Tag Archives: blockbuster

How to Move to the Post-Digital Age?

We are in the midst of the shift from the information age to the digital age, which is realigning fundamental elements of business that require major adjustments to thrive, let alone survive.

As we noted in our new report, Greenfields, Startups and InsurTech: Accelerating Digital Age Business Modelsnew greenfield and startup competitors are rising from within and outside of every industry, including insurance, to capture the post-digital age business opportunities of the next generation of buyers. By shifting to meet the forces of change, these companies are positioning themselves to be the market leaders in the post-digital age. Those that do not make the shift risk not only the loss of customers but also market share and relevance in the coming new age of insurance.

See also: 6 Charts on Startups, Greenfields, Incubators  

Sometimes, the next big thing isn’t easy to spot. The disruption of the insurance industry is in the early days, so predictions are difficult. Will the new greenfields and startups become the next market leaders? If history is a guide, the answer is yes … some will. Just consider Progressive and how many dismissed it early on. Now it is a top 10 insurer in the U.S. Or consider what has happened in other industries with companies that are defunct because they missed the shift:

  • Streaming video: Blockbuster failed to see this trend. It filed for bankruptcy in 2010 and Netflix is now worth more than $61 billion.
  • Mobile games: In 2011, the president of Nintendo North America suggested that mobile game apps were disposable from a consumer perspective. Today, Pokemon Go has 65 million users. Is that disposable?
  • Apple iPhone: Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer reportedly commented that the first Apple iPhone would not appeal to business customers because it did not have a keyboard and would not be a good email machine. Apple iPhone single-handedly disrupted and redefined multiple industries and continues to do so.
  • Autonomous vehicles: In 2015, Jaguar’s head of R&D stated that autonomous vehicles didn’t consider customers’ cargo. Since then, Jaguar Land Rover has invested $25 million in Lyft to join the autonomous trend.
  • On-premise enterprise software vs. cloud-based SaaS platforms: In 2003, Thomas Siebel of Siebel Systems said Microsoft would roll over Salesforce in the CRM market. In 2005, Oracle acquired Siebel Systems for $5.85 billion. Salesforce’s market cap, in contrast, is more than $60 billion.

Insurance Industry Change and Disruption

At no time in the history of insurance can we find as many game-changing events and a rapid pace of advancement occurring at the same time. At the forefront is the increased momentum for insurtech, and the greenfields and startups within, creating high levels of activity, excitement and concern on the promise and potential of insurance disruption and reinvention.

When you add it all up, the insurance industry has many characteristics that make it an attractive target for aggressive investments in innovation. First, its size is enormous – based on industry data, it is estimated that premiums written are more than $4.7 trillion globally. Second, it faces multiple challenges that offer opportunities for exploitation by nimble, efficient and innovative competitors.

Insurtech advancements and the forces of change see no significant slowdown. The momentum for change that has been building is unstoppable. Industry advancements, cultural trends and IT reactions are gaining speed as they gain strength and a framework for stability and growth. It is pushing a sometimes slow-to-adapt industry by challenging the traditional business assumptions, operations, processes and products, highlighting two distinctively different business models: 1) a pre-digital age model of the past 50-plus years based on the business assumptions, products, processes and channels of the Silent and Baby Boomer generations and 2) a post-digital age model focused on the next generation including the Millennials and Gen Z, as well as many in Gen X.

Greenfields and Startups Make the Boardroom Agenda

The market landscape is rapidly changing. During 2016, Lemonade launched. Metromile decided to become a full-stack insurer, leaving its MGA days behind. New MGAs entered the picture, including Slice, TROV, Quilt, Hippo and Figo Pet Insurance, to name a few.  Existing insurers made market debuts with new startups including Shelter’s Say Insurance with auto insurance for millennials, biBerk from Berkshire Hathaway for direct small commercial lines and Sonnet Insurance as the digital brand from Economical Insurance in Canada, among others.

Add to this the projected shrinking of insurable risk pools due to the emergence of autonomous vehicles, connected homes and wearables and the domino effect of these on other industries, and it’s not hard to imagine a future with traditional carriers fighting over a much smaller pool of customers where only the most efficient, effective and innovative will survive.

As a result, discussion surrounding greenfields, startups and insurtech moved into the board room of every insurer and reinsurer trying to understand how to leverage the shift to the digital age and develop strategies and plans to respond. Yet some insurers have a blind spot in recognizing the competition both from outside and within the industry, and the critical need to begin planning a new post-digital age business model. The result is a growing gap between knowing, planning and doing among leaders and fast followers or laggards, which is rapidly becoming insurmountable due to the pace of change.

