, building a disruptive insurance platform in emerging markets is going to be a marathon and not a sprint. I do not claim to have all of the answers. In fact, we are not even close to having most of the answers, but we have learned a few things along the way.

While many are quick to predict the demise of the traditional broker, I believe that the evolution of disruption within the insurance market will be one of natural selection. There are many highly profitable brokers in these markets that have a deep understanding of their customer, regulatory issues, market trends and simple common sense. Most are family-owned, with a new generation of family members anxious to take the helm. And while most of these brokers are not tech-savvy and certainly do not have regional or global aspirations, the ones of interest are forward-thinking and anxious to take on a new challenge as they clearly see how the winds of change are blowing.

I see these brokers as natural partners, and by acquiring key brokers in each market the aspiring disrupter will gain immediate market share, revenues, EBITDA, customer and databases, infrastructure (yes, customers still like to talk on the phone), licenses and management talent. With those beachheads in place, you will be able to take the next step, which is to apply technology to the existing base. This can start with the basics; consolidating databases, cross-selling, upselling, retention, dashboard analytics moving ever further up the food chain to digital marketing, big data and someday the mysterious artificial intelligence.

All of this creates short-term value, as you will see immediate increases in CAGR, EBITDA, retention rates and other key metrics, but that doesn’t change the perception of insurance for the consumer. In simple terms, these changes are not disruptive and at the end of the day are boring for customers.

See also: An Eruption in Disruptive InsurTech?  

So what will be the secret sauce? The carriers are an integral part of the ultimate disruption process, as they will work with the broker and consumer to develop the transformational products that the new consumer is going to require. This will be a key part of the challenge, as this will require a radically new approach to product development and, of course, dissemination. Products will include temporary auto insurance, school insurance for books, computers and other needs, home office insurance (do you know how many new consumers work out of their home) and unique vacation insurance. These products will drive real value for shareholders, while at the same time we are ultimately improving the lives of our customers.

I am convinced that one of the key secret ingredients for creating disruption within the emerging market insurance industry will revolve around product bundling and the great feeling you get when you believe that you just received a gift. It is also about being part of a contest and, yes, winning a prize.

By partnering with leading manufacturers of cosmetics, sporting goods, automotive, school supplies, and fashion apparel, the aspiring disrupter can bundle these products with the underlying insurance product that their customer is buying and enjoys buying. In the most basic form, when our customer buys travel insurance they will receive free sun care products. If they buy school insurance, they receive free school supplies. It is a win-win for the product supplier, the customer and the insurer.

If you think this is fluff, just ask the new consumers who are watching every penny in their budget.

But that is not enough, as we want a long-term relationship with our customer. So in addition to all of the above we are sponsoring online contests. To promote scholastic achievement and safe driving, we will soon have one for the zaniest insurance videos, i.e. my homework was actually eaten by an iguana or my car was crushed by an elephant. All of this is meant to build a very real bond with the consumer, improving their lives along the way.

The evolution of disruption in emerging markets has been interesting to observe, as the “the rage of the day” began more than two years ago with the aggregator model. Numerous well-funded ventures launched online insurance websites in Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Thailand and many other markets with a few common traits. The ventures were not disruptive, they had no existing customer base and they had no real strategy for interacting with the new consumer. The majority of these online insurance portals were “aggregators,” providing real-time or in some cases faster-time quotes from multiple insurance providers. The sites were often difficult to navigate and crowded and typically lacked originality. Soon, the novelty began to wear off as investors realized that “Build it and they will come” was not going to happen.

Disruption became the flavor of the day, but most investors and operators didn’t really grasp or even care what the term meant. The overriding concern was “getting traffic to the site,” and, while digital marketing strategies were developed and bandied about, the fallback position quickly became traditional media. In one case, the dominant online insurance broker in Brazil was told by its investors that it would not receive the next tranche of capital unless it dramatically increased spending on TV, print and radio advertising. Yes, the media of the past had become today’s agent for disruption.

While spending millions of dollars on traditional media for insurance is still a fact of life in many mature markets, it can hardly be called disruptive or for that matter even efficient.

The next phase of evolution came in the form of “digital marketing” and mobile apps. As smart phones typically outnumber the average population in most emerging market countries (in Brazil, there are an estimated 280 million smartphones for a population of 200 million people), the logic stands that this is the best way to reach the consumer. But dig a little deeper and ask yourself a very simple question: How important is insurance in your day-to-day life? For all of us who are selling, packaging or creating insurance products, insurance is the center of the universe, but for the average consumer insurance rates a two or a three on a scale of one to 10, if that.

