Tag Archives: autonomous vehicle

Emerging Technology in Personal Lines

Personal lines insurers are investigating emerging technologies and developing strategies and plans related to individual new technologies. Technology is advancing so rapidly that it is even difficult to define what should be considered an emerging technology. For the past several years, SMA has been tracking 13 technologies that many consider to be emerging. These include technologies such as autonomous vehicles, AI, wearables and the Internet of Things. In our recent research, five of these technologies have emerged as “power players” for personal lines insurers, based on the level of insurer activity and the potential for transformation. The specific plans by insurers for these and other technologies are detailed in the SMA report, Emerging Tech in Personal Lines: Broad Implications, Significant Activity.

See also: 2018’s Top Projects in Personal Lines  

Some big themes for emerging tech in personal lines stand out:

  • Artificial Intelligence dominates. AI is often a misunderstood and misused term. However, when specific technologies that are part of the AI family are evaluated, much activity is underway – by insurers, insurtech startups and mature tech vendors. Chatbots, robotic process automation (RPA), machine learning, natural language processing (NLP) and others are the subjects of many strategies, pilots and implementations.
  • The Autonomous Vehicle frenzy is cooling.There is still an acute awareness of the potential of autonomous vehicles to dramatically alter the private passenger auto insurance market. But there is also the realization that, despite the hype, the transition is likely to be a long one, and the big implications for insurers are probably 10 or more years out.
  • The IoT is going mainstream. Discussions continue about the transformational potential of the IoT for all lines of business. But rather than just talking about the possibilities, there is now a great deal of partnering, piloting and live implementation underway. We are still in the early stages of incorporating the IoT into strategies and insurance products and services, but their use is becoming more widespread every day.
  • UI Options are dramatically expanding. The many new ways to interact with prospects, policyholders, agents, claimants and others should now be considered in omni-channel plans. Messaging platforms, voice, chatbots and more are becoming preferred ways to communicate for certain customer segments.

See also: Insurtech and Personal Lines  

Certainly, other trends and much emerging tech activity are happening outside these main themes. Wearables, new payment technologies, drones, blockchain and other technologies are being incorporated into strategies, pilots and investment plans. The next few years promise to be quite exciting as advancing technologies spark more innovation in the industry.

7 Wonders of the Driverless Future

Arthur C. Clarke, who knew a thing or two about futuristic technology, observed, “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” His observation certainly applies to driverless cars.

In a recent Forbes article, I made the case that strategists, policy makers, regulators and other stakeholders needed to exercise “patient urgency” in balancing the hope and fear inspired by driverless cars.

It is worth highlighting the hope—in the form of the seven huge societal benefits that driverless cars would deliver. It is a magical list.

1.  Reduce injuries and deaths

Americans were in more than 6 million police-reported car crashes in 2014. As a result, more than 2.3 million individuals suffered serious injuries, and 32,675 were killed. Worldwide, more than 50 million people are injured each year, and more than 1.2 million are killed. Globally, road traffic crashes are a leading cause of death among young people, and the main cause of death among those aged 15–29 years.

Human error caused more than 90% of those crashes, and, in recent years, accident and fatality rates have gone up—due in large part to distracted driving.

See Also: How to Picture the Future of Driverless

Driverless cars, which promise to see better and react faster than humans while never getting sleepy, drunk or distracted, offer the possibility of dramatically reducing driver error and the resultant human suffering.

Consider the relative magnitude of success: A 25% reduction in auto-accident-induced fatalities would save more lives than curing leukemia; a 75% reduction would save more lives than eliminating suicide.

2.  Lower accident-inflicted costs

The economic cost of driver error is also horrific. NHTSA estimated in 2010 that vehicle accidents inflicted $242 billion in economic costs (medical costs, property damage, lost productivity, legal and court costs, emergency service costs, insurance administration costs, congestion costs and workplace losses). The total cost rises to $836 billion when the impact to quality of life is taken into account. Globally, the World Health Organization estimates that 3% of GDP is lost to road traffic deaths and injuries.

These costs are inflicted not just on those involved but also on society as a whole. Each year, in the U.S., more than $218 billion is spent on auto insurance premiums. Motor vehicle accidents also make up one of the largest categories of disability and workman’s compensation claims. Worldwide, approximately $700 billion is spent on auto insurance.