Closing the Gap with Greenfield and Startup Business Models

Assuming that most insurers grasp the need for a greenfield and startup mentality to grow, what remains is to aim all efforts toward accomplishing an organizational shift. How do you move your company from the pre-digital age to the post-digital age and close the gap?

It requires leadership to build consensus. It requires vision to aim in the most market-ready direction. And it requires a new business paradigm that will allow for change. We must redefine and re-envision insurance to enable growth and remain competitive.

While many have made progress in replacing legacy systems and traditional business processes, this is not enough. These systems, while modern, were built around pre-digital age business assumptions and models, not to support the range of needs in a post-digital age model driven by a new generation of customers. Like other industries, today’s insurance startups and greenfields need and want options that do not require investment in significant infrastructure or upfront costs and therefore seek a cloud business platform solution to maximize options and minimize costs and capital outlay.

See also: How to Plant in the Greenfields  

A modern cloud business platform provides an advantage for greenfields and startups, breaking down traditional boundaries, IT constraints and age-old business assumptions about doing business, while building up the ability to rapidly develop and launch new products and services. The platform is a robust set of technology, mobile, digital, data and core capabilities in the cloud with an ecosystem of innovative partners (many insurtech technology startups) that provides the ability to launch and grow a business rapidly and cost effectively.

Will established insurers suffer at the hands of tech-savvy, culture-savvy competition? Some may, but only if they allow themselves to. There will be constant pressure from greenfields and startups to outdo each other in the race to better meet the needs and demands of a new generation of buyers in a post-digital age for insurance.

For traditional insurance companies, the need to re-invent and transform the business is no longer a matter of if, but of when.  Insurance leaders should ask themselves: Do we have a strategy that considers transformation of both the legacy business and creation of a new business for the future? Who are our future customers and what will they demand? Who are our emerging new competitors? Where are we focusing our resources…on the business or on the infrastructure?

A new generation of insurance buyers with new needs and expectations creates both a challenge and an opportunity that a greenfield and startup business model can capitalize on to incubate, launch and grow. The time for plans, preparation and execution is now — recognizing that the gap is widening and the timeframe to respond is closing.

New Era of Commercial Insurance

Despite a generally soft market for traditional P&C products, the fact that so many industries and the businesses within them are being reshaped by technology is creating opportunities (and more challenges). Consider insurers with personal and commercial auto. Pundits are predicting a rapid decline in personal auto premiums and questioning the viability of both personal and commercial auto due to the emergence of autonomous technologies and driverless vehicles, as well as the increasing use of alternative options (ride-sharing, public transportation, etc.).

Finding alternative growth strategies is “top of mind” for CEOs.  Opportunities can be captured from the change within commercial and specialty insurance. New risks, new markets, new customers and the demand for new products and services may fill the gaps for those who are prepared.

Our new research, A New Age of Insurance: Growth Opportunities for Commercial and Specialty Insurance at a Time of Market Disruption, highlights how changing trends in demographics, customer behaviors, technology, data and market boundaries are creating a dramatic shift from traditional commercial and specialty products to the new, post-digital age products redefining the market of the future.

See also: Insurtechs Are Pushing for Transparency

Growth Opportunities

New technologies, demographics, behaviors and more will fuel the growth of new businesses and industries over the next 10 years. Commercial and specialty insurance provides a critical role to these businesses and the economy — protecting them from failure by assuming the risks inherent in their transformation.

Industry statistics for the “traditional” commercial marketplace don’t yet reflect the potential growth from these new markets. The Insurance Information Institute expects overall personal and commercial exposures to increase between 4% and 4.5% in 2017 but cautioned that continued soft rates in commercial lines could cause overall P&C premium growth to lag behind economic growth.

But a diverse group of customers will increasingly create narrow segments that will demand niche, personalized products and services. Many do not fit neatly within pre-defined categories of risk and products for insur­ance, creating opportunities for new products and services.

Small and medium businesses are at the forefront of this change and at the center of business creation, business transformation and growth in the economy.