See also: Pokémon Go Highlights Disruptive Technology 

While the “next wave” was unfolding, other issues became noticeable. Many of the “disrupters” were country-centric, with no real plan or strategy for regional or global expansion, which seemed odd. After all, if you are planning to disrupt insurance in Chile, wouldn’t you want to consider disrupting insurance globally, or at least in somewhat similar countries in Latin America?

Some products, such as auto insurance, were seen as commodities that were as sexy to the consumer as a trip to the dentist, so the market screamed like banshees for new products; pet insurance, travel insurance, smartphone insurance, hotel insurance, sport insurance, bike insurance….the list goes on.

We are increasingly living in an age of data overload, and we need to be very discerning as to the relationship we develop with the customer. We also need to be discerning about local markets. In China, online insurance companies popped up overnight, and many of them reached wild valuations by just selling a single product, like travel insurance. But, in Brazil, the market is much more mature, and travel insurance is about as new as samba.

With a robust online presence, massive investments in traditional media, digital marketing, mobile apps and new products, things were sure to get disruptive, right? Wrong, as consumers were still using traditional brokers, and insurance was still not on their top 10 list.

So what next? Could it be the vaunted but yet indefinable artificial intelligence?

Within the span of two short years, we have moved from science fiction to science fact. What if, through AI, we could predict when our customer would have their next child, next house, car, divorce, marriage and even death?

This would be real disruption, as we would be able to predict consumer behavior and in doing so create a “cradle to grave” lifecycle of products, sales, conversion and retention.

The problem, of course, is that AI is still in its infancy, as there are very few 2001 Space Odyssey HAL computers in the world today. Even if we had mastered this technology, there is still a larger question of how to use it and deploy it. This question will inevitably be answered, but for now we still face the fundamental challenge of taking a very boring product and transforming it into something consumers actually get excited about. We also need to ask ourselves how we would scale across multiple countries in a relatively short time.

That brings us to the end of our story, or, rather, the beginning. Disruption is coming to the insurance industry, and it will find fertile ground in the fast-growing emerging markets and the new consumer. The savvy insurance disrupter will gain massive amounts of data that will have value for a wide spectrum of partners.

What Can Derail an Important Event?

As Brazil copes with the Zika-virus outbreak, political turmoil, civil unrest, crime, water sanitation and the looming threat of terrorist attacks, thousands of athletes, fans and officials are making their final preparations for the Summer Olympics. While none of the crises look likely to derail the Rio 2016 Games, the list of concerns reads like the list of covered exposures in a well-designed cancellation of event insurance policy.

The International Olympic Committee is not alone in struggling to cope with the world of extreme events. Just look at some major sporting events that have recently been canceled, relocated or postponed:

  • National Football League (Buffalo)
  • English Premier League (Manchester United)
  • Major League Baseball (Pittsburgh and Miami)
  • Southeastern Conference Football (LSU and Tennessee)

If the list were to be expanded beyond sports, the number of concerts, events and conventions suffering the same fate is too large to compile. So, what should be considered when planning an important event, whether large or small?

Infectious diseases:

Zika is the latest of many infectious diseases to result in global travel advisories, the banning of large concentrations of people or implementation of public health control measures Communicable disease resulting in quarantine or restriction in people movement by a national or international body or agency is simply one exposure that concerned parties can eliminate through effective use of insurance solutions.

See also: How to Think About the Zika Virus

Extreme weather:

In today’s world of extreme weather events, once remote weather-related possibilities are becoming more and more frequent. Previously safe geographic areas have experienced hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires, snowstorms, hailstorms, etc., all of which can leave event planners madly scrambling to determine the extent of damage incurred and whether their carefully choreographed event can go on. Even if the adverse weather does not damage the venue(s) of the event itself, the mega-facility guidelines of the nation may require the requisition of the venue by emergency personnel or evacuees in the event of a hurricane, wildfire, dam-breaking or some other catastrophe.