3.  Reduce resource consumption

Driverless cars offer the hope of tremendous savings beyond the high price of accidents. Donald Shoup estimates that 30% of urban center traffic is due to drivers looking for parking. Driverless cars could deliver their passengers to their destination and drive away, eliminating the need to hunt for parking or walk back to the office.

Morgan Stanley estimates that avoiding congestion due to the hunt for parking could translate into $11 billion in fuel savings across the U.S. each year. This $11 billion is the smallest category of efficiency and accident cost avoidance delivered by this technology. By Morgan Stanley’s estimate, the total savings in the U.S. could reach $1.3 trillion.

4.  Reduce transportation cost

Driverless cars could enable driverless taxi services at prices much lower than individual car ownership or human-driven car services. KPMG, for example, estimates that such services could cost 48% less than the cost of individual car ownership on a per-mile basis—while also eliminating the high up-front cost and the time required for maintenance and regulatory compliance.

Similarly, in a study at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, Larry Burns and William Jordon estimate that driverless taxis would offer 90% savings over human-driven car services.

Considering that the average American household spends 19% of income on transportation (the largest category after housing), these cost savings will make a tangible difference in every American’s life.

5.  Enhance quality of life

The reduced cost of mobility coupled with the availability of high-quality, on-demand, point-to-point transportation would enhance freedom, independence and self-reliance for many seniors and people with disabilities. It would also reduce the substantial burden on the individual, family and community caregivers.

An estimated 8.4 million seniors in the U.S. cannot drive. As baby boomers age, the number of seniors is expected to grow quickly, effectively doubling from 43 million in 2012 to 82.3 million in 2040.

12% of the roughly 50 million Americans with disabilities report difficulty getting the transportation that they need, with the reason cited most often being no or limited public transportation.

Those who could otherwise drive would benefit, as well, through increased productivity and reduced stress as chauffeured passengers instead of drivers. The typical American commuter, for example, could use the 50-minute daily commute for in-car work and leisure rather than having to focus on driving. For America’s 120 million workers, that adds up to 6 billion minutes per day.

6.  Increase economic mobility

For the poor and economically disadvantaged, more affordable mobility would enable increased economic mobility by allowing faster and cheaper transportation to jobs in a wider geographical region—especially to those areas not well-served by public transportation.

longitudinal study conducted by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren at Harvard has shown that commuting time is the most important factor to the odds of escaping poverty. New York University’s Rudin Center for Transportation conducted a study that came to a similar conclusion.

Autonomous vehicles would not only give disadvantaged Americans access to better job opportunities, but also better access to schools, stores and services.

7.  Accelerate Vehicle Electrification

92% of American transportation is dependent on petroleum. Not only does burning this fuel create pollution, but it also makes America dependent on foreign suppliers.

Autonomous vehicles offer a remedy, because they will in most cases be electric. There is a virtuous cycle in which autonomous vehicles lead to vehicle sharing, which in turn leads to high vehicle utilization, favoring the low marginal cost of electric vehicles. This would not only cut emissions and pollution from vehicles but also dramatically cut petroleum dependency.

* * *

As I’ve previously acknowledged, a vast number of technical and implementation challenges have to be overcome before these societal benefits can be reaped. World-class engineers and scientists stand on either side of the question about whether these challenges can be adequately addressed.

Arthur C. Clarke was one of the believers. Clarke predicted in 1962 that “the automobile of the day-after-tomorrow will not be driven by its owner, but by itself.”

See Also: Lack of Enthusiasm for Driverless Cars?

More generally, Clarke also had something to say about seemingly impossible challenges. He observed, “The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.”

As to the arguments of world-class engineers and scientists, Clarke had this to offer:

When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.

Let’s hope that the distinguished Arthur C. Clarke was right.

6 Technologies That Will Define 2016

Please join me for “Path to Transformation,” an event I am putting on May 10 and 11 at the Plug and Play accelerator in Silicon Valley in conjunction with Insurance Thought Leadership. The event will not only explore the sorts of technological breakthroughs I describe in this article but will explain how companies can test and absorb the technologies, in ways that then lead to startling (and highly profitable) innovation. My son and I have been teaching these events around the world, and I hope to see you in May. You can sign up here.