  • By 2020, more than 60% of small businesses in the U.S. will be owned by millennials and Gen Xers — two groups that prefer to do as much as possible digitally. Furthermore, their views, behaviors and expectations are different than those of previous generations and will be influenced by their personal digital experiences.
  • The sharing/gig/on-demand economy is an example of the significant digitally enabled changes in people’s behaviors and expectations that are redefining the nature of work, business models and risk profiles.
  • The rapid emergence of technologies and the explosion of data are combining to create a magnified impact. Technology and data are making it easier and more profitable to reach, underwrite and service commercial and specialty market segments. In particular, insurers can narrow and specialize various segments into new niches. In addition, the combination of technology and data is disrupting other industries, changing existing business models and creating businesses and risks that need new types of insurance.
  • New products can be deployed on demand, and industry boundaries are blurring. Traditional insurance or new forms of insurance may be embedded in the purchase of products and services.

Insurtech is re-shaping this new digital world and disrupting the traditional insurance value chain for commercial and specialty insurance, leading to specialty protection for a new era of business. Consider insurtech startups like Embroker, Next Insurance, Ask Kodiak, CoverWallet, Splice and others. Not being left behind, traditional insurers are creating innovative business models for commercial and specialty insurance, like Berkshire Hathaway with biBERK for direct to small business owners; Hiscox, which offers small business insurance (SBI) products directly from its website; or American Family, which invested in AssureStart, now part of Homesite, a direct writer of SBI.

The Domino Effect

We all likely played with dominoes in our childhood, setting them up in a row and seeing how we could orchestrate a chain reaction. Now, as adults, we are seeing and playing with dominoes at a much higher level. Every business has been or likely will be affected by a domino effect.

What is different in today’s business era, as opposed to even a decade ago, is that disruption in one industry has a much broader ripple effect that disrupts the risk landscape of multiple other industries and creates additional risks. We are compelled to watch the chains created from inside and outside of insurance. Recognizing that this domino effect occurs is critical to developing appropriate new product plans that align to these shifts.

Just consider the following disrupted industries and then think about the disrupters and their casualties: taxis and ridesharing (Lyft, Uber), movie rentals (Blockbuster) and streaming video (NetFlix), traditional retail (Sears and Macy’s) and online retail, enterprise systems (Siebel, Oracle) and cloud platforms (Salesforce and Workday), and book stores (Borders) and Amazon. Consider the continuing impact of Amazon, with the announcement about acquiring Whole Foods and the significant drop in stock prices for traditional grocers. Many analysts noted that this is a game changer with massive innovative opportunities.

The transportation industry is at the front end of a massive domino-toppling event. A report from RethinkX, The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil Industries, says that by 2030 (within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs)), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model called “transportation-as-a-service” (TaaS). The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the automotive industry, but also many other industries, including public transportation, oil, auto repair shops and gas stations. The result is that not just one industry could be disrupted … many could be affected by just one domino … autonomous vehicles. Auto insurance is in this chain of disruption.

See also: Leveraging AI in Commercial Insurance  

And commercial insurance, because it is used by all businesses to provide risk protection, is also in the chain of all those businesses affected – a decline in number of businesses, decline in risk products needed and decline in revenue. The domino effect will decimate traditional business, product and revenue models, while creating growth opportunities for those bold enough to begin preparing for it today with different risk products.

Transformation + Creativity = Opportunity

Opportunity in insurance starts with transformation. New technologies will be enablers on the path to innovative ideas. As the new age of insurance unfolds, insurers must recommit to their business transformation journey and avoid falling into an operational trap or resorting to traditional thinking. In this changing insurance market, new competitors don’t play by the rules of the past. Insurers need to be a part of rewriting the rules for the future, because there is less risk when you write the new rules. One of those rules is diversification. Diversification is about building new products, exploring new markets and taking new risks. The cost of ignoring this can be brutal. Insurers that can see the change and opportunity for commercial and specialty lines will set themselves apart from those that do not.

For a greater in-depth look at the implications of commercial insurance shifts, be sure to downloadA New Age of Insurance: Growth Opportunities for Commercial and Specialty Insurance at a Time of Market Disruption.

The Big Lesson From Amazon-Whole Foods

I doubt that Google and Microsoft ever worried about the prospect that a book retailer, Amazon, would come to lead one of their highest-growth markets: cloud services. And I doubt that Apple ever feared that Amazon’s Alexa would eat Apple’s Siri for lunch.

For that matter, the taxi industry couldn’t have imagined that a Silicon Valley startup would be its greatest threat, and AT&T and Verizon surely didn’t imagine that a social media company, Facebook, could become a dominant player in mobile telecommunications.