Terrorism:

Despite recent World Health Organization warnings, foremost in the worries of most risk managers for large-scale events is the rise of terrorist actions worldwide. Protection against terrorist acts can be included in cancellation of event policies for an additional cost. Such coverage would typically exclude the use of nuclear, chemical or biological materials, or radioactive contamination post-Fukushima, but even these eventualities can be covered if a thorough market analysis is conducted. Many policies do not require that a terrorist event actually take place; they can be designed to protect an entity’s financial interest if the event is affected by the mere threat of terrorism, if the threat is confirmed by a recognized competent authority on the state, national or international level.

Key person coverage:

For events that rely on the attendance of certain personnel, performers or speakers, organizers can buy coverage specifically protecting against the non-appearance of key people.

Public sector strikes:

Public sector strikes, particularly those involving transportation services, and damage or loss of utility service to a venue also lead to many events being canceled, relocated, postponed or interrupted and are all insurable exposures.

Business interruption coverage:

Contingency insurance exists to provide protection for the expenses an entity occurs in organizing an event as well as the revenue the event should generate for the organizers, promoters, municipalities, etc. There is no “boiler-plate” solution for a specific event. It is essential that the event organizers and insurance representatives spend time evaluating the actual financial exposures the entity has. Expenses are normally the easiest to determine because they are fixed costs. However, many streams of revenue are often ignored if too much attention is given to the largest items, such as ticket sales, instead of supplementary income generated from merchandise sales, concessions, sales, lost sponsorship monies or even parking fees for attendees.

See also: The Defining Issue for Financial Markets

It is equally essential to determine who the financial responsibility ultimately rests with. Sponsorship contracts serve as a good example of complex obligations. If a corporation has agreed to spend millions to be the signature sponsor of an event, and the event is moved to a different venue where companies other than the sponsor already occupy desired signs and exposure, it should be determined if the expense is a sunk cost to the sponsor or if the hosting party has to reimburse the sponsor. This contract clause should dictate who receives the insurance policy benefit. Experience in determining financial exposure that each party incurs when events are in their initial planning stages is invaluable when custom-designing insurance policies to cover all possible financial liabilities.

It is only a matter of time before a global spectacle of an event is canceled due to an unforeseen peril. While the emotional loss experienced by the participants and attendees is high, the financial impact can be mitigated or completely eliminated through the insurance market.

Opportunities in Latin America

The Latin America insurance outlook for 2015 is generally favorable, with high-single-digit premium growth across the region presenting complex risks and opportunities. Although real economic growth has slowed recently in the largest markets of Brazil and Mexico, stronger economic growth and inflation in some areas continue to drive premiums. Long-term trends (reduced poverty, shrinking unemployment and a population increasing above the pace of most mature markets) are bolstering consumer demand for insurance products.

In general insurance, catastrophic risks from floods, hurricanes and earthquakes are driving premium growth in a number of Latin American countries. Premiums peak following major losses as demand increases and supply becomes more costly. In contrast, the underwriting cycle slowly reduces premium rates after benign catastrophe-loss periods, such as those experienced in the last few years. The development of efficient distribution systems to increase insurance market penetration and encourage product acceptance remains a critical challenge.

As economic, political and regulatory environments evolve inconsistently across the region, inflation risk continues to persist at varying levels. While Chile’s, Peru’s and Colombia’s annual inflation rates averaged 2% to 3% from 2009 through 2013, Argentina’s and Venezuela’s percentages were the highest in the region. Argentina’s battles with its creditors, and its governmental hand in business, have destabilized its currency. In contrast, Mexico’s government remains stable and is progressing with reforms to modernize insurance and other business sectors.

From a tax perspective:

  • Brazil imposes the highest income tax in the region, with insurer profits taxed at 40%. Popular products include health insurance and term life insurance, as well as auto and property covers, which are sold by independent brokers. Tax incentives for retirement accumulation plans are growing in popularity.
  • Mexico’s tax incentives, promoting retirement savings and a reasonable income tax structure, are contributing to growth. In a country where third-party auto liability coverage is mandatory in several cities, auto insurance generates the highest premiums.
  • The scenario is similar in Chile, where auto insurance is also compulsory and characterized by intense price competition. Provisional life and retirement products are part of the national social security system. Approximately half of all insurers are subsidiaries of international firms. Although an open market has led to stability and a competitive balance, insurers continue to adapt in the wake of earthquakes and other natural disasters.
  • In Argentina, independent agents and brokerage firms account for an estimated 75% of total premiums. The nationalization of private pension funds in 2008 changed the insurance industry structure, sharply reducing the size of the life and annuity market and the number of insurers in the country. Argentina imposes a high income tax burden, with profits taxed at 35% and a 10% dividend withholding tax.
  • Colombia, the fifth largest Latin American insurance market,
    is partially focused on investing in infrastructure to encourage demand for guaranty bonds. Automobile insurance, compulsory personal auto accident protection and reinsurance and earthquake insurance are the most important product lines. The industry aims to develop catastrophe insurance markets and enhance risk models, hoping that a stable commercial market will help deter government response to gaps in market coverage.
  • Peru has upgraded its economy in recent years to manage its rapid growth. Significant changes are being made in consumer protection, tax legislation and new regulation. Peru’s growth forecast is 6% this year, compared with predicted growth of 1.5% for Brazil and 1.1% for Mexico. Many foreign companies are considering Peru as a safe and desirable country for investment.