Over the past century, the price and performance of computing has been on an exponential curve. And, as futurist Ray Kurzweil observed, once any technology becomes an information technology, its development follows the same curve. So, we are seeing exponential advances in technologies such as sensors, networks, artificial intelligence and robotics. The convergence of these technologies is making amazing things possible.

Last year was the tipping point in the global adoption of the Internet, digital medical devices, blockchain, gene editing, drones and solar energy. This year will be the beginning of an even bigger revolution, one that will change the way we live, let us visit new worlds and lead us into a jobless future. However, with every good thing, there comes a bad; wonderful things will become possible, but with them we will create new problems for mankind.

Here are six of the technologies that will make the change happen.

1. Artificial intelligence

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There is merit to the criticism of AI—even though computers have beaten chess masters and Jeopardy players and have learned to talk to us and drive cars. AI such as Siri and Cortana is still imperfect and infuriating. Yes, those two systems crack jokes and tell us the weather, but they are nothing like the seductive digital assistant we saw in the movie “Her.” In the artificial-intelligence community, there is a common saying: “AI is whatever hasn’t been done yet.” People call this the “AI effect.” Skeptics discount the behavior of an artificial intelligence program by arguing that, rather than being real intelligence, it is just brute force computing and algorithms.

But this is about to change, to the point even the skeptics will say that AI has arrived. There have been major advances in “deep learning” neural networks, which learn by ingesting large amounts of data. IBM has taught its AI system, Watson, everything from cooking, to finance, to medicine and to Facebook. Google and Microsoft have made great strides in face recognition and human-like speech systems. AI-based face recognition, for example, has almost reached human capability. And IBM Watson can diagnose certain cancers better than any human doctor can.

With IBM Watson being made available to developers, Google open-sourcing its deep-learning AI software and Facebook releasing the designs of its specialized AI hardware, we can expect to see a broad variety of AI applications emerging because entrepreneurs all over the world are taking up the baton. AI will be wherever computers are, and it will seem human-like.

Fortunately, we don’t need to worry about superhuman AI yet; that is still a decade or two away.

2. Robots

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The 2015 DARPA Robotics Challenge required robots to navigate over an eight-task course that simulated a disaster zone. It was almost comical to see them moving at the speed of molasses, freezing up and falling over. Forget folding laundry and serving humans; these robots could hardly walk. While we heard some three years ago that Foxconn would replace a million workers with robots in its Chinese factories, it never did so.

Breakthroughs may, however, be at hand. To begin with, a new generation of robots is being introduced by companies—such as Switzerland’s ABB, Denmark’s Universal Robots, and Boston’s Rethink Robotics—robots dextrous enough to thread a needle and sensitive enough to work alongside humans. They can assemble circuits and pack boxes. We are at the cusp of the industrial-robot revolution.

Household robots are another matter. Household tasks may seem mundane, but they are incredibly difficult for machines to perform. Cleaning a room and folding laundry necessitate software algorithms that are more complex than those required to land a man on the moon. But there have been many breakthroughs of late, largely driven by AI, enabling robots to learn certain tasks by themselves and by teaching each other what they have learned. And with the open source robotic operating system (ROS), thousands of developers worldwide are getting close to perfecting the algorithms.

Don’t be surprised when robots start showing up in supermarkets and malls—and in our homes. Remember Rosie, the robotic housekeeper from the TV series “The Jetsons”?  I am expecting version No. 1 to begin shipping in the early 2020s.

3. Self-driving cars

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Once considered to be in the realm of science fiction, autonomous cars made big news in 2015. Google crossed the million-mile mark with its prototypes; Tesla began releasing functionality in its cars; and major car manufacturers announced their plans for robocars. These cars are coming, whether or not we are ready. And, just as the robots will, they will learn from each other—about the landscape of our roads and the bad habits of humans.

In the next year or two, we will see fully functional robocars being tested on our highways, and then they will take over our roads. Just as the horseless carriage threw horses off the roads, these cars will displace us humans. Because they won’t crash into each other as we humans do, the robocars won’t need the bumper bars or steel cages, so they will be more comfortable and lighter. Most will be electric. We also won’t have to worry about parking spots, because they will be able to drop us where we want to go to and pick us up when we are ready. We won’t even need to own our own cars, because transportation will be available on demand through our smartphones. Best of all, we won’t need speed limits, so distance will be less of a barrier—enabling us to leave the cities and suburbs.