But this is the new nature of disruption: Disruptive competition comes out of nowhere. The incumbents aren’t ready for this and, as a result, the vast majority of today’s leading companies will likely become what toast—in a decade or less.

Note the march of Amazon. First it was bookstores, publishing and distribution, then cleaning supplies, electronics and assorted home goods. Now, Amazon is set to dominate all forms of retail as well as cloud services, electronic gadgetry and small-business lending. And the proposed acquisition of Whole Foods sees Amazon literally breaking the barriers between the digital and physical realms.

See also: Huge Opportunity in Today’s Uncertainty  

This is the type of disruption we will see in almost every industry over the next decade, as technologies advance and converge and turn the incumbents into toast. We have experienced the advances in our computing devices, with smartphones having greater computing power than yesterday’s supercomputers. Now, every technology with a computing base is advancing on an exponential curve—including sensors, artificial intelligence, robotics, synthetic biology and 3-D printing. And when technologies converge, they allow industries to encroach on one another.

Uber became a threat to the transportation industry by taking advantage of the advances in smartphones, GPS sensors and networks. Airbnb did the same to hotels by using these advancing technologies to connect people with lodging. Netflix’s ability to use internet connections put Blockbuster out of business. Facebook’s  WhatsApp and Microsoft’s Skype helped decimate the costs of texting and roaming, causing an estimated $386 billion loss to telecommunications companies from 2012 to 2018.

Similarly, having proven the viability of electric vehicles, Tesla is building batteries and solar technologies that could shake up the global energy industry.

Now, tech companies are building sensor devices that monitor health. With artificial intelligence, these will be able to provide better analysis of medical data than doctors can. Apple’s ResearchKit is gathering so much clinical-trial data that it could eventually upend the pharmaceutical industry by correlating the effectiveness and side effects of the medications we take.

As well, Google, Facebook, SpaceX and Oneweb are in a race to provide Wi-Fi internet access everywhere through drones, microsatellites and balloons. At first, they will use the telecom companies to provide their services; then they will turn the telecom companies into toast. The motivation of the technology industry is, after all, to have everyone online all the time. The industry’s business models are to monetize data rather than to charge cell, data or access fees. They will also end up disrupting electronic entertainment—and every other industry that deals with information.

The disruptions don’t happen within an industry, as business executives have been taught by gurus such as Clayton Christensen, author of management bible “The Innovator’s Dilemma”; rather, the disruptions come from where you would least expect them to. Christensen postulated that companies tend to ignore the markets most susceptible to disruptive innovations because these markets usually have very tight profit margins or are too small, leading competitors to start by providing lower-end products and then scale them up, or to go for niches in a market that the incumbent is ignoring. But the competition no longer comes from the lower end of a market; it comes from other, completely different industries.

The problem for incumbents, the market leaders, is that they aren’t ready for this disruption and are often in denial.

Because they have succeeded in the past, companies believe that they can succeed in the future, that old business models can support new products. Large companies are usually organized into divisions and functional silos, each with its own product development, sales, marketing, customer support and finance functions. Each division acts from self-interest and focuses on its own success; within a fortress that protects its ideas, it has its own leadership and culture. And employees focus on the problems of their own divisions or departments—not on those of the company. Too often, the divisions of a company consider their competitors to be the company’s other divisions; they can’t envisage new industries or see the threat from other industries.

This is why the majority of today’s leading companies are likely to go the way of Blockbuster, Motorola, Sears and Kodak, which were at the top of their game until their markets were disrupted, sending them toward oblivion.

See also: How to Respond to Industry Disruption  

Companies now have to be on a war footing. They need to learn about technology advances and see themselves as a technology startup in Silicon Valley would: as a juicy target for disruption. They have to realize that the threat may arise in any industry, with any new technology. Companies need all hands on board — with all divisions working together employing bold new thinking to find ways to reinvent themselves and defend themselves from the onslaught of new competition.

The choice that leaders face is to disrupt themselves—or to be disrupted.

Which to Choose: Innovation, Disruption?

Most executives are averse to risks but, ironically, create the risk of being leapfrogged by unforeseen competitors. Executives focus on innovation but only look for a new idea, device or methodology that incrementally provides greater efficiency or effectiveness, like the fifth blade in a razor or higher-resolution HDTVs.

This sort of innovation, sometimes referred to as a sustaining innovation, is not the same as out-of-the-box thinking that leads to disruption.