The Latin America insurance environment is becoming more similar to mature markets. Strong economic growth rates and regulatory reforms in the past decade(s) have attracted a number of global insurers, reinsurers and insurance brokers to the region. Mergers and acquisitions continue to help these global players build their positions. And cross-regional expansion efforts by Latin American-based insurers have increased their size and market reach, as well. These deals are enhancing insurers’ capabilities in product development and risk management. The implementation of new Solvency II insurance capital management regulations in 2015 is expected to result in a shift toward greater insurance industry consolidation and increased sophistication in risk management.

Low penetration rates in Latin America are caused by a number of factors and afford significant room for growth if economic expansion continues. Factors include:

  • Wealth disparity
  • Insufficient tax incentives for retirement products
  • Lack of knowledge among the general population about the value of insurance

Also contributing to potential opportunity is the changing perception of insurance as a necessity or investment, rather than a cost. This comes about with a change to the region’s income disparity, which in most countries is shrinking. Brazil is expecting double-digit declines in premiums across many low-hazard markets. In this heightened competitive environment, many insurers believe they can accelerate premium growth by targeting rapidly growing market clusters.

In comparison, Argentina is experiencing high inflation, tight regulation and a fluctuating economic market; nevertheless, insurance is a fast-growing industry that continues to show resilience in premiums and tolerance for expansion in a challenging environment. Argentina and Venezuela also have strict foreign-exchange control regimes. These generally do not allow residents to pay dividends or inter-company services/royalties outside of the country — in some cases, also limiting the deductibility of certain payments.

In general, it is worth discussing the value added tax (VAT) system in these countries,which is a key concern for insurers.TheVATpaid on the local purchase or importation of goods or services constitutes “input VAT” that typically should be credited against the “output VAT” generated on the taxable sale of goods or services. VAT should not be a cost of doing business. However, VAT is often an unexpected cost when entering a market. In the case of Latin American insurers with VAT taxable and non-taxable activities, the VAT calculation methodology is complex and usually generates some level of irrecoverable VAT.

Some products sold by insurance companies are exempt from VAT, meaning that any VAT incurred on the local purchase of goods or services becomes an irrecoverable cost for the insurance company (although deductible for local corporate income tax purposes). For example, the following are exempt:

  • Argentina’s life insurance and workers’ compensation policies
  • Mexico’s life and pension insurance
  • Certain insurance contracts in Chile, including those related to international trade, insurance of assets located outside of Chile and earthquake-related coverage

Brazil deserves a separate analysis because Brazilian insurance companies are subject to Social Integration Program (PIS) and Contribution for the Financing of Social Security (COFINS) taxes on gross revenues, at a combined rate of 4.65%. PIS/COFINS are not a VAT type of tax but, rather, they are paid on a cumulative basis: any PIS/COFINS paid by the local insurance company is not a recoverable cost. Brazil has a state VAT (ICMS) and a federal VAT (IPI), but these taxes do not apply to the sale of insurance products.

Property/casualty, auto insurance, professional liability, environmental and finance solutions are generally subject to VAT in Latin America, so any VAT paid should be fully recoverable for the local insurance company.

In addition to the VAT, some Latin American countries impose additional layers of indirect taxes that should be carefully reviewed by local insurers (e.g., gross revenue taxes, taxes on financial transactions, net worth taxes and stamp taxes, among others).