4. Virtual reality and holodecks

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In March, Facebook announced the availability of its much-anticipated virtual reality headset, Oculus Rift. And Microsoft, Magic Leap and dozens of startups aren’t far behind with their new technologies. The early versions of these products will surely be expensive and clumsy and cause dizziness and other adverse reactions, but prices will fall, capabilities will increase and footprints will shrink as is the case with all exponential technologies. 2016 will mark the beginning of the virtual reality revolution.

Virtual reality will change how we learn and how we entertain ourselves. Our children’s education will become experiential, because they will be able to visit ancient Greece and journey within the human body. We will spend our lunchtimes touring far-off destinations and our evenings playing laser tag with friends who are thousands of miles away. And, rather than watching movies at IMAX theaters, we will be able to be part of the action, virtually in the back seat of every big-screen car chase.

5. Internet of Things

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Mark Zuckerberg recently announced plans to create his own artificially intelligent, voice-controlled butler to help run his life at home and at work. For this, he will need appliances that can talk to his digital butler: a connected home, office and car. These are all coming, as CES, the big consumer electronics tradeshow in Las Vegas, demonstrated. From showerheads that track how much water we’ve used, to toothbrushes that watch out for cavities, to refrigerators that order food that is running out, all these items are on their way.

Starting in 2016, everything will be be connected, including our homes and appliances, our cars, street lights and medical instruments. These will be sharing information with each other (perhaps even gossiping about us) and will introduce massive security risks as well as many efficiencies. We won’t have much choice because they will be standard features—just as are the cameras on our smart TVs that stare at us and the smartphones that listen to everything we say.

6. Space

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Rockets, satellites and spaceships were things that governments built. That is, until Elon Musk stepped into the ring in 2002 with his startup SpaceX. A decade later, he demonstrated the ability to dock a spacecraft with the International Space Station and return with cargo. A year later, he launched a commercial geostationary satellite. And then, in 2015, out of the blue, came another billionaire, Jeff Bezos, whose space company Blue Origin launched a rocket 100 kilometers into space and landed its booster within five feet of its launch pad. SpaceX achieved the feat a month later.

It took a space race in the 1960s between the U.S. and the USSR to even get man to the moon. For decades after this, little more happened, because there was no one for the U.S. to compete with. Now, thanks to technology costs falling so far that space exploration can be done for millions—rather than billions—of dollars and the raging egos of two billionaires, we will see the breakthroughs in space travel that we have been waiting for. Maybe there’ll be nothing beyond some rocket launches and a few competitive tweets between Musk and Bezos in 2016, but we will be closer to having colonies on Mars.

This surely is the most innovative period in human history, an era that will be remembered as the inflection point in exponential technologies that made the impossible possible.

How to Picture the Future of Driverless

Picture this:

The year is 2025. A call comes to the police station—someone has broken into a local home. A drone is deployed to the address and arrives within five minutes. The drone feeds video to the station and to the closest autonomous (driverless) police vehicle. The drone guides the police car to the location. The officer in the car (we’ll assume he’s human, for now!) isn’t actually driving; he’s an occupant, watching the drone’s video feed. He can see the suspect fleeing, and he researches other crimes in the neighborhood along with potential suspects. The drone estimates the perp’s height and weight, and the officer can see his clothing and a possible gun in his belt. The police officer communicates with other officers in the area to coordinate the capture. As the suspect runs, his description and location is fed constantly to all nearby police vehicles, and he is surrounded within 15 minutes of the initial call.

This is far from fiction. The international consulting firm Frost and Sullivan predicts that 180,000 driverless cars will hit the U.S. market in 2020. That’s less than 1% of today’s annual new car market, but that’s just the beginning!

Just about every major car manufacturer (as well as Google, of course) is developing autonomous vehicles, and the competition is getting  more intense as the demand for collision avoidance features grows. Just as drones are spreading (if not yet regulated), driverless cars will become widely accepted. Americans love to drive, but there are too many undeniable advantages to autonomous cars.