To be sure, sustaining innovation can sometimes produce great success. Google displaced Yahoo as the de facto search engine and web mail provider through incremental, in-house innovations, not through a disruptive strategy.

Nevertheless, most companies, including insurers, are now being forced to change their products, service models or delivery systems because of threats from outside the mainstream in the industry.

Management and marketing efforts have traditionally touted incremental, continuous improvements — using words like “faster,” “bigger,” “better” or “more efficient” — as a reason why clientele should remain loyal and why business should even expand. The incumbent mature market leaders, no matter how visionary they think they are, often ignore opportunities to invest in disruptive business strategies. Netflix beat Blockbuster in the consumer video market starting in 1997 by coming up with a new business model for DVDs  by mail and by investing in the nascent technology of on-demand, downloading of video content while Blockbuster stayed with its traditional business model of renting DVDs in stores and kiosks.

See also: Does Your Culture Embrace Innovation?

Disruption is created through inventions or processes that transform and overturn the way we think, behave, buy products, communicate, travel and go about our daily business. It doesn’t have to be based on new technology. Disruption, unlike incremental innovation, displaces an existing market, industry or technology by reimagining something more efficient and wildly better. Disruption looks at the underlying principles and values of a product or service, then rethinks solutions.

Disruption is aimed at a set of consumers whose needs are largely ignored by industry leaders. A disruptive innovation trades off performance along one dimension for performance along another, such as simplicity, convenience, values, ability to customize and transparent pricing.

Initially, some disruptive models from a niche market (like Uber or Lyft) may appear unattractive to consumers or inconsequential to industry incumbents, but eventually many of these disruptive or enlightened approaches to business opportunities completely redefine the industry. New brands have turned their industries upside down. In fact, smaller companies with fewer resources have knocked many brand name incumbents out of business. Once mainstream customers start adopting an entrepreneurial entrant’s offerings in volume, disruption has occurred.

Shilen Patel, founder of business accelerator Independents United, says: “Simply put, innovation is rational whereas disruption is irrational.”

Most outrageous business ideas have had loud critics. Not disruption. Companies like Google (Alphabet) thrive by taking crazy ideas called moonshots at a devastating pace and seeing if they can make them believable, deliverable and profitable, knowing that just a small percentage of the ideas will work.

So how does a business decide if it needs to innovate or reinvent itself to remain competitive?

Corporate executives must ask themselves if their industry is facing unpredictable changes, then decide how much control they have over that change. As Mark Zuckerberg once said: “If we don’t create the thing that kills Facebook, someone else will.”

Companies now run the risk of cross-industry disruption, where a high-tech company takes over autonomous transportation or even an industry like insurance. Amazon did just that with retail and is now considering its own drone delivery system, its own shipping fleet and 3D printing to disrupt certain supply industries.

See also: 6 Key Ways to Drive Innovation

The University of Southern California in 2014 began offering a program for entrepreneurs referred to as “a Degree in Disruption.” Venture capitalist Josh Linkner’s book, The Road to Reinvention, argues that “fickle consumer trends, friction-free markets and political unrest…along with mind-numbing technology advances,” mean that “the time has come to panic as you’ve never panicked before.” Twenty years ago, the disruption in manufacturing was offshoring. Now, the disruptions are technologies like 3D printing, artificial intelligence, transportation innovations and robotics — and are bringing manufacturing jobs back to home markets. 

Investments in sustaining innovations obviously make sense for most companies, but some may choose to strengthen their ultimate market position by investing in enterprises that don’t necessarily align themselves with their core business strategies.

Partly because of disruptive innovation, the average job tenure for the CEO of a Fortune 500 company has halved from ten years in 2000 to less than five years today. Eventually, foothold market companies may have to decide on the strategic choice of taking a sustaining, traditional path versus a disruptive one. The same forces that lead incumbent industries to ignore early-stage disruptions also compel disrupters to ultimately disrupt.

But if a company’s innovations do change consumer behaviors and force a redrawing and expansion of market boundaries that separate its new business from the culture and processes of old ones – then you really have something.

Innovation: a Need for ‘Patient Urgency’

In corporate innovation, little else matters if your timing is wrong.

Moving too fast killed Ron Johnson’s attempts to turn around J.C. Penney. Johnson plunged too quickly into a wholesale remake of the century-old chain’s stores. He didn’t take time to test alternative possibilities—even though, as the developer of the Apple stores, he experimented with every little detail for months in a mock-up before going to market. Johnson also threw out Penney’s long-standing sales strategy. He got rid of discounts—and alienated tons of existing customers—before validating that his new approach would attract enough new customers.