Insurance Risk in Latin America

Latin America’s compound growth remains attractive and yet, overall, insurance penetration rates still remain low in many countries. Particularly in life insurance, despite continuing economic growth and reduced poverty levels, penetration is low, suggesting there is still significant growth ahead for the insurance sector. We have seen significant reforms across the region from both a fiscal and regulatory standpoint, in everything from capital and exchange controls to consumer protection. We believe a key challenge for insurers over the next decade is navigating this rapid acceleration toward modern regulatory and operational realities.

Around the world, regulators are setting the expectation that insurers will raise their game. The trend is clear, toward better risk management, better governance, more precise measurement of capital in a risk sensitive way and more detailed and transparent reporting to regulators.

We presented our first report for Latin America in 2012, focusing on risk-based capital (RBC) and emerging regulations in four markets: Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. We have expanded our coverage and also added Colombia, Peru and Uruguay to our new overview.

In the past two years, each Latin American market has faced a different journey to a risk- and economic value-based solvency framework. More open markets in the Pacific Alliance (Chile and Mexico) have enhanced their risk management processes, while Brazil is seeking Solvency II equivalence by 2016. Mexico’s new law, modeled on Solvency II, is likely to be implemented ahead
of the rest of the world. Peru and Uruguay have no immediate plans to pursue a Solvency II approach. Although both countries are attracting foreign investment, the market size and number of players are impeding regulation. With Argentina’s high inflation and economic concerns, adopting an RBC framework in the short term is unlikely.

The challenge to understanding Latin America remains that most insurers in the region are not well-prepared for the expected changes in governance, risk management, capital requirements and reporting. At EY, we believe that effective risk management and the ability to quantify and price risks accurately are a core competence for a successful insurance company. We also observe globally that the leading insurers will typically look to define their own vision for their capabilities in these key areas, rather than simply following the iteration of each piece of regulation. Leading firms will also typically go on to deploy these capabilities more quickly and effectively across their businesses at the point of decision making, and being ahead of competitors in this way is a source of clear commercial advantage.

Argentina

The Argentine insurance market has made minimal progress in its approach to RBC in recent years. As other Latin American countries take steps toward Solvency II equivalence, Argentina is only superficially addressing this issue. In a country experiencing high inflation, tight regulation and fluctuating economic market concerns, RBC is only one in a long list of initiatives on the regulatory agenda of the Superintendencia de Seguros de la Nación (SSN).

Nevertheless, insurance is a fast-growing industry that continues to show resilience in premiums and tolerance for expansion in a challenging environment. Annual growth percentages are measured in Argentine pesos, so the inflation rate has a significant impact on those figures. As of 30 June 2013 (last fiscal year-end), there were 184 companies (108 in property/casualty) writing insurance in Argentina – with 29 new companies added in the past two years. International players continue to make acquisitions to enhance their positions in the industry. Growth has been most prominent in workers’ compensation and motor insurance, producing increases of 42% and 35%, respectively, from June 2012 to June 2013.

Brazil

The Brazilian insurance market continues to achieve double-digit growth. The industry is witnessing a series of mergers and acquisitions and the arrival of multinational insurance and reinsurance companies, mostly from Europe. In addition, the sector experienced the largest initial public offering in the world last year, when BB Seguridade raised approximately US$5.75 billion in the BOVESPA stock exchange.

Although national bancassurance players dominate the Brazilian insurance market, international insurance companies continue to grow at a higher rate through M&A and strategic alliances.

Given the continuous growth in the market, the Brazilian regulator, Superintendência de Seguros Privados (SUSEP), is working with the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) to achieve Solvency ll equivalence in Brazil. This will facilitate the investment of European insurance companies in Brazil and Brazilian companies in Europe. SUSEP will sign an agreement that will adopt Solvency ll rules partially or fully by 2016, based on a comparative study that EIOPA will perform to measure Brazilian regulation against the Solvency II regime.

Chile

The insurance market in Chile continues to shift from its present regulatory framework to a more sophisticated RBC approach to solvency assessment that better reflects current industry risks. New methodology proposed by the Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros (SVS) is an important step toward building an integral and holistic RBC model.

The Comframe capital framework implementation requires each risk category to be managed individually, with most supervision on a product-by-product basis. Most insurers will need to improve their risk function or implement a holistic approach to risk management. Also, local skilled resources are scarce for the level of technical knowledge imposed by this regulation. Many will need to develop better data analytics, systems and precise risk measurement if they are to increase capital efficiency and profitability.