The first one is safety. According to the U.S. Insurance Institute for Highway Safety  (IIHS), 94% of all car accidents are caused by human error. Nearly two million crashes could be avoided if human error were eliminated. That’s not to say that driverless vehicles won’t crash, but, as the technology improves, crash rates will drop like a rock. In 2025, if our roads are still packed with commuters, the occupants of many vehicles will be reading, answering emails, video conferencing and browsing the web. In other words, they’ll be working. A recent Morgan Stanley report predicted that driverless cars could add $5.6 trillion (yes, with a ‘T’) to the global economy because of the combination of a steep reduction in accidents and the dramatic increase in productivity. It is estimated that in 2035 autonomous cars will account for 25% of all cars.

Back to the police force. As driverless cars evolve, routine traffic monitoring will drop, high-speed chases will slowly decline (with drone help) and smaller police forces will focus on more serious crime. Cameras will capture everything—both from the ground and the sky. Officers will become highly trained in electronic law enforcement. Efficiency will rule!

Of course, these are just predicted outcomes. This policing panacea isn’t all roses; it will not eliminate the need for community relationships, direct contact with neighborhoods and personal contact in law enforcement. Furthermore, while vehicle collisions will fall, the cost and maintenance of autonomous cars will remain extremely expensive in the near future. Currently, it costs about $150,000 to equip a driverless car. But that cost will drop to $7,000 by 2030 and to $3,000 by 2035.

Nothing’s perfect. Every emerging concept or technology brings unexpected challenges and unintended consequences. But it appears that autonomous automobiles will emerge soon, and it’s likely that some day we’ll say they are “here to stay.”

For today, I guess I’ll have to drive myself home. What a chore.

industries

Outsiders Retreat From Insurance

Cargill, Monsanto, Wells Fargo and John Deere are officially out of the crop insurance business, according to a recent article from Bloomberg. Large companies like these expanded into different aspects of the agriculture industry over the past few years, and their debut in the insurance industry made quite an impact. With their newly acquired insurance operations, they were the market players to watch – and now we’re watching them leave the industry.

Behind this exodus is the matter of profit. Large companies, especially those that are publicly traded like Monsanto and John Deere, have a different perspective on risk and profit than the typical insurer.

Let’s take crop insurance profit and loss over the past couple years, which is driven by fluctuations in crop prices. As Bloomberg explained, “Bumper harvests have sent corn, the biggest U.S. crop, to less than half its 2012 peak, ratcheting down the premiums farmers pay to insure against loss. Other crops have also seen steep price declines.” At the same time, the broader insurance industry has been seeing lackluster results. The most recent numbers from the Congressional Research Service indicate an underwriting loss of $1.3 billion in 2012 and profit of $657 million in 2013. For insurers, although these are not welcome results, the reality is that there will be challenging years – and insurers are accustomed to anticipating them. They are in for the long haul. But large, diversified commercial companies such as Cargill, John Deere and Monsanto have a much harder time adjusting to these financial results.

So, were these big external players a collective blip on the map, or a real disruption? A pattern visible across many industries offers a possible answer. Large companies diversify around their current offerings, and, if the results are disappointing, they realize the expanded offerings are not core to their business. Google has been extremely successful in most of its diversification, but Google+, its social network offering, never became the powerhouse the compay had hoped would challenge Facebook. If these large companies are unsuccessful, they often leave the new industry.

This is not to downplay the role that new entrants have in the insurance ecosystem. They push our thinking and ways of doing business in directions that might otherwise have taken years for the industry to adopt. New players like Haven Life and Google are not attempting to be the same old insurer, only better. Their goal is to disrupt the business of insurance and to create something in a niche that the industry had not perceived. The disruption they cause can take many forms, from new solutions to new distribution channels. They can go after these markets without owning the entire process – and, in doing so, they create real changes in how the insurance industry has to operate.

Driverless cars will present similar challenges. Volvo and Ford have both mentioned the possibility of covering product liability insurance. How will this affect the insurance industry? Will automakers really cover the liability, or will they front it? Autonomous vehicles will change the insurance landscape by opening doors for these new thinkers. But will the insurance industry need to step in to present new insurance products that provide the necessary coverage? What role will insurers play in the new auto world?

Disrupters like Monsanto, Cargill and John Deere were not in the market for a long time, but they do have an impact. They invested in changing the claims process, and they applied data, analytics and automation in areas that were previously very manual – which causes us to rethink other processes. We can hope that their new ways of doing business opened some eyes in the industry. They did not change the game so much as establish that the game needs to be changed.