Moving too slowly killed Blockbuster. It ignored Netflix’s subscription-based, DVDs-by-mail model for years. Then, afraid that it was too late, it bet big on its own version even though it had dire economic and operational implications.

Precise timing, however, is a fool’s errand. Disruptive innovations, by definition, deal with future scenarios that are hard to read and where neither the right strategy nor timing is clear. How can you project customer interest for a product that customers haven’t yet seen? How can you deliver detailed timelines and budgets when new products depend on technology breakthroughs?  The strategy has to emerge over time. The timing has to be opportunistic.

To deal with the vagaries of innovation, leaders at Blockbuster, Penney and hundreds of other large-company innovation failures that I’ve studied would have benefited from a strong dose of “patient urgency.”

See Also: Does Your Culture Embrace Innovation?

Patient urgency is one of the distinguishing traits that John Sviokla and Mitch Cohen identified in their study of 120 self-made billionaires, as reported in their excellent book “The Self-Made Billionaire Effect: How Extreme Producers Create Massive Value.” Patient urgency is the combination of foresight to prepare for a big idea, willingness to wait for the right market conditions and agility to act straight away when conditions ripen.

Sviokla and Cohen found that their subjects were no better prognosticators than other people—“they cannot predict the exact right time to make an investment or to bring a product to market.” They did not, however, sit back and wait. Neither did they just jump in and hope for the best. They learned about the market, made early investments and deals, tested ideas in the market and actively made improvements and adjustments. When the market became ripe, they were ready.

The Sviokla and Cohen finding squares with my research and experience.

Reed Hastings of Netflix, for example, knew from Day One that people would eventually stream their movies over the Internet. He experimented with different versions of streaming video for more than a decade. He repeatedly killed ventures when he saw they would not quite work. When the conditions were right, he moved quickly to transform Netflix into a huge streaming business.

Google’s driverless car program is another great example of patient urgency. As I’ve discussed, driverless cars have the potential to save millions of lives and throw trillions of dollars in existing revenue up for grabs while sending a tsunami of business disruption across multiple industries. Google has methodically developed potentially differentiated technology in this fertile arena while keeping its options open on how to capture the resulting business value.

The problem for most large companies, however, is that neither “we’ll figure it as we go” nor “we’ll launch when the market is right” fit with traditional planning mindsets. Operating budgets hate uncertainty. They demand detailed, time-lined projections of human resources, costs and revenue—even when those demands just yield guesses disguised as numbers. This severely limits experimentation, adaption and risk taking.

To break the organizational tendencies that dampen corporate innovation, here are three ways to encourage patient urgency:

1. Think big. Focus on big ideas that have the potential to build massive value. Develop vivid alternative future scenarios to illuminate how existing businesses might get crushed or, in a kinder world, be transformed because of disruptive innovations. Getting everyone on the same page about the stakes involved will help the organization start earlier and bide its time longer.

2. Structure early investments like financial options rather than full-fledged go-to-market plans. Ideas that could turn into multibillion-dollar businesses do not deserve billions in investments right away. Invest millions, or even tens of thousands, to test and elaborate them. Each stage of funding should focus on clarifying key questions like whether the product can be built, whether it meets real customer needs, whether it can beat the competition and whether it makes strategic sense. The goal is to invest a little at a time to develop the idea while preserving the right but not making the commitment to launch the innovation.

3. Budget for innovation as a portfolio of options. Rather than force detailed projections for individual options, plan and budget at the portfolio level. As I’ve previously discussed, the overall allocation and prioritization of the innovation portfolio should depend on a company’s investment capabilities and competitive circumstances. This limits the overall risk while allowing flexibility to shift investments between individual initiatives based on experimental results and shifting market conditions. The portfolio approach also demands that multiple (potentially competing) options be tested—thereby short-circuiting the tendency to focus on one all-or-nothing bet.

See Also: Innovation Trends in 2016

Patient urgency avoids the large-company tendency to swing from complacency to panic. It loosens the constraints of shortsightedness and inappropriate planning models that lull large companies into thinking incrementally for too long, as Blockbuster did. It also lessens the chances of being late to the game and having to risk everything on a single desperate idea, like Penney, only to have it not pan out.