Chile is one of the more stable markets in the region, primarily because of tight controls over insurance products and asset portfolios. This stability is essential in a market that offers rich growth potential. While the ease of doing business in the country presents an opportunity, product expansion remains an emerging challenge due to a lack of insurance product awareness and consumer perceived value.

Colombia

Colombia enjoys strong economic growth and enormous potential for financial stability over the next three to five years. GDP growth is about 4% a year, ahead of the average for the region. This is driven by stronger activity from foreign investors, a stable macroeconomic environment and a growing middle class. The free trade agreements that Colombia has engineered with major world markets are one example of the tremendous potential the country offers.

Insurance regulation is moving toward a more risk- and economic value-based solvency framework, with tightened capital market regulations. As a result, Colombia is ahead of many global rapid growth markets in reforming regulatory processes, protecting investor rights and cross-border trading to increase the ease of doing business for small companies.

Recent rules that allow foreign insurance companies to establish branches and operate as local insurers have changed the complexion of the Colombian market. Global industry players are entering, buying local insurers or considering start-up companies. This should encourage increased capacity, product diversification and greater competition. Colombia’s premium growth was US$8b in 2013, and rate reductions of as much as 10% were expected for property and life/accident insurance in 2014.

Mexico

The Mexican insurance market is the second largest in Latin America. As of December 2013, gross premiums totaled $334.19 billion Mexican pesos or approximately US$25.6 billion, an increase of 11% over the prior year; this increase includes the effect of a large biannual policy of the government. Despite having one of the lowest proportions of insurance penetration in the region (almost 2% of GDP), Mexico continues to grow above the country’s nominal GDP. New insurance laws and Solvency II regulations are leading to market consolidation, as well as growth in specialty and consumer product lines. The high demand for life insurance is reflected in individual life premiums, which rose 23% in 2013, following a 19% increase in 2012, basically for the success of some savings products.

The regulatory framework in Mexico is evolving toward a more sophisticated risk-based capital approach. A proposed Solvency ll – type insurance law has been under review by the Mexican regulator, Comision Nacional de Seguros y Fianzas (CNSF) and the Mexican association of insurance companies, Asociacion Mexicana de Instituciones de Seguros (AMIS) since the second half of 2008.
The Mexican Congress approved the new regulation in April 2013. Quantitative impact studies and qualitative impact studies are moving forward, and new accounting principles are under discussion. Legislation in the country continues to advance and is likely to be implemented ahead of the rest of the region.

Peru

Peru’s steady economic growth and expanding middle class are attracting new business and opening doors for insurance companies. The Peruvian economy is supported by rapid growth in investment, low inflation, strong economic fundamentals and an annual GDP growth rate of nearly 6%. The country has an investment rating in Latin America that is second only to Chile and offers a favorable legal framework for foreign investors. The financial sector, including insurance, is second only to mining (gold, zinc and copper) in direct foreign investment.

In the last decade, insurance industry sales in Peru have grown more than 200%, from PEN2,700 million (approximately US$776 million) to PEN9.069 million (approximately US$3.36 billion) in 2013. As of December 2013, 40% of total net premiums were from general insurance, 14% from accident and health, 21% from life insurance and 25% from the private pension fund system. It is important to note that only approximately 16% of the urban population has private insurance and 18% has health insurance – and this number has stagnated over the past five years.

The insurance market is highly concentrated in Peru, with 2 of the 15 insurance companies accounting for 60% of total gross written premiums. Overall, insurance penetration rates remain low, as they are in many other Latin American countries.

Uruguay 

Uruguay is a small country with stable economic growth, expanding tourism and rising disposable income. It was one of the few countries in Latin America that was able to avoid recession in 2008, and it continues to grow, with an economy based largely on exports of commodities like milk, beef, rice and wool. Some of world’s largest banks and financial institutions maintain branches there, and it was fortunate not to experience the impact of the global financial crisis or ensuing government intervention.

Although the Uruguayan insurance market is highly competitive, it has no more than 15 companies competing for market share. The largest in the country is Banco de Seguros del Estado (BSE), a government-owned insurer with about 65% of the market share as of December 2013.

Gross written premiums for the insurance industry totaled UYU21.6 billion (US$1.1 billion) in 2012, with a CAGR growth rate of almost 19%. Motor insurance and general liability insurance were leaders in the non-life segment. An increase in demand for pension products contributed to the significant growth in the life segment.

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